Jacob Ogles
One of the nation’s top election prognosticators shifted three Florida races to safe Republican seats this election cycle. Two of those represent gains for the GOP in the U.S. House if the prediction holds true.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved Florida’s 4th, 7th and 28th Congressional Districts into its “Safe Republican” column. The model previously listed the seats as “Likely Republican,” thanks to an absence of any incumbent and changes brought about with a new congressional map.
That’s good news for U.S. Rep. Carlos Giménez, a Miami Republican first elected in 2020 when he defeated Democratic incumbent Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. While the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spotlighted the seat as a front-line race, the political environment right now doesn’t offer reason for Giménez to worry, according to the Crystal Ball team.
Like all the Florida races shifted in this week’s forecast update, Giménez represents a seat where Donald Trump won the 2020 Presidential Election.
“We’re moving several Trump-won seats that Democrats do not appear to have the bandwidth to compete for this cycle from Likely Republican to Safe Republican: the open seats FL-4 and FL-7, as well as the seats held by Reps. Carlos Giménez (R, FL-28) and Bryan Steil (R, WI-1),” wrote editor Kyle Kondik.
For the other Florida races, a shift from Florida’s new congressional map already placed the seats in jeopardy.
CD 7, represented now by Democrat Stephanie Murphy, was altered from a seat where Democrat Joe Biden won the Presidential Election by 10 percentage points to one Trump would have taken by more than 4.
Before the redistricting process even wrapped, Murphy announced she would not seek re-election this year. Eight Republicans qualified to run in the newly reconfigured district. So did four Democrats, but as of the second quarter, every Republican candidate raised more than the top Democrat in the race.
As for CD 4, the new map at Gov. Ron DeSantis’ demand eliminated a north Florida Black access seat represented now by Democrat Al Lawson and left CD 4 covering west Jacksonville but also including conservative Nassau County.
Lawson, based in Tallahassee, elected to run against Republican incumbent Neal Dunn in Florida’s 2nd Congressional District. About 52.6% of voters in the new CD 4 voted for Trump and 45.92% went for Biden, so the seat leans red even in neutral conditions.
But the overall environment simply looks terrible for Democrats.
“In a midterm environment such as this one, the opposition party has the clear advantage in terms of ‘nationalizing’ races, running on national themes like dissatisfaction with President (Joe) Biden (whose approval rating is languishing in the 30s) and issues such as inflation and gas prices,” Kondik wrote.
Managed by the University of Virginia and produced by Editor-in-Chief Larry Sabato, the election forecasts remain among the most closely watched in politics and could influence the decisions of national donors.
11 comments
Tom
July 28, 2022 at 10:59 am
With Biden’s recession, the Florida GOP will pick 3 to 6 net, new House seats. Super majorities legislature. Gov and Marco!
With Biden’s recession, nationally we are now looking at 50 house seats net GOP. New house majority. 6 senate seats or more.
You can run as a Dummycrat but you can’t hide from Biden’s recession.
Biden is at 30% approval in Florida.
He’s below 50%, in over 44% states. Some blue!
As the parthetic schumer screamed, Biden you have released the whirl wind upon the Democrat party,
50 new house seats and at least 6 senate seats.
As I have been projecting for the last months.
Enjoy you soros manchurian boot lickers!
America’s Gov wins, Marco assured too,
Elliott Offen
July 28, 2022 at 11:11 am
^ Schizophrenic neo nazi babbling about “Soros Manchurians”… this nut would be Baker Acted or beaten up for spewing such nonsense in public. God and baby Jesus save us from these deranged sub-apes.
Tom
July 28, 2022 at 12:29 pm
Biden’s recession:
Anytime PUD licker. Idiot, I mean Elliot. Just let me know where you’d like yo try. You don’t have Kahones like Gov Ron and I.
Yes, you are a Manchurian soros boot licker. Plus you are a threat to our Democratic Republic.
Why don’t you deal with the substance issue ever, like corsin Alex?
I predicted several times, upon multiple models, a landslide. See your Corp media cannot cover up people’s pain. I study left and right, unlike you ignoramuses, just repeating talking points.
Biden’s recession is destabilizing to the U S and the Davos, Soros crowd!
As a political scientist, congressional and WH scholar, The avalanche coming upon you Manchurians is monumental. In words of your emperor Obummer, “shellacking” coming. Cause it’s the economy stupid!
No worries, the incompetents Biden, Harris, and Dr Jill offer tacos!
Getting your ass kicked pal! Enjoy it.
Joe Corsin
July 28, 2022 at 12:55 pm
^ Gibberish…needs medication.
Tom
July 28, 2022 at 9:39 pm
Tacos for u. From Joe and Dr Jill.
Getting your ass kicked corsin!
Bad say! Call your alias, Elliot
Bumstead!
Tom
July 28, 2022 at 12:40 pm
See, the further below the 50% potus approval, the more House Seats the Dums lose! It historic predictor mode, u morons. Biden at best is 39% to 41% nationally. Grafted the gerrymander helps, any Dem member of Congress in a plus 10 or less allows for defeat! Repub. have 75 Dem seats or open seats targeted, likely now to be 90 or more. LMAO. Enjoy it!
In Florida it’s 30%, so it will be worse! Just like other states! Wah, Wah and Wah.
I am the FP legend!
Manchurian school is a real failure!
Dumb as a Box of rocks!
Joe Corsin
July 28, 2022 at 12:56 pm
^ Not old enough to be on the internet… complete nonsense.
Tom
July 28, 2022 at 10:26 pm
LMAO, old enough to wipe the floor with you, All day! You are an idiot? Logic ain’t your forte.
I know big words confuse you.
Phil Morton
July 29, 2022 at 2:16 am
The latest Congressional generic ballot surveys have Democrats up 6 points. It’s looking more and more like another Blue Wave election every day.
Tom
July 29, 2022 at 6:27 am
Morton, old time Manchurian, as usual no clue or knowledge. Outlier polls, GOP leads generic House vote by 1.5% or greater, which is likely greater percentage with Dem partisan, dishonest polling. Per RCP polls averaged.
You can not disassociate Biden’s putrid approval for voting. The further below the 50% margin, the worse the House vote will be for Dems. Biden’s 30% in Florida is political nightmare.
Dumings, chameleon or fraud have no chance due to Biden, please come campaign with them. Nationally, on specific issues like economy as he’s in low 30’s.
Dem, Dum Manchurian delusion, denial is overwhelming. Blue wave is your blanket flipping. Morton you prove your ignorance.
LMAO.
Tom
July 29, 2022 at 6:42 am
Tacos will be provided for you Morton and the other Manchurians, compliments from Biden, Harris and Dr Jill. What a joke.
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