Poll: Aramis Ayala holds lead in Attorney General race but many voters remain uncommitted

Former Orange County State Attorney Aramis Ayala holds the edge in the Democratic Primary for Attorney General. But plenty of voters remain undecided heading into the Democratic Primary, according to St. Pete Polls.

A final survey conducted for Florida Politics shows that ahead of the Aug. 23 vote, Ayala leads with the support of 24% of likely Democratic Primary Voters. Behind her, Fort Lauderdale lawyer Jim Lewis and Panhandle lawyer Daniel Uhlfelder each boast support from about 17% each of respondents.

Conducted on Aug. 20 and 21, the poll of 1,617 likely Primary voters has a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points. That puts Ayala’s lead outside the MOE. Results of the poll were weighted to reflect the demographic makeup of active Democratic voters in Florida.

But nearly 43% remain undecided or won’t disclose their preference. That includes more than 49% of voters who had not yet voted by the time the poll was taken.

Notably, pollsters found 57% of voters already had voted either by mail or early voting by the time they answered the poll. About 37% could not or would not say who they had supported, notably a higher number than the level of support boasted by any candidate.

The poll found voters from various racial demographics holding different preferences. More than 31% of Hispanic voters want Aramis to win the nomination, for example, representing more than a 2-to-1 level of support over either Lewis or Uhlfelder. The first Black woman elected State Attorney in Florida, Ayala also gets 29% of the Black vote to Lewis’ 18% and Uhlfelder’s 7%.

Meanwhile more than 23% of White voters predict Uhlfelder, compared to 18% voting for Ayala and 17% going to Lewis. Uhlfelder is best known perhaps for his Grim Reaper protests against a lack of COVID-19 restrictions in 2020.

As for Lewis, he leads with 27% of Asian and Pacific Islander voters, compared to Ayala’s 20% and Uhlfelder’s 13%. He has largely self-funded in the race but hails from South Florida, a critical market in a Democratic Primary.

But 25% of all men and 23% of all women favor Ayala as the choice to run against Republican incumbent Ashley Moody in November. Ayala also holds a lead among all age groups, pollsters report.