Latino officials’ group predicts 1.4 million Florida Latino voters this fall

Florida’s Latino voters could turn out in record numbers for this autumn’s election, a national group of Hispanic elected leaders is projecting.

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) Educational Fund’s 2022 voter projection analysis found Florida can expect 1.43 million Latino voters to go to the polls for the November General Election.

That compares with 1.39 million Latino voters who turned out in 2018, which was a record in Florida, according to the NALEO Educational Fund.

The increase is within the association’s research margin of error. So the group is saying Florida Latinos likely will “mirror” their turnout from 2018. That year, Florida Latino voters smashed 2014 turnout levels, which NALEO Educational Fund said was about 890,000 voters statewide.

Florida’s Latino electorate should represent about 18.1% of the total turnout in Florida this year, which also mirrors what was seen in 2018, NALEO Education Fund reported in the study.

Nationally, the nonpartisan organization is projecting a slight dip in Latino voter turnout, though still within the study’s margin of error. In 2018, the nation saw a Latino voter turnout of about 11.7 million. For this year, NALEO Educational Fund is projecting 11.6 million nationwide.

Among the 11 states with the largest Latino populations, Arizona (10%), Colorado (9%) and Nevada (6%) are expected to see the largest increases in Latino voter turnout this year as compared with 2018, the group projected. New Mexico could see its Latino voter turnout fall by 10%, while Texas could see its fall by 6%, NALEO Education Fund predicted.

Latino voter turnout in 2022 was projected to mirror 2018 levels in California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York and North Carolina, as well as in Florida.

The group said in a news release that it derived its projections using statistical modeling that takes into account trends in Latino voter turnout in the past five midterm election cycles. The projections do not take into account any dynamics that may arise from the COVID-19 pandemic, voter engagement efforts, changes in voter registration or voting laws, or other factors.