Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
President Donald Trump recently claimed that he had a 97% chance to win another term on election night, but one of the top oddsmakers in the business says that’s not the case.
According to US-Bookies, Trump’s chances crested at 2/5 at 10 p.m. on Nov. 3, largely due to his strong performance among voters who waited until Election Day to cast their ballots. That equates to a 71% chance.
While still solid, and a marked swing from his 15/8 odds from earlier in the day, bettors didn’t view him as the sure-fire winner by any stretch. And his lead among speculators was short-lived — by the next morning, when more mail ballots had been tallied, Biden retook his position as the favorite with 80% odds to win.
And US-Bookies stressed the claim was a moot point. After all, bets aren’t ballots.
“The multi-billion-dollar global betting market fluctuated over the course of the day in response to the many participants’ betting action, which was a result of bettors constantly receiving new information that would affect their predictions of the final outcome,” a US-Bookies spokesperson said.
“If the odds moved in favor of one candidate, this meant that more money was being placed on said candidate, because more people believed he had a better chance of winning. Betting markets are based on supply and demand, like any other traded futures market or stock exchange.”
To the oddsmaker, the swings can be explained away by 2016-induced FOMO from a combination of the so-called “red mirage” and memories of Trump’s first win.
“The surprise in 2016 led to another factor at play this year, as many bettors did not want to miss the boat the second time around when early signals came out favoring Trump,” the spokesperson continued.
“With early numbers showing a Trump lead, Biden remained in play in the betting markets because bettors were processing the fact that the nature of this year’s election was likely to show Trump favored early before all votes were able to be counted. This is why Trump’s chances never came close to 97%.”
The oddsmaker also claimed that the betting market, swings and all, still proved a more reliable predictor of the final result than the polls, which forecast a Democratic landslide.
Coronavirus Numbers
Positive cases
— 1,076,547 FL residents (+11,071 since Wednesday)
— 18,150 Non-FL residents (+264 since Wednesday)
Origin:
— 9,848 Travel related
— 413,223 Contact with a confirmed case
— 12,147 Both
— 641,329 Under investigation
Hospitalizations
— 57,468 in FL
Deaths
— 19,851 in FL
Evening Reads
“Despite Donald Trump’s venting and threats, Joe Biden’s win is sealed” via Calvin Woodward of The Associated Press
“The Trump team throws in the towel on proving voter fraud” via Aaron Blake of The Washington Post
“Team of rivals? Joe Biden’s Cabinet looks more like a team of buddies” via Michael D. Shear and Shane Goldmacher of The New York Times
“What language game are the ‘Defunders’ playing?” via Caitlin Flanagan of The Atlantic
“The next stage of the ideological struggle between the U.S. and China” via Isaac Chotiner of The New Yorker
“COVID-19 vaccines face last-mile challenge to reach most vulnerable” via Joanna Sugden, Will Horner and Paul Vieira of The Wall Street Journal
“Economic relief talks descend into disarray as congressional bickering intensifies” via Mike DeBonis and Jeff Stein of The Washington Post
“Will a former national teacher union president be the next U.S. Education Secretary?” via Danielle J. Brown of the Florida Phoenix
“From Florida science teacher to the moon: Joe Acaba chosen as Artemis astronaut” via Richard Tribou of the Orlando Sentinel
“135 additional deaths, 11K test positive in Florida’s Thursday pandemic update” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics
“Was raid on COVID data analyst intended to send a message to Florida whistle-blowers?” via Mary Ellen Klas of the Times/Herald Tallahassee Bureau
“Senate Democrats call on Governor to bring transparency, trust, action to pandemic” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics
“Central Florida COVID-19 case count climbs by 1,500 … again” via Scott Powers of Florida Politics
“With everyone masked up, bandits are hitting South Florida banks by blending in” via Austen Erblat of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
“Paul Renner announces staff picks for House GOP campaign arm” via Drew Wilson of Florida Politics
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