This is Florida, assume nothing

Image via Colin Hackley

In a state where Democrats suffered a shellacking last week, it’s easy to make assumptions about the 2022 election cycle.

But this being Florida, it’s wise never to assume anything.

There was much speculation about what the results of the 2020 presidential election would mean for Gov. Ron DeSantis’ reelection prospects. As the thinking went, removing President Donald Trump from office might have been the best thing for him, even if he was one of Trump’s most ardent supporters.

After all, two years is a long time; voters could easily forget DeSantis’ allegiance to Trump’s botched COVID-19 strategies.

Then again, don’t assume his reelection will now be a breeze.

COVID-19 is still raging, with new cases increasing almost daily. A vaccine is on the way, but it’s not here yet. Once one is ready, it could take months to be readily available to all. That leaves a lot of time for voters to continue having the pandemic top of mind while they consider future political decisions.

Let’s also not assume voters will forget the DeSantis-Trump bromance. After the major networks called the election for now-President-elect Joe Biden, DeSantis was quick to hop on the Trump train yet again, sowing doubt in the nation’s most fundamental democratic process and furthering the President’s unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.

Voters may carry the memory of a Governor who willingly went along with baseless claims that certain votes should not be counted or his complacency in shattering historic norms about graciously accepting defeat and committing to a peaceful transfer of power.

And on that gubernatorial note, let’s not assume Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried will be the ordained establishment challenger to DeSantis.

Sure, Fried is flirting with a run. Yes, as Florida’s top Democrat, she’s the obvious choice. Maybe even the best one.

But as Democrats lost up and down the ballot last week, her appetite for such a race might not be so ravenous. Democrats not only didn’t ride the anticipated 2020 “blue wave,” they all but drowned under the crush of what instead was a red wave, with Republicans securing five additional seats in the House and two (!!) incumbent Democrats losing congressional seats.

Fried might very well sit it out in favor of keeping her Cabinet position.

Florida Politics has also learned she’s under consideration for a position in the Biden administration, a possibility that would surely be enticing against the prospect of a difficult gubernatorial bid.

Then there’s U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio.

Don’t assume he runs for reelection (I know, I know). He’s all but declared he’ll run for re-election. But if Rubio changed his mind, would it really be a surprise?

Agree with his politics or not, there is little doubt Rubio has been a committed Senator. If he holds any hope for a 2024 presidential bid, Rubio may not want to tackle it while shouldering the burden of being Senator at the same time. No doubt the scars of 2016 are still there; a fresh, focused and dedicated second attempt might seem a better prospect than one complicated by the burdens of being in D.C. .

Voters should also not assume U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist is done with his statewide ambitions. After losing to then-Gov. Rick Scott in 2014, Crist emerged as a new Democrat facing an onslaught of criticism as an opportunist jumping from Republican to independent and then to Democrat.

By 2022, he’ll have eight years under his belt, six of them with a legislative record. He may very well see a path to redemption after failing to deliver victory to a party anxious to rid themselves of a Scott administration. This time, he could relieve Rubio of his duties as a U.S. Senator.

Look at the redistricting process, too; make no assumptions here.

At first glance, redistricting looks appealing to the GOP. With successes on the ballot this year, they will control the process. But with so many red districts, they’re also forced to draw maps that could pit conservative versus conservative.

And who’s to say it even happens by 2022?

The U.S. Census, thanks to COVID-19, is a hot mess. A President Biden could order a Census restart, which would further delay the redistricting process that is based on the decennial count.

The point is (and we have one) — this is Florida. Nothing is ever certain, as voters saw yet again this year when actual race outcomes defied polling and expectations.