Last Call for 7.28.22 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Democrats’ chances in three Florida congressional districts have gone from slim to virtually nonexistent.

Florida’s 4th, 7th and 28th Congressional Districts are now considered “safe Republican” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a leading election prognosticator run by the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato.

The rating shift came because “Democrats do not appear to have the bandwidth to compete for this cycle,” wrote Kyle Kendrick of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

He added that CD 4 and CD 7 “are reconfigured districts that were targeted by Florida Republicans in their gerrymander of Florida; we’re counting them as flips because Democrats currently hold versions of each seat.”

CD 4, held by Democratic U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, is currently a majority-minority district but it was dismantled under the new map put forward by Gov. Ron DeSantis. CD 7 is currently held by U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy, who is not running for re-election.

NRCC representative Camille Gallo insinuated that ineptitude, not the redraw, put those seats in the safe GOP column.

“Florida Democrats’ complete incompetence and Biden’s failed agenda has destroyed Democrats’ chances in the Sunshine State,” she said.

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Nikki Fried’s gubernatorial campaign claims it has the momentum to come out on top in next month’s Democratic Primary.

Fried, the current Agriculture Commissioner, has been trailing U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist in fundraising and in most Primary polls, but her campaign pointed to voter outreach stats as proof it can pull off a win.

The campaign said that, as of Thursday, it had contacted, communicated with, and ID’ed 500,000 likely Democratic Primary Voters, which equates to about half of the expected turnout for the Aug. 23 election.

“The energy we’re feeling on the ground is fueling this campaign,” said Deputy Campaign Manager Adrienne Bogen. “This is a big number. 500,000 voters — and it’s only possible thanks to the power of our volunteers. It’s this sort of momentum that is going to give Florida Something New this August and November.”

The campaign said its volunteers have been collecting survey data, fielding voter concerns, chasing vote-by-mail ballots, recruiting additional volunteers, and answering questions about Fried’s plan to lower costs and raise the standard of living for Floridians.

Evening Reads

—“Is Florida still a political battleground? Senate candidate Val Demings thinks so.” via Amanda Becker of 19th News

—“U.S. Senate candidate with Florida ties accused of impersonating federal agent” via Fresh Take Florida

—“Ron DeSantis’s political committee makes $50K contribution to HD 16 candidate Kiyan Michael” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics

—“Daniel Uhlfelder lands support for Attorney General bid from Senate heavyweight” via Anne Geggis of Florida Politics

—“Senate Democrats increasingly worried about Lauren Book’s contentious Primary” via Matt Dixon of POLITICO Florida

—“‘Painful’ division of $1 billion Surfside settlement starts: Some to get more than others” via Jay Weaver and Linda Robertson of the Miami Herald

—“What’s in the ‘game changer’ climate bill nobody saw coming” via Rebecca Leber of Vox

—“Florida debuts new database on cops with bad records. It has holes, reform advocates say” via Charles Rabin of the Miami Herald

—“Demings’ open seat in U.S. House draws an army of candidates” via Steven Lemongello of the Orlando Sentinel

—“Universal theme parks remain moneymakers despite recession fears” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—“Why Netflix’s most expensive movies keep getting worse.” via Sam Adams of Slate

—“Florida-Georgia tradition should take priority over Kirby Smart’s recruiting obsession” via Gene Frenette of The Florida Times-Union

Quote of the Day

“What’s happened is what we knew would happen. We are now in a Biden recession.” 

— U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, after U.S. GDP fell for the second-straight quarter.

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