Joe Henderson
Florida’s 15th Congressional District is traditionally friendly ground for Republicans. Projections mostly agree that it will be again, but maybe not as comfortably as GOP candidates would like.
That’s why this district could be the canary in the coal mine. If Republicans lose that seat or even eke out a 1- or 2-point win, forget about the so-called Blue Wave. In that scenario, election night might turn into a blue typhoon throughout the state.
In a detailed analysis of Florida voting trends, Matthew Isbell of Sabato’s Crystal Ball called CD 15 “their most vulnerable seat” for state Republicans.
“While the district votes to the right of the state, giving Trump a 53%-43% win (in 2016), the eastern Hillsborough region is growing in population and in Democratic share,” he wrote.
“Republicans were already worried that first-term Rep. Ross Spano, dogged by campaign finance violations, would lose the seat in November. Spano would go on to lose his primary to Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin — whose dominance in his Polk base propelled him to victory. Franklin is considered a modest favorite to hold the seat.”
Democrat Alan Cohn is crushing it in fund-raising. He brought in $983,924 in the last quarter. That’s a record haul for CD 15 and nearly double what Franklin raised.
It comes with a cloud, though.
Cohn faces a complaint alleging he may have illegally accepted a campaign contribution far in excess of allowable limits.
The charge, filed by Republican and former CD 15 candidate Neil Combee, centered on a $235,000 contribution to Cohn from the House Victory Project 2020. When the transfer occurred on Sept. 30, that group was not an authorized committee for Cohn for Congress.
Cohn campaign manager Kevin Lata dismissed the charge as a “right-wing attack from a disgruntled failed congressional candidate and ultimately amounts to a minor clerical error.”
Maybe.
Anyone on the fence, though, might look at this with a deep sigh of déjà vu. A similar charge of finance irregularities helped doom Spano’s reelection try.
There are other factors, too.
Cohn floods the TV airwaves with ads stressing his experience as an investigative reporter. No disrespect intended to the profession, but that may not be the wisest strategy in this polarized environment. Media members aren’t real popular these days in many pockets of this state.
While Cohn parades his chops as a journalist, Franklin touts his extensive military and combat service.
In a race like this, point: Franklin.
Franklin also stresses his fealty to Donald Trump and accepted the endorsement of Trump Mini-Me Matt Gaetz during the primary. Those voters inclined to vote straight blue tickets, most likely centered in Hillsborough, may consider that and nothing else.
Point: Cohn.
This race seems to come down to something we don’t know enough about yet because, well, this is Florida.
If enough voters in this district decide they’re ridin’ with Joe Biden, that probably boosts Cohn’s chances. That group would include older voters who took a chance on Trump in 2016, but now regret it. If enough of them swing over to Biden, Cohn’s chances improve.
Hence, the canary in the coal mine analogy.
Franklin, the combat veteran, has the endorsement of Polk Sheriff Grady Judd, which really matters. He checks all the conservative boxes. And he’s running against a former media guy.
In a normal year, this race probably wouldn’t be competitive.
It’s 2020, though. Anything goes.
