Ryan Nicol
An internal survey obtained from the Daniella Levine Cava campaign has her up 13 points in the race to become the next Miami-Dade County Mayor.
Levine Cava is competing against Esteban “Steve” Bovo in the contest. The poll puts Levine Cava at 45% support. Bovo is earning 32% support.
As expected, Levine Cava is leading large among Democrats while Bovo is securing Republican support. The survey shows Levine Cava with a 77%-2% advantage among Democrats. Bovo leads with Republicans by a 73%-6% margin. The remainder of both those groups are undecided.
The race is technically nonpartisan, though both Levine Cava and Bovo have staked out clear lanes in the election.
Levine Cava does have the edge with non-party affiliated voters. She leads Bovo 40%-30%, with 30% still undecided.
Internal polls should be analyzed with a healthy dose of skepticism. While those results can be accurate, campaigns always have an incentive to withhold internal polls with poor results and publicly release those favorable to their bid.
The newest internal poll ran from Sept. 14-17. It tracks closely with a survey commissioned by Levine Cava’s team shortly after she and Bovo advanced from the Aug. 18 election. That poll put Levine Cava up by 11 percentage points.
Change Research conducted the online survey, which sampled 436 Miami-Dade County voters. It has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points. Levine Cava’s lead is outside that range.
The survey also asked voters how they felt about each candidate’s favorability. Levine Cava had 76% namer awareness and a +15 favorability rating. Bovo had 70% name awareness, but a net neutral favorability rating.
Levine Cava has launched her own ads, but has been backed by spots from the Miami-Dade Democratic Party as well.
Both Levine Cava and Bovo currently serve on the Miami-Dade County Commission. Levine Cava represents District 8, while Bovo represents District 13. The two are competing to replace current County Mayor Carlos Giménez, who is term-limited.
