President Trump heads to Florida with statistical tie in new poll
Donald Trump. Image via AP.

Donald Trump
Is Trump's big bet on Florida paying off?

President Donald Trump is headed to Florida for two events Friday afternoon, and greeting him is a public poll showing that his Sunshine State efforts may be paying off.

A likely voter survey released Friday by Rasmussen deviates from the bulk of public polling and shows Trump in a statistical tie with Democrat Joe Biden.

Trump was the choice of 49% of the likely voters surveyed who were asked the following question: “If the 2020 Presidential Elections was held today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden?”

Biden was the choice of 46%. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

The spread improved to 50% to 46% when so-called “leaners” were factored in, the pollster asserts.

The survey shows Trump ahead, but consistent with other surveys, not with those who have already voted.

Trump is at 50% with 89% of voters in the state who have decided. But 45% of those surveyed have already voted, and the Democrat is up 56% to 39% among that group.

Rasmussen is a bit more favorable to Trump than another Florida poll released Friday, and a poll released a few days before that.

A fresh St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics shows Biden with a nearly 20-point lead among voters who have voted. Overall, Biden is up +2 in a poll predicated on a Republican +1 turnout model and targeting “shy” Trump voters.

A survey released Tuesday from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab shows the Florida race as essentially a dead heat.

Biden, who was up six points in the previous UNF PORL poll (conducted after the first presidential debate), clings to just a one-point advantage, 48% to 47%.

President Trump has two Florida stops slated.

The President will address ralliers in the Villages at 4:30. Doors open three hours prior to the event at The Villages Polo Club.

Trump moves on to Pensacola from there, with a 7 p.m. event at the ST Engineering hangar at the Pensacola International Airport.

Campaign manager Bill Stepien touted the “two stops” in a Friday call with media.

“Tomorrow he wakes up in Palm Beach,” Stepien said.

The President and First Family have flooded local markets, and are “dominating local coverage every time they are in [a] state.”

Stepien mentioned polling generally going the President’s way, with “public polls catching up with our internal numbers.”

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


7 comments

  • Frankie M.

    October 23, 2020 at 11:58 am

    Yes because we all know how accurate polls are.

  • S.B. ANTHONY

    October 23, 2020 at 12:04 pm

    Stepien, seems like you pulled your “internal numbers” out of trump’s behind.

  • Ray Blacklidge

    October 23, 2020 at 12:20 pm

    Polls are useless, just look at 2016. Go Trump!

  • DisplacedCTYankee

    October 23, 2020 at 12:33 pm

    I’m 72 and I have had one poll call, about 10 years ago, when I had a landline phone. First question was “Do you believe in God?” and I said NO. “Thank you for your time” and they hung up.

  • TED KRUZE

    October 23, 2020 at 12:35 pm

    C’mon, Gancarski! Scott Rasmussen is a Republican hack, a Republican propagandist, a Republican pollster, and, formerly, a Republican habitue of Bill O’Reilly’s former nightly cable-TV program on Fox News – plus – like his old man before him – he’s just a born self-promoter and bullshitter – always chasing a buck – just like Trump!

    At about 10:30 pm on November 3rd, the State of Florida will announce its election totals – and Donnie Dipschitz will have lost Florida and the national election in one fell swoop!

  • Sonja Fitch

    October 23, 2020 at 2:30 pm

    Blah blah blah. Vote Democrat up and down ballot !

Comments are closed.


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