New poll shows Val Demings, Marco Rubio tied in Florida’s U.S. Senate race
Val Demings and Marco Rubio get into a Mexican fruit fight.

demings rubio
Could the incumbent face trouble even in a Republican-friendly midterm?

A progressive group has released polling suggesting Florida’s U.S. Senate race will be a nailbiter.

Numbers from Progress Florida and Florida Watch show Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic challenger Val Demings tied, each with 45% support from those polled.

Demings is even with Rubio in the polling despite remaining an unknown quantity to more than a third of Florida voters. Gauging the favorability of both candidates, pollsters from The Hub found 36% of voters have a favorable view of the Orlando Congresswoman, 30% hold an unfavorable view and 34% said they could not rate her.

Meanwhile, voters know Rubio — but more dislike him than like him. Pollsters found 52% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the two-term Senator, while just 43% hold a favorable view. That leaves only 5% neutral on the Senator as he sits nine percentage points underwater.

Demings’ campaign cheered the poll results.

“Floridians want strong leaders who will keep their costs down and communities safe, not career politicians who refuse to show up for work,” said Campaign Manager Zack Carroll. “Our momentum continues to grow as Chief Demings travels from the Panhandle to the Keys highlighting her American Dream story and holding Rubio accountable for failing to deliver for Florida. This November, Floridians will send 27-year career law enforcement officer Val Demings to the United States Senate and end Marco Rubio’s nearly three-decade political career.”

Pollsters say they weighted results predicting a Republican electorate coming out to vote.

“Importantly, this data comes from a poll weighted to reflect what would be the most pro-Republican electorate in recent history: with registered Republicans making up 41% of the electorate and registered Democrats 37%,” reads a polling memo from pollsters Geoff Puryear and Annika Ramnath.

“For the last decade the Republican advantage has never been bigger than 2 points. By party identification, the sample is 47% Republican and 44% Democrat.”

Pollsters also say the sample wasn’t soft on President Joe Biden. About 57% of those polled hold a negative view, with 44% viewing the Democratic president “very unfavorably” and just 40% having a positive one.

“Still, as we are seeing across the country, Democratic candidates are overperforming the president’s ratings and that is very much the case in Florida, still the nation’s largest swing state,” pollsters wrote.

The poll similarly found in a generic ballot test, voters statewide are divided equally on whether they are inclined to vote Democrat or Republican this year. About 46% said given generic choices, they would choose a Democratic candidate and 46% said they’d go with a Republican. That could be a significant finding considering there are open races in some of Florida’s most closely divided political districts.

Here is the polling memo:

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


38 comments

  • Tom

    August 8, 2022 at 6:36 am

    Crock of manure poll. That’s the literally best case scenario, and that’s a tie at best.

    Most recent Susquehanna poll has Sen Rubio up by 10 pts. I repeat 10. That’s a less partisan Dem poll, compared to Dem pollster polls released.

    Furthermore, Rubio artfully yesterday forced a vote and all 50 stupid Dem Senators voted to deny women federal protection on defining pregnancy to biological women. All 50 ignorant Dem Senators voted NO! What a joke.

    Really? A Dem pollster poll doesn’t even have Dum, Dum Demings in the lead. Wake us up when it’s over!

    • Impeach Biden

      August 8, 2022 at 6:51 am

      Yes. Just like the garbage polls the Sun-Sentinel publishes in election season. Their polls over the years had DeSantis, Scott and Trump behind in Florida. All three were wrong. They also had Clinton beating Trump in 2016. The Ft Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel is absolute garbage.

      • Joe Corsin

        August 8, 2022 at 7:21 am

        Vote RED for shoveling money to the rich
        Vote RED for far right propaganda and lies
        Vote RED for religious law and religious police
        Vote RED for election thieves and autocracy
        Vote RED for anti-government terrorist militias

    • Joe Corsin

      August 8, 2022 at 7:23 am

      ^ Vote RED for forced birth of meth babies and crack babies like this guy
      ^ Vote RED for billionaires slaves like this guy
      ^ Vote RED for right wing propaganda pushers like this guy

      • Tom

        August 8, 2022 at 8:43 am

        I am Legend, corsin you are ignorant moron.

        I own you and Soros Manchurian nation. Marco up 10%.

        How’s your child birthing corsin. What a demented party, 50 Dem Senators voted no in protecting women.

        Marco Rubio brilliant!

        • Joe Corsin

          August 8, 2022 at 9:28 am

          FP legend = narcissistic delusion, phoney baloney, complete nonsense, complete imbecile.

          • Ron DeSantis Sucks

            August 8, 2022 at 6:09 pm

            Imagine being proud of being a “legend” on a political news site. What the hell.

      • Impeach Biden

        August 8, 2022 at 8:48 am

        Vote BLUE if you support Islamic terrorists like Omar and Tlaib.
        Vote BLUE if you support nightly fire bombings in Portland.
        Vote BLUE if you support the defund movement.
        Vote BLUE if you support cashless bail.
        Vote BLUE if you support open borders.
        Vote BLUE if you want to hire an additional 87,000 additional IRS agents.
        Vote BLUE if you want to continue to support Joe / Elliott living absolutely free of the Federal Government.

        • Joe Corsin

          August 8, 2022 at 5:39 pm

          ^ Vote BLUE to have terrorists and neo nazi propagandists like this guy behind bars….

        • Tjb

          August 9, 2022 at 2:11 pm

          Today, numerous republicans/ reds are looking to defund various law enforcement agencies.

        • John toth

          August 19, 2022 at 1:01 am

          Funny …. It’s the red fascists that want to defund law enforcement now…

    • tjb

      August 8, 2022 at 1:22 pm

      Susquehanna is a republican polling service.

      • Tom

        August 8, 2022 at 2:17 pm

        No one thinks that but you. You ate a simpleton though.

        If they can couch it good for them.
        Unlike Quinnipiac who had Gillium up 9, day before. Classic false flag trying to tip Election. They didn’t.

        • Tjb

          August 8, 2022 at 6:04 pm

          James Lee would disagree.

      • Philip M Ryan

        August 9, 2022 at 3:55 pm

        Oh, don’t you get it. It’s only bad when it’s a Democratic leaning pollster. It’s like everything they do. It’s all bad until they do it. Then it’s oh, it’s okay because it is us.

    • Terry

      August 8, 2022 at 5:53 pm

      It was be interesting to see a poll conducted exclusively by the Republican Party just as this poll is conducted by the Democrat Party. Nate Silver at 538.com ABC pollster, says these polls from Florida Watch and and Progress Florida are partisan sponsors for the Democratic Party. I would bet the percentages would be quite different.

      • Phil

        August 9, 2022 at 3:53 pm

        If we are going to have a competition on who is the dumbest voting bloc, let’s go for the Republicans who voted AGAINST capping insulin costs at $35 a month. When we have 7 MILLION people diabetics who rely on insulin. You really shouldn’t try to get into a competition about stupidity in voting, because your lot bring it to a new high.

    • Kristen

      August 15, 2022 at 11:32 pm

      Tom is mentally challenged and is the ugliest looking man here in Florida! His favorite movie is “Deliverance”. That’s tells you about his character! LOL

  • Joe Corsin

    August 8, 2022 at 9:31 am

    – Vote RED for empty suits who do nothing but spew toxic lies and shovel money to the rich
    – Vote RED for fake religious people who gonna burn in hell
    – Vote RED for far right psychos and terrorists
    – Vote RED for racism and incivility
    – Vote RED for trailer park terrorists protecting the redneck rich

  • JC Parets

    August 8, 2022 at 10:54 am

    Why are Trump supporters incapable of completing a sentence without using the terms moron or stupid? This is what divides America.

    • Elliott Offen

      August 8, 2022 at 5:42 pm

      Because they are stupid and must scapegoat. If they came to the full realization of their own degeneracy all at once… they might kill themselves. Their behaviors are defense mechanisms. They are fked in the head basically…

    • kelly

      August 15, 2022 at 11:30 pm

      Haha! Because they are fucken losers. NO friends and probably only passed 8th grade.

    • N Mead

      August 16, 2022 at 4:45 pm

      Democrat candidates are set on destroying the Constitution!

  • PeterH

    August 8, 2022 at 10:58 am

    Today’s Republicans have no vision to make America a better place for Americans. In 2020 the Republican Party RAN WITHOUT A PARTY PLATFORM!

    The week after Republicans lost the 2020 election their narrative changed to:
    1. Attack transgender wherever and whenever possible.
    2. There is a communist hiding in every crevice in America.
    3. “Don’t Say Gay” or your fired!
    4. COVID vaccines are designed to control Americans.
    5. Burn books we think are inappropriate. CRT is something we don’t understand so let’s destroy it!
    6. Return the American experience to some 1950’s magical place.
    7. Burn women and their doctors at the stake if they terminate an unwanted pregnancy

    THIS IS TODAY’S REPUBLICAN WINNING!

    Join real conservatives at the Lincoln Project or any one of a half dozen independent voter organizations to help DESTROY TODAY’S REPUBLICAN PARTY. The party must be destroyed before it can be rebuilt from the ground up.

  • Tom

    August 8, 2022 at 12:29 pm

    What divides America are two morons who are also stupid, such as peter h and Jc parrot. Just saying.

    • Elliott Offen

      August 8, 2022 at 5:44 pm

      Yeah those two morons are Trump and Trump. Couldn’t have done it if it weren’t for idiots like you.

  • Stash

    August 8, 2022 at 12:38 pm

    In 2019 Trump was a shoe-in for 2020 but his lack of proper action on Covid lost him the election. Anyone who thinks the Dems could possibly be so organized so as to “steal” the last election from a stable genius in red states must think Trump is a fool because he couldn’t stop it. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot !??

    Rebublicans lost the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 elections (W won it in 2004 by a slim margin because of 9-11).Basically they’re losers, nationally, who think everyone agrees with them. Kansas just disproved that theory.

    • Ron DeSantis Sucks

      August 8, 2022 at 6:11 pm

      Of course, Republicans know that the voters don’t like what they’re selling, and rather than tweak their platform to be compatible with the 21st century (which they could easily do — conservatism is a valid political philosophy in a liberal democracy like the US), they’d rather just abandon democracy.

  • tjb

    August 8, 2022 at 1:21 pm

    Why is Marco Rubio pushing to end Medicare and Social Security?

    • Impeach Biden

      August 9, 2022 at 3:34 pm

      Do you really believe that? This is standard Democrat fear mongering that happens every election cycle.

      • Tjb

        August 9, 2022 at 4:59 pm

        He is on record. Truth hurts.

  • Michael

    August 8, 2022 at 1:34 pm

    Crime, freedom from Covid and forcing transgender on kids will determine this and Val Demings is a nut!

  • Dan

    August 8, 2022 at 2:03 pm

    A potted plant would be a more effective Senator than Marco Rubio.

  • Former GOP

    August 8, 2022 at 4:55 pm

    The same people who brought you the Citizens United case giving corporations “freedom of political speech” with a view to funding their candidates in perpetuity are now actively punishing companies who exercise political speech not in agreement with their authoritarian views.

  • Ocean Joe

    August 8, 2022 at 6:39 pm

    Hard to believe more voters in the sample dislike Rubio than Desantis considering one is milk toast and the other is constantly trying to pick fights with everybody.
    I predict that Rubio will outperform Desantis in the general election, and if Florida is lucky: no hurricane hits us and both of these jokers lose.

  • martin

    August 9, 2022 at 3:51 pm

    “A progressive group has released polling suggesting Florida’s U.S. Senate race will be a nailbiter.”
    That first sentence is all I needed to read before deciding that this is a non-article, containing “fake news”.
    Dream on democrats. You will wake up the morning after election day, and start to cry your eyes out like you did after hillary was trounced.

  • Melania

    August 10, 2022 at 1:01 am

    Little Marco is the most vulnerable of all the Florida clowns. He’s desperate and he knows dealings is gonna take his seat.

  • Tom

    August 19, 2022 at 9:39 pm

    I wouldn’t spank you if corsin, bill, Elliot, peter h, Morton or anyone else was holding you.
    You would be lucky yo have me! But you can’t.
    You are the midnight pool girl.
    I am the masculine mang!

Comments are closed.


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