Poll: Charlie Crist begins General Election campaign vs. Anna Paulina Luna with16-point lead

U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist begins the General Election campaign for Florida’s 13th Congressional District with a 16-point lead over Republican challenger Anna Paulina Luna.

This is according to the latest St. Pete Polls survey of the Pinellas County-based seat.

Sixteen points is about the same margin of victory by which Crist defeated Republican George Buck in 2018.

Luna is a Donald Trump acolyte who surged in August to win the Republican Primary against Amanda Makki, who many observers regarded as a more moderate — and therefore electable — candidate.

Luna ran on a platform mostly shared among conservative candidates nationwide, painting Crist as a socialist-aligned Democrat who must be taken down at all costs.

That platform may have been the right message in a GOP primary, but it’s unclear how Luna can beat the as-popular-as-ever Crist in a district where Democrats hold a nearly 27,000 voter edge.

The Democrats’ advantage in CD 13 bears out in this poll, which asked respondents who they support for President.

Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by 14 points (54%-40%). That should be welcome news to the Biden campaign since Trump lost CD 13 by just four points to Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Democrats are more active in CD 13 than Republicans, according to a St. Pete Polls analysis of all registered voters in the district. For the sake of this analysis, St. Pete Polls considered an active voter any voter who cast a ballot in the last four years.

Democrats comprise 38% of all registered voters in the district, compared to just 33% Republicans. Of those, 40% of registered Democrats are considered active while 36% of registered Republicans were.

In even more good news for Crist, Democrats have grown their voting base since 2016, while Republicans actually lost voters. The percentage of overall registered Democrats in CD 13 rose 0.1% from 2016 to 2020, while Republicans lost 0.5% of their voting base.

Not surprisingly, Crist leads overwhelmingly among Democrats with 82% support. He only has support among 22% of registered Republicans, though his share of cross-party support is higher than Luna’s 12% support among Democrats.

Crist also leads among independent voters, 57% to 35%.

Crist leads in all racial demographics except Asian or Pacific Islanders, among whom support Luna with 52.5% to 40%. However, of the 2,160 likely voters polled, only 40 fell into that demographic, making the lead statistically insignificant.

Crist’s largest lead is among Black voters, a demographic in which he leads Luna 85% to 9.5%.

The race is closest among White voters, where 51% support Crist compared to just 43% for Luna.

Crist also leads among both genders, with 54% support among male voters and 55% among women. Luna claimed just 40% support among men and 38% among women.

CD 13 voters also largely disapprove of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ job performance with 50% disapproving and 41% approving. The rest were unsure.