Poll: Donald Trump gains in Pinellas County, but still trails Joe Biden 9 points

Joe Biden and Donald Trump's fortunes have reversed.

President Donald Trump had a late surge in Pinellas County against former Vice President Joe Biden, though he’s still significantly trailing, according to the latest countywide survey from St. Pete Polls.

The poll, taken Monday among 1,520 likely Pinellas County voters, shows Biden leading 54% to 45%, a nine-point margin well outside the poll’s 2.5% margin of error.

Still, that’s a more than a four-point drop in Biden’s lead in the pollster’s previous countywide survey taken in mid-October. Then, Biden led by 13.5 points at 55% to 41.5%. At the time, only 2% of voters indicated they were undecided. The new poll shows less than 1% of voters were still undecided heading into Election Day while 83% had already voted.

The only bright spot in the poll for Trump comes in voter turnout. Of the President’s supporters, only 40% had already voted while 59% of Biden’s voters had already cast a ballot, giving the President more votes to turn on Election Day.

Despite Trump’s improvement in the county over recent weeks, the poll still shows a damning trend for his victory chances in Florida Tuesday.

Trump carried Pinellas County four years ago by just over 1% over then-candidate Hillary Clinton. That means Trump is still underperforming in the purple county by nearly 11 points.

Crosstabs on the poll continue to show Biden collecting more crossover party votes and leading substantially among independent voters.

While 10% of Democrats polled said they intended to vote or had already voted for Trump, 16% of Republicans said they were voting for Biden. Biden also leads among independent voters 58% to 40%.

Unlike other parts of the state, Biden also narrowly leads among White voters in the county 50% to 49%. Among Black voters, Biden leads 88% to 9% and leads 60% to 38% among Hispanic voters.

Biden leads among both men and women at 54% to 44% and 53% to 45%, respectively.

He leads among every age demographic but one, senior voters over the age of 70, which favor Trump 50% to 49%. Biden performs the best among 30- to 49-year-olds at 56% to 42%.

The poll is one of many showing the former Vice President outperforming Trump in districts or counties, either winning in areas Trump won four years ago or claiming more of the vote than Clinton did four years ago.

With statewide polls continually showing Trump lagging behind Biden, Trump needs to carry counties he won in 2016 and over-perform in counties he lost four years ago.