Prediction markets favor Ron DeSantis for reelection, Democrats far behind
Ron DeSantis is the 2022 favorite, according to a prediction market.

Ron DeSantis
Prediction markets aren't infallible. But the data tells a story.

Prediction markets aren’t infallible. But while there’s still a lot of time between now and the 2022 General Election, they aren’t showing expectations of change in the Florida Governor’s Mansion.

The PredictIt market weighing the proposition of who wins in 2022 shows Gov. Ron DeSantis as the runaway favorite in the early going.

A Yes-buy for the Republican incumbent comes in at $0.78, and a No at $0.23.

Three Democrats are currently live propositions, but the numbers seem to be daunting.

Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried stands at $0.15 for a Yes-buy and $0.85 for a No.

Fried, who was elected to her position in 2018 just as DeSantis was, has hinted at a 2022 challenge to the sitting Governor for some time.

In a recent appearance on MSNBC, the Commissioner told host Joy Reid that she was “very close” to formally launching a 2022 bid against the “egotistical” DeSantis.

Two members of the United States House of Representatives are farther back than Fried, despite state and national profiles.

U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist, a former Florida Governor, stands at just $0.06 for a Yes-buy and $0.95 for a No.

As is the case with Fried, Crist’s interest in exploring another bid for the top job is an open secret.

“But if you ask me, have some people suggested that I should contemplate potentially running for Governor next year? Yes, they have. While it doesn’t get much of my attention in my brain right now, it is something that I would be open to,” Crist told Miami reporter Jim DeFede in February.

U.S. Rep. Val Demings, who was considered as a vice presidential candidate by then-candidate Joe Biden, is incrementally farther back. A Yes is going for $0.05 and a No for $0.96.

DeSantis, meanwhile, continues to perform strongly in 2024 markets also. In the theoretical 2024 field for the Republican presidential nomination, DeSantis’ $0.22 Yes share is the second-most expensive affirmative proposition. Former President Donald Trump is just ahead of DeSantis, at $0.23.

For his part, the Governor is preparing a fearsome reelection machine, with fundraising kicking into high gear. March saw his Friends of Ron DeSantis political committee raise more than $5 million, bringing it to $17 million cash on hand.

Could that translate to 2024? It would be news if it couldn’t.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been a correspondent for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. In 2018, he was a finalist for an Association of Alternative Newsweeklies "best political column." He can be reached at [email protected]


2 comments

  • James Robert Miles

    April 7, 2021 at 8:25 am

    Don’t believe this nonsense! Unless of course you want to believe that Floriduh has the dumbest voters in the world which unfortunately might just be possible!!

    Reply

  • tom palmer

    April 8, 2021 at 1:03 am

    Incumbents have a built-in advantage unless they screw up big time, which DeSantis has avoided. Crist no longer has statewide star power. Fried has some issues and has not been impressive in office so far.

    Reply

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