Latest poll of Florida Governor race: Ron DeSantis 50%, Charlie Crist 47%

Crist_Desantis side_by_side (6)
But DeSantis holds a stronger edge with older voters, an AARP poll shows.

Gov. Ron DeSantis holds the support of a slight majority of voters, according to a new poll commissioned by AARP.

Two of the nation’s top pollsters conducted the survey, which found the incumbent with 50% support from likely voters, while Democrat Charlie Crist holds 47%. That puts the race firmly within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error.

Notably, the Republican Governor holds a stronger position with voters over 50, who prefer DeSantis by a 52% to 47% margin.

“Florida voters 50 and older are a critical voting demographic that all candidates are competing for in this midterm election,” said Jeff Johnson, state director for AARP Florida.

AARP surveyed voters in swing states on the candidates they prefer and the most critical issues. Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic outfit Impact Research worked together on the comprehensive survey.

The gold-standard pollster found Republicans in decent shape in Florida, at least based on a sample that forecasts 3% more Republicans come out to vote in November than Democrats.

As long as older voters turn out with greater reliability than those under age 50 — consistent with historic trends — the Governor appears to be on track for a second term. But the contest remains close partly because DeSantis underperforms with non-senior voters. For respondents ages 18 to 49, Crist wins 51% to 46%.

Of note, the poll found Democrats, if anything, more eager to vote in November than Republicans, with 93% of Democrats saying they felt motivated to vote in the general election compared to 90% of Republicans and 82% of independents. That’s partly thanks to the intense emotions inspired across the board by DeSantis.

“There’s no one who polarizes the electorate as much as Gov. Ron DeSantis, even more so than Donald Trump,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio.

What’s also noteworthy is that DeSantis is more popular than Crist.

About 51% of voters think well of DeSantis, and 47% view him unfavorably, giving him a net favorability rating of +4%. Crist, meanwhile, is underwater with voters, with just 53% viewing him favorably and 48% expressing a distaste for the former Republican Governor turned Democratic Congressman, about a -5% rating.

Pollsters noted that DeSantis consistently has come out ahead in polls and has a massive financial advantage in the race.

“It’s just about how much you’re willing to spend to get an additional point,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone of Impact Research. “But I’m telling you that movement this cycle is glacial.”

But whether they like candidates or not, voters on both sides seem intensely energized for the November vote.

Here is the polling document:

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


49 comments

  • Phil Morton

    September 7, 2022 at 6:46 am

    So, if 3% more Republicans don’t turn out in November, then the race is a toss up. I can live with that.

    • Avy115

      September 7, 2022 at 4:51 pm

      Are you tired with your job good opportunity vs14 Online Working Home Base Jobs for you here.

      Copy This Site———->>> googlechoice.netlify.app

      • Elliott Offen

        September 7, 2022 at 6:37 pm

        Yeah send Trump that link. He got fired…needs work.😂

  • Charlie Crist

    September 7, 2022 at 7:50 am

    Vote for me. I will body slam Ron DeDumbDumb into the sewer. Florida for all…not just religious whackos and anti-government terrorists. Together we can quell the fascist melee.

    • Billy Rotberg

      September 7, 2022 at 1:21 pm

      Troll farm virus alert! Coward hiding behind a fake profile.
      What are you afraid of?

      • Arnold Schwarzenegger

        September 7, 2022 at 3:12 pm

        ^ Someone look this guy’s name up and send a left wing death squad over to his house.

        • Alfred E Newman

          September 10, 2022 at 9:24 am

          ^ The party of tolerance and inclusion

  • Astrid

    September 7, 2022 at 7:51 am

    Let’s hope Florida voters show they believe in a democracy

  • Impeach Biden

    September 7, 2022 at 8:10 am

    Truly hard to believe this poll. Then again like many of the polls posted in the Ft Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel this one is way off as well. DeSantis is extremely popular in Florida. Of course the hard core leftist liberals that fled high taxes, high crime, of the BLUE states for Florida will always vote BLUE. Yes these people are the ones that vote for squad members, Hirono, Warren, Newsom, Pritzker, Pelosi, and on and on. They are truly beyond help.

    • Elliott Offen

      September 7, 2022 at 9:41 am

      ^ Needs Fat Cammack face sit. Pelosi golden shower to wash off the aftermath of the scrub. Teach you good lesson about the GOP..

      • Billy Rotberg

        September 7, 2022 at 1:26 pm

        There it is! The blue mutants daily message of unity.

        • Elliott Offen

          September 7, 2022 at 3:13 pm

          Trump destroyed it forever. This is the new norm. You people earned it!

          • marylou

            September 7, 2022 at 5:26 pm

            Trump has destroyed too much. Trump watched his violent MAGAs attack the Capitol. He didn’t stop it. Instead he watched Ashli Babbitt be shot to death. Even a woman sacrificing her life for him wasn’t meaningful enough to cause him to call off his attack. Trump pardoned his friends, but watched his voters go off to jail. Some are still waiting there.

        • Impeach Biden

          September 7, 2022 at 5:59 pm

          Blue Mutants. Hilarious. Can I steal that?

          • Fat Cammack

            September 7, 2022 at 6:04 pm

            Vote for me. I’ll change the official Florida State food to biscuits and gravy with a pint of powdered sugar. Throw in some raisins..boom.

        • Jana Murdock

          September 19, 2022 at 2:01 pm

          There it is, the angry white male message of division because deep inside they feel so powerless

  • Hope

    September 7, 2022 at 8:47 am

    Everyone knows De Santos is ahead. Republicans will turn out to vote and DeSantis will win resoundingly. I believe the Democrats are disillusioned as they have no plans or platforms only gaslighting. Breaking the economy guarantees a win for Republicans.

    Also, a lot of the Democrats will sit this one out because they are disillusioned with Biden, Andrew Gillium, and the economy.

    • Impeach Biden

      September 7, 2022 at 8:55 am

      Beware of the voter harvesters Hope. They were obviously out there collecting votes from people that have probably never voted before in an election in 2020. If the Stacy Abrams convoy shows up in Florida, Watch Out.

      • Charlie Crist

        September 7, 2022 at 10:23 am

        Beware of election thief Donald Trump 😆

        • Billy Rotberg

          September 7, 2022 at 1:25 pm

          Beware of chi com bots using fake screen names. What are hiding from, Chang?

    • Joe Corsin

      September 7, 2022 at 9:42 am

      You have been lying up a storm on this website. Ought to be ashamed of yourself.

    • The sane1

      September 7, 2022 at 11:11 am

      God, theres no ” hope ” for you. You got everything backasswards. Live under a rock much.

    • JM

      September 8, 2022 at 10:28 am

      ^^^ Has a love affair for conjecture^^^

    • Jana Murdock

      September 19, 2022 at 1:55 pm

      Ha, ha.
      Engage in projection much? DeSantis may win and it will be by a very small margin. Just watch.
      I wouldn’t call him extremely popular. Beyond Let’s Go Ronda, democracy is on the ballot. We don’t need a bully with a 5th grade angry mentality running the state.

  • Tom

    September 7, 2022 at 9:06 am

    Just another push poll by AARP.
    Fabrizio owes us better, regardless DeSantis and Rubio are ahead, with every effort to diminish both.

    The overall numbers play to DeSantis and Rubio’s advantage.

    If we can, if we can, if we can.
    DeSantis and Rubio are clearly in the lead in other polls by 5 to 8pts. To suggest Rubio is under performing with Repub. is a joke.
    They both will receive 95% or greater GOP vote.

    Not one poll places either in lead. Clueless Morton, you have no choice. Your candidates are losing.

    Spare us.

    • Pastor Sandell

      September 7, 2022 at 9:45 am

      Spare us? Spare us from your mental disorder and intellectual disabilities. You going to hell for your lies buddy. You better believe it.

      • Billy Rotberg

        September 7, 2022 at 1:34 pm

        “We choose unity over division”
        Thanks for confirming that was never true.

    • Whodathunkit

      September 7, 2022 at 12:59 pm

      No doubt AARP is a far left organization. Everything coming from them is mostly leftist propaganda.

      • Elliott Offen

        September 7, 2022 at 3:18 pm

        You got dung in your skull… victim of far right propaganda. Seek help. Quite possibly you’ve been abused.

  • PeterH

    September 7, 2022 at 10:54 am

    Obviously for many many reasons this will be a very close election. Republicans will lose a number of governorships and Senate seats the thought they would easily win.

    Young people are registering to vote in large numbers …. up 20% in some States. Suburban women are overwhelmingly rejecting the GQP in large numbers for a variety of reasons.

    If Americans want women to control their own bodies, qualified teachers to replace DeSantis’s culture wars in classrooms, intelligent teacher-student conversations concerning the social issues facing Americans in the 21st century, non-bullying discussion about classroom students who are different, common sense gun regulations, and a new honest approach on how best to address climate change……

    AMERICANS MUST VOTE ALL REPUBLICANS OUT OF OFFICE.

    REPUBLICANS ARE AMERICA’S PROBLEM.

    • Billy Rotberg

      September 7, 2022 at 1:24 pm

      “We choose unity over division”

      LMAO

      Such an obvious lie.

      • Joe Corsin

        September 7, 2022 at 4:24 pm

        After justice for Trump crime spree… things will be better. You people surely aren’t helping and should be held accountable for it. What are you people pro crime???

      • Jana

        September 19, 2022 at 1:58 pm

        Angry white male much? How does it feel to have your mind controlled by either anger or fear?

  • Billy Rotberg

    September 7, 2022 at 1:36 pm

    Democrats have nothing to offer and are all confirmed liars.
    The “We choose unity over division” line was a dead giveaway.
    See their comments on this and other threads.

    • JM

      September 8, 2022 at 10:33 am

      ^^^Has a fetish for Michelle^^^

  • Joe Corsin

    September 7, 2022 at 3:16 pm

    Trump 40,000 lies over four years culminating in the big lie, big arrests, big crime spree. Trump is a confirmed liar a million times over.

  • Ocean Joe

    September 7, 2022 at 5:08 pm

    52% unfavorable for Little Marco. What’s that all about?

    • Tom

      September 7, 2022 at 7:41 pm

      Totally skewed numbers, these leftist polling efforts are doing handstands to come up with numbers that show some favorability.

      The first poll 10 days ago had Marco extra low with Hispanics. Really ? But still in lead. The Dem leaning polls are really sand bags. Trying to raise money with Dem contributors.
      Both races are out of hand.

  • marylou

    September 7, 2022 at 7:01 pm

    Desantis’s abusive overreach into women’s bodies makes him unfit to lead the state. He appears to believe that he actually owns women, and has the right to control all aspects of women’s lives. His veto of contraceptives for poor women shows exactly his belief that he has a god-given right to dictate women’ sexual behavior and make women suffer the consequences if they are disobedient. He will demand a 100% no exceptions, abortion ban at his Nov special session. Why is Desantis refusing to insist on a statewide abortion rights vote, which would be consistent with SCOTUS ruling that the people should decide? Do the Republicans not want to know what the people want?

    • Impeach Biden

      September 7, 2022 at 8:22 pm

      Are you aware of what the law is in Florida? 15 weeks. That’s the law. You want to interject your fears and concerns but you are simply wrong in your position. 15 weeks is the law and over 90% currently comply with the law.

      • Tom

        September 7, 2022 at 9:12 pm

        Mary who is a total fraud Impeach.
        Just extremism. Total talking points.
        She supports 9th month and after birth. I told her 15 weeks and 2 docs note for emergency, she’s hysterical.

        Pure abortionist.

        • Charlie Crist

          September 7, 2022 at 11:46 pm

          @Tom: With people like you running around, no doubt eventually there will be a push to extend abortion to the 60th year of life 😂

        • James Madison

          September 8, 2022 at 10:41 am

          Can you construct a grammatically correct sentence?

      • marylou

        September 8, 2022 at 4:33 pm

        There are many reasons that a 100% ban is expected. Among them:

        1) 2018 in debates Desantis promised a 6 week ban. (before Dobbs)
        2) Signed his 15 week ban in a church. (before Dobbs)
        3) When Dobbs was announced, Desantis proclaimed that he would go further to “protect life”.
        4) When Dobbs was announced Desantis preached about how “prayers of millions have been answered”.
        5) 2021 and 2022 Desantis vetoed funding for contraceptives for poor women and teens. Desantis’s veto of the Republican legislation (Wilton Simpson), was on orders of The Conference of Catholic Bishops in a letter which stated that contraceptives were abortifacients, and demanded the veto. So, Desantis, with his veto, effectively signed a fertilized egg abortion ban (for those women that he has control over.)
        6) Desantis’s party thinks so: “A GOP operative told NBC News that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is holding off on more restrictive abortion bans than the 15-week ban already in place while he seeks re-election, but is expected to go further if he wins a second term.
        “The strategy is obvious. Do it AFTER THE GUBERNATORIAL so as to not piss off suburban women, then screw them over after the election in order to appease fire-breathing pro-lifers in a presidential primary.”–NBC News

        The contraceptive ban (#5), is especially cruel because Desantis knows how much suffering he is causing. He is putting his church’s crusade before the lives of women and girls—-and their families. #5 is the most convincing evidence of his intention to demand a 100% Catholic Church ban. Even more frightening, Catholics disagree on whether even the woman’s life is a permissible exception.

    • Dan

      September 7, 2022 at 9:22 pm

      In 2024, there will certainly be amendments to the state constitution on the ballot in Florida on the issue of abortion. The voters will get a say soon enough on abortion regardless what happens in this race. There is nothing on the ballot this cycle because the SCOTUS decision came too late for either side to get an amendment approved.

      • marylou

        September 8, 2022 at 7:48 pm

        Some women can’t wait for 2024.
        Since conservative Kansas’s rejection of an amendment to remove the right to abortion from their constitution, other states’ amendment proposals are being rejected by Republican committee members. Florida’s voter initiative process is always under Republican attack, and getting rid of voter control of anything is probably their #1 goal! From trying to raise percentage of voters needed to approve amendments, to doing whatever damage they can to amendments that voters approve. Like felon voting rights!

        After five decades of Republican war on Constitutional abortion rights, Desantis is mysteriously— and uncharacteristically—- silent. Desantis also is refusing to demand a statewide vote on an abortion ban. Why doesn’t Desantis want to hear from the voters? Why did all the SCOTUS inspired “state’s rights” chanting stop? Republicans don’t care what you think. Vote for Crist.

  • Dan

    September 7, 2022 at 9:47 pm

    Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight forecasts DeSantis with a 92% chance of winning.
    A Susquehanna poll just released shows DeSantis up by 4.
    Keep in mind Trump won the state by 3.5 points in 2020. So this is all pretty much on par. Democrats haven’t gained anything in the last 2 years. The GOP has gained voters. So a 4-5 pt DeSantis victory would be expected. Florida’s elections are notorious for being razor thin close. So a 4-5 point win would be a convincing win and evidence that Florida continues shifting more to the right with each election.

  • R

    September 8, 2022 at 10:13 am

    How can the people that screamed “not my president” at the sky, and tried to remove a sitting president due to an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory that Trump somehow conspired with Putin to win the Electoral College (whatever that even looks like), how can these people accuse anyone of being a threat to democracy?

    January 6th was a continuation of what the left started. For four years, the left tried to delegitimize Trump’s presidency. Naturally, even predictably, Trump returned the favor immediately. January 6th is the fault of the modern left.

  • Audrey Inglesby

    September 19, 2022 at 6:34 pm

    Seriously, no one could be so thick that they can’t see thru the Trump and DeSantis political theatrics. Its not Florida stupid…its the 2024 Presidential race. Whether you love Trump or hate him, don’t we all just want him to go away? DeSantis had possibilities but now he’s poisoned the well by being Trump 2.0. The Trump Show Is like a bad 1980’s sitcom rerun. Boring, arkward and pathetic.

Comments are closed.


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