Janelle Irwin Taylor
Signaling a tight race and a potential upset, Democrat Julie Jenkins leads incumbent Republican Rep. Jackie Toledo by six points in a new poll.
A St. Pete Polls survey among 466 likely HD 60 voters showed Jenkins leading outside the margin of error 48% to 42% with 10% undecided.
It’s a remarkable shift in a district Toledo won in 2018 by four points and in 2016 by 14 points and where Republicans carry 37% of registered voters compared to just 33.5% for Democrats.
The poll suggests what Democrats have been hoping — that President Donald Trump would negatively affect down-ballot races — is happening.
Trump narrowly claimed the district over Hillary Clinton in 2016 by less than a point, but is far behind former Vice President Joe Biden in the latest poll by seven points, with Biden claiming 51% of the vote to Trump’s 44%. Only 3% of voters are undecided in the district while only 1% plan to vote third party.
Likewise, Gov. Ron DeSantis’ job approval is down in the district with 47% disapproving of his job performance and only 44% approving. DeSantis carried the district in 2018 by less than half a point over Andrew Gillum.
Demographic breakdowns also show a potential disenchantment with Republican candidates, with Jenkins claiming more cross party votes than Toledo. While Toledo received support from less than 11% of Democrats, Jenkins earned support from more than 21% of Republicans.
The poll surveyed more Republicans than Democrats, 186 to 167, respectively.
Jenkins also leads among independent voters 47% to 42.5%.
Toledo leads among White voters 44% to 46%; Asian or Pacific Islanders 60% to 40% and Hispanic voters 45% to 38%. Jenkins leads among Black voters 78% to 12.5%. White voters made up the majority of those polled with 354 responses.
Jenkins leads significantly among male voters 51% to 42%, but only narrowly among women voters, 44% to 43%.
Jenkins’ lead comes despite a significant funding disadvantage. As of Sept. 4 Toledo had raised nearly $378,000 with another nearly $33,000 in support, mostly from the Republican Party of Florida for polling, staff and research. She has more than $183,000 still on hand.
Meanwhile, Jenkins raised less than $123,000 and has about $100,000 still on hand. She also had a $40,000 boost through in-kind contributions, a large chunk from the Florida Democratic Party for research.
Toledo’s $83,000 cash advantage means she’ll have the resources to counter the latest poll. Both parties have shown, however, they’re willing to weigh in heavily on the race.
The poll had a 4.5% margin of error.
