Weekly COVID-19 report shows more signs South Florida case counts are peaking

While South Florida hospitals continue to struggle with an overload of COVID-19 patients, the state’s weekly COVID-19 report appears to show case counts may be at or near their peak across the tri-county area.

Raw case totals this week were again higher than last week’s in all three major South Florida counties. But Miami-Dade saw its smallest week-to-week increase in eight weeks. For Broward, it was the smallest leap in seven weeks. For Palm Beach, the smallest in six weeks. That’s an indicator case counts may be flattening before an eventual dip.

Miami-Dade’s case positivity rate — which measures the share of tests coming back positive — went down this week. That’s also the first time that’s happened in eight weeks, or since mid-June.

The case positivity rates in Broward and Palm Beach both increased week-to-week, but by less than one percentage point. That’s the lowest rate of increase in seven weeks in either county.

Last week’s report showed signs case totals could be starting to peak. Friday’s report, covering data from Aug. 6-12, reinforced that trend, with the rate of increase slowing further and even reversing in some metrics.

Unfortunately, that’s not likely to immediately lessen the ongoing stress on hospitals in the region. Deaths and hospitalizations are lagging indicators. Individuals who tested positive in the days and weeks prior may just be entering hospitals. And as case counts have fallen in the past, the trend in hospitalizations has typically lagged.

That means even if the trajectory remains reassuring and cases are consistently declining by early September, hospitals and health care workers may continue being strained into the fall.

Broward County led the nation in COVID-19 hospitalizations from Aug. 3-9. Miami-Dade County was third among all U.S. counties. That’s a stark reality mostly brought on by large chunks of the population that remain unvaccinated.

Friday’s report showed 83% of Miami-Dade’s 12-and-up population has received at least one shot of the COVID-19 vaccine. That number is 74% in Broward County and 68% in Palm Beach County.

Miami-Dade, which has the highest share of its population vaccinated in the tri-county area, has consistently seen the lowest case positivity rate in the region during this year’s summer spike. Palm Beach, the least vaccinated of South Florida’s three major counties, has seen its cases spike the highest.

Fewer people were vaccinated this week than last week in all three major counties. That’s after vaccination rates had appeared to be rising in previous weeks. Approximately 99% of COVID-19 deaths are among the unvaccinated.

Nearly all hospitalized patients are also unvaccinated. That includes a rising proportion of children, as kids 12 and under remain ineligible to receive the vaccine.

Students began returning to class in Palm Beach County this week. Two days in, hundreds had already been quarantined due to COVID-19 concerns. Around three dozen tested positive for the virus. School resumes next week in Broward County and the following week in Miami-Dade.

Here are some of the weekly numbers for the previous three weeks throughout the South Florida tri-county area:

Miami-Dade

— July 23-29: 15,541 newly-confirmed cases, 12.1% positivity rate, 44,925 vaccine doses administered, 78% of 12-and-up population now vaccinated

— July 30-Aug. 5: 19,639 newly-confirmed cases, 12.7% positivity rate, 48,700 vaccine doses administered, 81% of 12-and-up population now vaccinated

— Aug. 6-12: 21,561 newly-confirmed cases, 12.4% positivity rate, 44,622 vaccine doses administered, 83% of 12-and-up population now vaccinated

Broward

— July 23-29: 9,094 newly-confirmed cases, 14% positivity rate, 26,434 vaccine doses administered, 70% of 12-and-up population now vaccinated

— July 30-Aug. 5: 12,590 newly-confirmed cases, 15.9% positivity rate, 28,245 vaccine doses administered, 72% of 12-and-up population now vaccinated

— Aug. 6-12: 14,675 newly-confirmed cases, 16.5% positivity rate, 27,724 vaccine doses administered, 74% of 12-and-up population now vaccinated

Palm Beach

— July 23-29: 5,948 newly-confirmed cases, 15.5% positivity rate, 14,750 vaccine doses administered, 65% of 12-and-up population now vaccinated

— July 30-Aug. 5: 7,787 newly-confirmed cases, 17.1% positivity rate, 18,094 vaccine doses administered, 67% of 12-and-up population now vaccinated

— Aug. 6-12: 9,159 newly-confirmed cases, 17.8% positivity rate, 16,335 vaccine doses administered, 68% of 12-and-up population now vaccinated