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2020

Jennifer Webb leads Linda Chaney by nearly 10 points in HD 69

President Donald Trump is behind nearly 15 points in the district.

Rep. Jennifer Webb leads her Republican challenger by nearly 10 points, according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls released Tuesday.

The poll shows Webb with 49.5% support compared to just 40% support for Linda Chaney.

While the margin is large, and outside the poll’s 4.1% margin of error, it’s less than the nearly 15-point advantage former Vice President Joe Biden has in the district against President Donald Trump. Biden leads in House District 69 55.5% to 41%.

The district, which includes parts of Pinellas County including the south Gulf beaches, west St. Petersburg and Gulfport, has a razor-thin edge for Democrats, who comprise 35.6% of the electorate while Republicans hold 35.3%.

However, that narrow advantage is evaporated when considering turnout tendencies. Of Republicans, 38.3% are active voters, those who have voted in at least one election in the past four years, while only 37.8% of Democrats have voted in the last four years.

The poll shows Webb claiming a large share of Republican voters with 23% planning to cast a ballot for her over the Republican. Meanwhile, Chaney only claims support from 10% of Democrats.

Webb also leads among White voters 49% to 41%. Black voters overwhelmingly are breaking for Webb with only 9% supporting Chaney.

Webb leads in every age demographic, with her largest lead among those age 30-49. There’s a nearly 12 point spread among those voters.

Younger voters, those between 18 and 29, favor Webb 42% to 35%. Older voters 50-69 favor Webb 49% to 40% and seniors 70 and older break for Webb 49% to 41%.

The topline numbers in the House contest are paralleled by Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ standing in the district, with St. Pete Polls finding 41% approve of his job performance and 52% disapprove.

Webb’s lead is just outside the share of undecided voters, which is 11% in the poll.

Webb first won election in 2018 against Ray Blacklidge by six points. She lost four years ago to then-Republican incumbent Kathleen Peters, now a Pinellas County Commissioner, 43% to 57%, a similar margin to Webb’s now lead as an incumbent.

In 2016, the district broke for Trump 49% to 46%, showing yet another shift in support for the President as he seeks reelection. The latest polling shows a nearly 18 point shift away from Trump in the district, a trend that is happening countywide. A previous St. Pete Polls survey showed Biden with a 13 point advantage in Pinellas, a 15 point difference from Trump’s victory in the county four years ago.

St. Pete Polls also found nearly three-quarters plan to cast their ballot by mail, including 77% of Democrats, 77% of independents and 69% of Republicans.

The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday among 567 likely voters.

Janelle Irwin Taylor has been a professional journalist covering local news and politics in Tampa Bay since 2003. Most recently, Janelle reported for the Tampa Bay Business Journal. She formerly served as senior reporter for WMNF News. Janelle has a lust for politics and policy. When she’s not bringing you the day’s news, you might find Janelle enjoying nature with her husband, children and two dogs. You can reach Janelle at Janelle@floridapolitics.com.

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