‘Downward trend’ ends for Ron DeSantis reelection odds

Desantis, Ron - 4
Bookie predicts a bounce in polls for the Governor.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has bounced back with bettors, one bookie notes, with a recent slide in his reelection odds pausing.

“DeSantis’ reelection chances were on a downward trend through the summer, with his odds shifting from 1/5 in June to 1/3 in August,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “During that time, Rep. Charlie Crist and (Agriculture Commissioner) Nikki Fried were improving in the odds markets, indicating that it was becoming a closer race.”

DeSantis’ downturn is over, however, at least for the moment.

Meanwhile, Crist has seen a downturn with gamblers of late. The former Governor’s previous 4/1 odds in August are now 9/2.

Fried’s odds are somewhat worse, at 8/1. They have been stable since August.

The bookie goes on to predict that DeSantis’ polls will see a boost, using the example of Gov. Gavin Newsom during the recall to illustrate odds as a leading indicator.

“In the recent California recall of Gov. Newsom, polls predicted a tighter margin of victory while betting data suggested Newsom was more heavily favored,” says a US-Bookies spokesperson. “Similarly, betting odds forecast a negative outlook for DeSantis ahead of most polls, again suggesting wagering data is ahead of the curve.”

Some will wonder if a similar rebound or stabilization awaits the Governor in presidential betting markets for the 2024 cycle. Gamblers seem to be counting on a reelection bid for President Donald Trump.

But questions remain about how DeSantis would do even in a field without the former President.

Polling for most of the year has established DeSantis as the choice of a plurality of primary voters if Trump doesn’t run, but one new poll shows former Vice President Mike Pence up 12 points over DeSantis in a national primary poll of a non-Trump field.

Even as gamblers weigh the proposition of President DeSantis, the Governor says it’s “nonsense.”

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” DeSantis told reporters earlier this month when asked about the seeming pre-campaign that sees the Governor traveling out of state every few days, a schedule that includes a fundraising trip to New York state next Tuesday.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been a correspondent for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. In 2018, he was a finalist for an Association of Alternative Newsweeklies "best political column." He can be reached at [email protected]


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