Poll: Joe Biden builds 19-point lead over Donald Trump among Florida’s early voters

biden, joe - pointing
Among all likely voters, the race looks much tighter.

Among Florida voters who already cast their ballots, 58% voted for Joe Biden while just 39% picked Donald Trump.

That’s according to the latest survey from St. Pete Polls, commissioned for Florida Politics.

Pollsters found the race much tighter in Florida with all likely voters in the mix, including those yet to vote. But Biden still holds onto a statewide lead of 49% to Trump’s 47%. Another 2% remain undecided.

The poll has a 2% margin of error.

But with 60% of likely voters saying they have already voted, Biden’s advantage in the Sunshine State seems further baked in each day.

“Anticipated turnout was calculated by using the demographics for the 2016 and 2018 general elections, also taking into account the voter demographic changes that have happened in the last two years,” writes pollster Matt Florell in a memo.

“This model ended up favoring Republicans by about 1% more than our statewide polls for the last several months. We also used education level quotas for the sample of respondents.”

About 48% of voters in the polling sample voted for Trump in 2016, while less than 44% supported Democrat Hillary Clinton; more than 4% of the sample declined to say who they supported four years ago.

That makes it all the more significant Biden holds a lead both among the already committed and those who still plan to vote before Nov. 3.

Most national forecasters say Trump’s path to reelection all but vanishes if he loses in Florida, his home state and the largest swing state. And polls suggest that’s what’s happening. RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Biden leading in Florida by an average of 2 points. FiveThirtyEight predicts Biden will win Florida with 51% of the vote.

The poll findings also appear consistent with early voting data in Florida, as noted in POLITICO, which noted Democrats have turned out more registered voters in several early voting states. That analysis found Democrats have also done a better job energizing newly registered and low-frequency voters.

There’s still a path for Trump, of course. Of likely voters in Florida who still plan to vote, about 60% plan to bubble beside Trump’s name, compared to 35% who will vote for Biden.

An analysis by Florida Politics shows as of Thursday night there’s almost 435,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats who voted in the last four elections but have yet to cast their ballots this year. There’s every reason to believe they will help Trump close the gap.

But a 19-percentage-point lead among those most anxious to cast their ballots makes for a solid Biden advantage. That’s in a state where the Barack Obama-Biden ticket won statewide in 2008 by 3 points and in 2012 by less than 1 point. Trump beat Clinton in Florida in 2016 by just over 1 point.

StPetePolls 2020 State President October21 U5GHV by Jacob Ogles on Scribd

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


  • S.B. Anthony

    October 23, 2020 at 7:42 am

    “I know more about wind than you do,” said the man who showed up to debate in red-face.

    And there you have it.

  • Sonja Fitch

    October 23, 2020 at 8:02 am

    Florida is third HIGHEST in cases and hospitalized humans! Desantis Bowing and scraping to traitor Trump has knowingly killed Floridians! The goptrump Death cult shall be voted out! Herd immunity only kills and harms more folks! The wanton killing!!!!!!! Vote Democrat up and down ballot for the common good!

  • Hunter Bidin

    October 23, 2020 at 8:53 am

    Fake polls from fake news.

  • James Robert Miles

    October 23, 2020 at 10:01 am

    It’s really amazing that it is always “fake news” when the subject matter doesn’t agree with your right-wing Nazi propaganda! Get out your crying towels, get into the fetal position cause your “dear leader” is going to lose, big time! America has had enough of Trump’s lying insanity! VOTE HIM OUT, LOCK HIM UP!! DUMP TRUMP 2020!! Save America from stupid and save your Social Security!!

  • Palmer Tom

    October 23, 2020 at 10:04 am

    We’ll verify or debunk this poll Nov. 3

  • DisplacedCTYankee

    October 23, 2020 at 10:16 am

    “2 per cent remain undecided.” This proves that at least 2 per cent of people in any poll are literally brain dead.

  • Kelly In Neptune

    October 23, 2020 at 1:05 pm

    This is an election that is literally based on common sense. Trump’s version of America is built on lies and a mirage: The lie that covid has been beaten as cases skyrocket; the lie that the virus destroyed the “best economy ever” which Trump supposedly created although he inherited a booming economy from Obama/Biden; the lie that the economy is rocketing forward although millions are unemployed and facing homelessness; the lie that America’s standing in the world has improved although our Allies are backing away, China is stronger than ever, and North Korea is still testing nukes.

    Voters are rejecting the endless lies, the obvious racism, the sexism, the incompetence, the cruelty, and the complete incompetence of the Trump era.

    Trump lies, numbers don’t. And Americans are waking up and voting against him and his Republican enablers up and down the ballot.

  • SpongeBob Bobby

    October 23, 2020 at 1:10 pm

    It is my genuine hope that Biden wins Florida, which will open the door to a Biden/Harris victory and the beginning of the end of this awful, nightmarish, present era in American history.

    Trump has an enormous ego. It must be difficult for him to see the emerging reality that he is set to lose in a landslide and then go down in history as America’s worst and most incompetent president, ever.

    Hopefully, voters will be just as enthused in 2022 and 2024, when it’ll be time to vote out that unholy leftover trinity of Trump sycophants: Desantis/Rubio/Scott.

  • Edward Lynch

    October 23, 2020 at 4:11 pm

    Look at where the people who were polled were from. LMAO. 94% of the voters polled were from very democrat areas. Such a bullshit poll. Seriously? Miami, West Palm???? Give me a break.

Comments are closed.


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