A.G. Gancarski
Memorial Day Weekend was a return to normalcy for many in Northeast Florida, with cookouts taking precedence over COVID-19.
In the political sphere, a return to normalcy is upon us also, with filings anticipated for primaries in the 2022 cycle. In gerrymandered Northeast Florida, primaries are where the action happens.
Here are a few legislative battles we are watching as the Summer gets underway.
The most interesting contest could be the battle to replace term-limited Sen. Audrey Gibson in Senate District 6, where we are awaiting two high-profile filings.
Rep. Tracie Davis, in her third term representing House District 13, would seem to be the establishment Democratic choice. But she will face a real challenge, with Jacksonville City Councilman Reggie Gaffney expected to be on the ballot.
At this writing, he is “leaning that way,” he tells Florida Politics. But a decision has not been raised.
Do these two like each other? Not particularly.
Some Davis partisans characterize Team Gaffney as opportunistic, Democratic in name only, and so on. Gaffney, meanwhile, is an inveterate dealmaker who has been a Democrat and a Republican, can work with both sides of the aisle, and is very comfortable working the halls in the Florida Capitol.
Gaffney will have help too, should he run. The Jacksonville business community and Republican power brokers will find a way to get him money one way or another. Florida Times-Union columnist Nate Monroe was the first to report on the supportive “Committee to Revive Florida,” which is expected to be a Gaffney-supportive account.
A third candidate, Brooklyn Owen, has filed, but she is a political newcomer.
We are watching whether this primary gets closed or not, with a No Party Affiliation or Republican candidate filing. That would restrict the voters to registered Democrats, and that could present a Davis advantage. In a 2018 House primary, Kim Daniels was defeated by Rep. Angie Nixon and part of what facilitated that was the closing of the primary. An NPA candidate who had filed withdrew.
There is a down-ballot effect too. HD 13 currently has no filed candidates. Expect that to change. Multiple candidates, including Davis and former Rep. Reggie Fullwood, ran when this was open last in 2016.
The race to succeed termed-out Aaron Bean in Senate District 4 is back on, with Summer events poised to ramp up.
Two are off to fast starts: HD 16 incumbent Rep. Jason Fischer entered Session and the compulsory fundraising pause with $900,000 banked. HD 12 incumbent Rep. Clay Yarborough had raised $400,000.
Rep. Cord Byrd of House District 11, with roughly $80,000 raised, has ground to make up.
Unlike House District 13, which has no one filed yet, action has begun in the House races affected by the candidates looking to move up. But there is every expectation that more action is to come.
In HD 11, the leading fundraiser, Jacksonville Beach trial lawyer Heath Brockwell, has yet to find anything that one could spin as front-runner traction. April was his weakest of three months collecting checks, with just $3,800 raised and just over $16,000 on hand.
His opponents haven’t done anything yet, meanwhile. Hilliard’s Bo Hodges and Jacksonville Beach podcaster Matthew Collins have raised $105 between them. This field likely hasn’t reached its final composition yet, and June could offer at least some hints. Some have suggested Byrd backs down and runs for House after all, but Byrd has been underestimated before, including in 2016 when he defeated two establishment Republicans in that primary.
In HD 12, former Rep. Lake Ray has the field all to himself, with Rogers Towers attorney Adam Brandon having shifted to HD 16. Odds are good they still will face primaries though.
Yarborough faced a nominal primary challenge in 2020, and the race for that seat in 2016 was a crowded, competitive primary. Expect the political talent to pile up again, though people are still quiet about specifics.
In HD 16, where Southsiders and Mandarin residents have long memories, there are some grumbles that Brandon’s shift is seen as less than organic. It wouldn’t surprise us if a politician from the recent past, or even a current incumbent on the City Council or School Board, opens up a campaign account sooner than later. Expect that person, should they manifest, to have deep roots in the area.
