Poll shows Marco Rubio with just a 3-point lead over Val Demings

That's within Impact Research pollsters' 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

A new poll shows Florida’s U.S. Senate contest tied within the margin of error and Democrat Val Demings winning independents.

Impact Research released polling showing Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio winning 49% of the vote, while Demings, an Orlando Congresswoman, takes 46% of the vote. That puts the candidates within the poll’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

The findings come from the same poll that showed Gov. Ron DeSantis leading Democratic U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist in the Florida Governor’s race. The Democratic Governors Association commissioned the survey.

Several polls in recent weeks have shown the Senate race effectively tied. This one suggested Demings can make gains in name recognition.

“Demings’ name ID after two months of statewide television advertising is 67% to Rubio’s 94%, indicating a lot of room to grow as more voters tune into the race and Demings’ continues to hold an advantage in TV ads,” a polling memo states. “Notably, Demings leads Rubio 50-37 with self-described independent voters.”

That’s a similar situation to what Impact Research found in the Governor’s race. Rubio and DeSantis still hold leads based on partisan loyalty and name recognition, but voters unaffiliated with either political party appear to be breaking hard against the incumbents. The survey found independent voters breaking for Crist over DeSantis 52% to 39%, even as DeSantis had a lead of 51% to Crist’s 46% overall.

One difference in the Senate race, while DeSantis holds a massive cash advantage over Crist, Demings has consistently outraised Rubio this election cycle. Through Aug. 3, the Democratic nominee for Senate raised more than $46 million for the race, while Rubio has only pulled in about $38 million.

Both candidates have gone on TV with advertising, including a barrage of negative ads Rubio has aired against Demings since the poll was taken. Impact Research conducted its poll between Aug. 12 and 18, several days before Florida’s Aug. 23 Democratic Primary.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • Ocean Joe

    August 30, 2022 at 6:15 pm

    The race is close because Rubio is a Rino.
    And being a Rino is the best thing that can be said about him.

    • Brian

      September 5, 2022 at 7:23 pm

      How is Rubio a Rino? Rubio has been an excellent Senator for the state of Florida and is constantly attacked by the left because they are scared of him. Rubio needs to win here in Florida to keep that crazy liberal woman from representing Florida. VOTE Rubio!!!!!!

  • Charlie Crist

    August 30, 2022 at 6:17 pm

    The GOP neo nazi apparatus is buckling a bit. Vote BLUE to save humanity from the grifters and TERRORISTS.

  • Terry

    August 30, 2022 at 7:14 pm

    Another poll commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association, by the same polling firm that Joe Biden uses for his personal polling data. And still both Rubio and DeSantis remain ahead in these bias polls.

    • Joe Corsin

      August 30, 2022 at 7:32 pm

      What do the polls say about Trump crime spree???

      • Terry

        August 30, 2022 at 7:38 pm

        Did any one mention Trump’s name? By the way, how many screen names do you have?

        • Joe Corsin

          August 30, 2022 at 10:30 pm

          Yeah I mentioned his name. Still haven’t heard from Trump supporters what they think of his crime spree. Until I get an honest and insightful answer I’ll keep bringing it up from time to time.

          • Terry

            August 30, 2022 at 10:41 pm

            Oh look — A real internet tough guy!! Now, how many screen names do you have again.?

          • Joe Corsin

            August 30, 2022 at 10:48 pm

            I asked about Trump crime spree and I get accused of trying to be a tough guy and something about screen names. By God these people are de-evolving back into apes….

          • Terry

            August 30, 2022 at 11:20 pm

            This whole article talks about a poll that was commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association. You bring up Trump when he has nothing to do with the polling. You really think you’re fooling people with your multiple accounts and screen names.

          • Joe Corsin

            August 30, 2022 at 11:39 pm

            I’ll bring up whatever I want to buddy. Feel free to answer or not…or alternatively do whatever in the hell it is that you are currently doing. God only knows…

          • Terry

            August 30, 2022 at 11:56 pm

            And I can bring up anthing I want to as well. You are a fraud!!. You never have an intelligent conversation with anyone, All you do is name call and make up wild accusations..I will not waste anymore of my time with you. Peace Out

          • June

            September 6, 2022 at 1:45 pm

            They don’t care! They’ve lost moral compass!

      • Impeach Biden

        August 31, 2022 at 7:40 am

        When will we read about the Biden crime spree. I am very interested how Hunter got a job with a Burisma, collected all that money and doesn’t speak / understand the native language. Now he blows paint through straws and calls it art. I guess he has lots of experience with straws but rather than blowing he was sniffing through his nose.

        • Joe Corsin

          August 31, 2022 at 7:48 am

          Biden crime spree? AHHHAHAHAHA AHHHH…

          • ted

            August 31, 2022 at 11:13 pm

            He’s a lying crook. If you don’t think he’s a crook you probably think Hunter is a priest. He is a drug addict, his sister has been arrested three times and been in rehab more then a couple of times. And Joe has been the BIG GUY behind the operation taking a cut.

      • Brian

        September 5, 2022 at 7:25 pm

        What crime spree? You must be refering to the 1000s of classified document Hilary put out into unclassified servers and into cyber space for anyone to grab. You can’t be talking about less than 100 classified docs in a box in a secure home in Florida. You liberals are such hypocrates it is just amazing.

  • tom palmer

    August 30, 2022 at 7:15 pm

    The only poll that matters is the one on Nov. 8

  • Terry

    August 30, 2022 at 7:44 pm

    True- the results on 11/8 are the only ones that count. I would like to see a poll that is commissioned by the Republican Governors Association using their own personal polling firm. My guess is the results would be quite a bit different.

  • PeterH

    August 30, 2022 at 8:29 pm

    For decades Rubio ran on a strict anti abortion platform. You can read about Rubio’s signature legislation nicknamed “the Scarlet Letter Legislation” …. It’s hard to believe it was actually law in Florida.

    Of course Republicans have stopped talking about their abortion policies. It’s commonly called hypothetical.

    Vote Republicans out of office.

    • PeterH

      August 30, 2022 at 8:30 pm


  • Impeach Biden

    August 31, 2022 at 6:28 am

    I’m sure this bogus poll will end up in the Sun-Sentinel. This rag paper has a history of publishing misleading polls that often put the Democrat ahead hoping that the Repubs simply won’t participate in the voting process. The 2016 Presidential, the 2018 US Senate, the 2018 Florida Governor, the 2020 who would win the state of Florida in the presidential race are just a few of the polls that got it wrong and we’re published in the People’s Paper of Broward County.

    • Charlie Crist

      August 31, 2022 at 7:56 am

      Yeah Trump was ultimate discourager from voting. If elections are rigged and stolen then what’s the point in voting?😆

  • Daniela Patterson

    August 31, 2022 at 9:00 am

    Please can someone enlighten me how to get rid of the Trolls on this Page? I am sick to death to read their rediculous comments! I see no mute or block !

  • Hope

    August 31, 2022 at 9:33 am

    Florida Politics how low can you go?! You have the Google search engine rigged so that when you put in Florida Politics Val Demings comes up. Please disclose how much the Demmings campaign is paying Florida Politics and then we will discuss the legitimacy of this bogus poll.

    It will be Marco Rubio win and it will be by a landslide.

    • marylou

      August 31, 2022 at 12:49 pm

      Rubio voted for Florida’s Scarlet Letter Law, which forced single mothers who wanted to be ALLOWED to put their babies up for adoption to pay for one month of ads in their local newspaper detailing their recent sexual histories and partners.

      The ads included women’s names, ages, physical descriptions including her hair, weight and eye color. Women were required to provide details about their sexual encounters — including names of sexual partners, dates and locations. The legislation had no exceptions for victims of rape or incest, and even required girls under the age of 18 to comply.

      He’s not “pro-life”. Rubio is anti women. Women are rejecting Rubio.

      • Terry

        August 31, 2022 at 2:08 pm

        This was in 2001 when Rubio was a State Legislator. You are going back over 20 years to find negative things about certain Republicans you don’t agree with. What you didn’t bother to divulge was that Lois Frankel, my current Democrat Congresswoman and former Mayor of West Palm Beach also voted for this law. Charlie Crist was the Republican Commissioner of Education a staunch conservative. Fast forward 21years, after changing parties at least 2-3 times, he’s running for Governor of Florida as a Democrat progressive, or do he says.


        • marylou

          September 1, 2022 at 9:46 pm

          Rubio is still at it. Now he wants to take away retirees’ earned Social Security and Medicare, and shovel it to his rich donors and friends, who will also benefit from a larger workforce with few options.
          Rubio’s still showing his misogyny and disrespect for religious rights by forcing his “pro-life” religious beliefs onto women. He supports a full abortion ban which would make no exceptions for rape, incest, or even for young children.
          I don’t know anything about Lois Frankel, but I would feel the same way about anyone who voted for shaming women. For a lot of girls and women this law took away their right to choose by coercing them into rejecting adoption. How many abortions do you think that law was responsible for?

  • Tom

    August 31, 2022 at 10:29 am

    Terry, FP is a left of center publication.
    I jumped in 2 yrs ago and pulled it back to center. I challenge Peter S and Joe H when needed.

    Impeach and I rally the cause against the far left, Soros Manchurian nation. Corsin is the latest wacko on their behalf. It is infiltrated by many 5% Dums. Corsin is Alex who I sent to the wacky hospital early in year. He was vile. Corsin uses Elliot and Charlie as alias.

    He is not substantive. He suffers from TDS. He and others don’t want to discuss the Dums. They just attack Trump and DeSantis.

    Just hit the substance, he and others can’t deal with it. I was glad to see you focusing on the polls. They are sandbag polls, push polls. Dems are desperate to show life, the donors want nothing to do with Florida, and chameleon.
    Dumings is different as that draws national appeal, Dems have communist chinese donors.

    Continue on substance, that’s what made me the FP legend. I get attacked from all trolls and Manchurian nation, which I welcome and destroy. Glad to welcome you and Hope.

  • Dr Ramos

    September 1, 2022 at 9:44 am

    Rubio is the most useless member of senate . His time has come to go . He hasn’t done anything for us here in Florida .

  • Democrat

    September 2, 2022 at 4:55 pm

    Why don’t you clean up your OWN house first, before you talk shit about Hunter!!

    Trump taught everyone how to sniff adderall through a straw, and trump’s multiple fraud schemes like trump university and his ripoff on “build the wall” and now the “save the steal” scam make Hunter’s gig as a board member of Burisma look like child’s play.

Comments are closed.


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