Among Florida voters who already cast their ballots, 58% voted for Joe Biden while just 39% picked Donald Trump.
That’s according to the latest survey from St. Pete Polls, commissioned for Florida Politics.
Pollsters found the race much tighter in Florida with all likely voters in the mix, including those yet to vote. But Biden still holds onto a statewide lead of 49% to Trump’s 47%. Another 2% remain undecided.
The poll has a 2% margin of error.
But with 60% of likely voters saying they have already voted, Biden’s advantage in the Sunshine State seems further baked in each day.
“Anticipated turnout was calculated by using the demographics for the 2016 and 2018 general elections, also taking into account the voter demographic changes that have happened in the last two years,” writes pollster Matt Florell in a memo.
“This model ended up favoring Republicans by about 1% more than our statewide polls for the last several months. We also used education level quotas for the sample of respondents.”
About 48% of voters in the polling sample voted for Trump in 2016, while less than 44% supported Democrat Hillary Clinton; more than 4% of the sample declined to say who they supported four years ago.
That makes it all the more significant Biden holds a lead both among the already committed and those who still plan to vote before Nov. 3.
Most national forecasters say Trump’s path to reelection all but vanishes if he loses in Florida, his home state and the largest swing state. And polls suggest that’s what’s happening. RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Biden leading in Florida by an average of 2 points. FiveThirtyEight predicts Biden will win Florida with 51% of the vote.
The poll findings also appear consistent with early voting data in Florida, as noted in POLITICO, which noted Democrats have turned out more registered voters in several early voting states. That analysis found Democrats have also done a better job energizing newly registered and low-frequency voters.
There’s still a path for Trump, of course. Of likely voters in Florida who still plan to vote, about 60% plan to bubble beside Trump’s name, compared to 35% who will vote for Biden.
An analysis by Florida Politics shows as of Thursday night there’s almost 435,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats who voted in the last four elections but have yet to cast their ballots this year. There’s every reason to believe they will help Trump close the gap.
But a 19-percentage-point lead among those most anxious to cast their ballots makes for a solid Biden advantage. That’s in a state where the Barack Obama-Biden ticket won statewide in 2008 by 3 points and in 2012 by less than 1 point. Trump beat Clinton in Florida in 2016 by just over 1 point.