A new survey from Miami-Dade mayoral candidate Daniella Levine Cava has her ahead by 15 points with just over a week until the final votes are cast in 2020.
The internal poll, conducted by SEA Research, gives Levine Cava a 45%-30% lead over her opponent, fellow Miami-Dade County Commissioner Esteban “Steve” Bovo. The remaining 25% of voters are undecided, according to the poll.
As always, internal polls should be analyzed with a dose of skepticism. While those results can be accurate, campaigns always have an incentive to withhold internal polls with poor results and publicly release those favorable to their bid.
Should Levine Cava’s camp be on the mark, however, she would be poised to become the first female Mayor ever elected to lead the county.
Her campaign’s internal polls have told a fairly consistent story since she and Bovo emerged from the Aug. 18 primary contest. A survey released the next day, on Aug. 19, had Levine Cava up by 11 points. Just over a month later, she was up by 13.
The newest version of the survey gives Levine Cava a +16 favorability rating, while Bovo has even favorable and unfavorable ratings.
Though the race is nonpartisan, Levine Cava has clearly staked out a place on the left flank in the race. Bovo has sought to appeal to conservatives.
Those trends are evident in the breakdown of Levine Cava’s internal poll. Levine Cava leads 71%-8% among Democrats, while Bovo is ahead 69%-12% with Republicans. Levine Cava leads the key demo of non-party affiliated and third-party voters by a 40%-25% margin. A large chunk of those voters — 35% — remain undecided.
The survey ran from Oct. 20-22 and sampled 402 likely Miami-Dade County voters. It has a margin of error of 5.3 percentage points.
Levine Cava’s team also took a peek at the 2020 presidential contest. The survey found Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 58%-37% inside Miami-Dade.
That’s slightly down from the margin seen in 2016, when Trump lost the county by 29 points.