In determining Senate tenures, choosing a district can be a numbers game

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While a random draw from a Senate jar purportedly revealed the “winners” of decade-long Senate tenures, it may be more complicated.

That’s because the redistricting process — the reason districts are renumbered at all — is still causing ripple effects. Some incumbents had the ground, and the number beneath them, shift in the process. Others will move to run in new jurisdictions, and that will impact how long they ultimately may spend in the Senate.

Sen. Tina Polsky, for example, filed Monday to run in the new Senate District 30. Based on a card drawing earlier this month, the Boca Raton Democrat’s Senate District 29 was scheduled to remain an odd-numbered district. That would mean this year, the winner of the race would only secure a two-year term. Even if Polsky won re-election there, she would have to run again in 2024 for a four-year term. Then come 2028, term limits would forbid the then eight-year Senator from seeking another term.

But Polsky has now landed in an even-numbered district. Her SD 30 candidacy means she can conceivably serve 10 years in the Senate if she wins her race this year. A win in 2022 would give her a full four-year term. Then in 2026, with six years of Senate service behind her, she could still run for another four-year term.

Florida State University professor Michael Morley explains it’s a work-around that has helped a number of senators say eight is not enough even in the term limits era.

“The Florida Constitution specifies, ‘No person may appear on the ballot for re-election . . . [as] Florida Senator . . . if, by the end of the current term of office, the person will have served . . . in that office for eight consecutive years,’” he wrote in an email to Florida Politics.

“The Florida Supreme Court, construing this provision, has recognized that it ‘does not limit senators to a maximum of eight consecutive years,’ but rather ‘prohibits anyone who has served for eight years from standing for re-election.’ On the other hand, ‘any Senator who has served for less than eight years is not prohibited from seeking re-election.’”

For several incumbents who have already been in the Senate a half dozen years, the benefit of the right card being drawn will be felt immediately.

The reapportionment of the state means every Senate district must go up for re-election in 2022. The same happened in 2016, after Circuit Court Judge George Reynolds redrew the state’s Senate map following a legal challenge.

For Republican Sens. Kathleen Passidomo and George Gainer and Democratic Sens. Darryl Rouson and Bobby Powell — who were all first elected to the Senate in 2016 — that means they could win one more term in November and get to serve until 2026, going two years past the eight-year limit.

But not everyone was so lucky. Sens. Ray Rodrigues and Danny Burgess — who chaired the Senate Reapportionment Committee and Senate Legislative Reapportionment Subcommittee, respectively — both land in odd-numbered districts. Elected in 2020, that means they must run three times in three election cycles but will only ever have the chance to serve eight years.

Still, theoretically, any Senator could get to 10 years just by changing the districts in which they run. Whether that makes sense politically may be a different story.

That’s part of why all eyes now fall on Sen. Gary Farmer, a Lighthouse Point Democrat. Senate District 34, which Farmer has represented since winning in 2016, remained even following the card draw, thus awarding the winner another four years.

But Farmer can’t be considered a lottery winner because he was drawn out of that district. His home is now located in an odd district, Senate District 37.

Worse, he’s there with Sen. Jason Pizzo, a Miami-Dade Democrat. Pizzo notably could serve out 10 years in the odd-numbered district. First elected in 2018, Pizzo is running for a two-year term this November and could secure another four-year term in 2024.

Meanwhile, Farmer could extend his time in the Senate by running in an even-numbered district. There are rumors he could run in SD 30 against Polsky.

Farmer has demurred on questions about his future, noting Senate maps must still go to the House and clear the Legislature to become law.

“I can’t comment on that before the maps are final, as my incumbency or how many years I get playing a role in how I vote would be improper,” he said.

He notably voted against both the Senate map and a U.S. House map when both initially cleared the Senate.

For a minute, a few senators hoped their unusual arrivals in the Senate would secure them lengthy terms, maybe as long as 12 years. Why? Sens. Burgess, Joe Gruters and Gayle Harrell were all elected to fill out the terms of predecessors who resigned their seats.

But the initial rush of that prospect seemed to fade upon scrutiny. Harrell ended up with a card draw that gives her 10 years if she keeps winning in the new Senate District 29. But it looks like Gruters and Burgess will be limited to eight.

Burgess said he’s just focused on making sure the Senate maps pass legal muster.

“The focus now is just making sure we have constitutional maps that we get through this that work and that can stand,” he said. “I think we’ve done that.”

Gruters concurred. “I will have four years left after this cycle. (I’m) happy with that. I would have been happy under either,” he said. “Other opportunities are going to be available that cycle.”