Latest poll of Florida U.S. Senate race: Marco Rubio 49%, Val Demings 47%

A new AARP shows the incumbent with just a 2-point lead.

A new poll shows Sen. Marco Rubio is under the critical 50% mark with Florida voters.

The survey results, conducted for AARP Florida by two top pollsters, reveal the Republican Senator with a slim lead, winning 49% support among likely voters to Democrat Val Demings’ 47%. That puts the race well within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error.

Incumbents, as a rule, want to poll ahead of 50% as they seek re-election, but the results of the AARP poll signal the state remains as divided as ever. And when it comes to federal elections, issues like Medicare and Medicaid support and interest in cheaper pharmaceutical drug costs loom especially large.

Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic outfit Impact Research worked together on the comprehensive survey.

Rubio holds a lead of 51% to Demings’ 46% when looking solely at voters over the age of 50, a more reliable demographic regarding turnout.

The polling also shows 92% of Democrats supporting Demings while 90% of Republicans defend Rubio. The incumbent comes out ahead thanks to 48% of independents breaking his way, compared to 45% voting for the Democrat.

Rubio’s place seems particularly precarious considering a large segment of voters remains unfamiliar with Demings. She holds a solid net favorability rating, with 42% of respondents liking her and just 28% disliking her. But that leaves a full 30% with no opinion, a sign that the Central Florida Congresswoman has room to grow in recognition.

“Val Demings is still not known or defined to a sizable chunk of these voters,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio of Fabrizio Ward.

John Anzalone, the founder of Impact Research, noted that the poll found that 19% of voters remain persuadable. By comparison, only 11% of voters fall in that camp in the Governor’s race, which was surveyed simultaneously.

“Seniors are going to be a critical deciding factor in the Demings race,” Hogan said, “and again, setting up what I’m sure she’s going to communicate on are some of the things that just got done.”

For example, the inflation Reduction Act, which Demings supported in the House and Rubio opposed in the Senate, tests well. It’s also popular to allow Medicare to negotiate drug costs.

“The Senate race issues are dominated by senior-related issues,” Hogan said.

Here is the polling document:

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • Phil Morton

    September 7, 2022 at 6:37 am

    Rick Scott’s horrible leadership of the NRSC will cost the GOP the U.S. Senate and may well send the senior senator from Florida packing.

    • Avy115

      September 7, 2022 at 5:00 pm

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  • Val Demings

    September 7, 2022 at 7:55 am

    Vote for me. Let’s send fascist Boobio back to Cuba on a reverse banana boat.

    • Impeach Biden

      September 7, 2022 at 8:16 am

      How are you going to defend your Congressional record? You voted the way the Evil Witch of the West “Pelosi” told you to. I don’t think Pelosi is very popular here in Florida. Good luck spinning that and good luck defending the record of Der Fuhrer.

      • Joe Corsin

        September 7, 2022 at 9:55 am

        Der Furher? You mean Orange Hitler?? Lay off the pills and booze you clown!!!!

      • Betsy

        September 8, 2022 at 11:44 am

        you think that’s really Val Demings, don’t you.

        • Paul Passarelli

          September 8, 2022 at 1:04 pm

          Hi Betsy, you must be new here. Welcome.

          No, those of us here that express sane opinions know that the dozens of aliases that write garbage like that all belong to 3 perhaps 4 trolls. They work the site spewing nonsense so that a quick scan of the sites performance make it seem more influential than it is.

          The site is pretty far Left in actuality, so they really really try to attack anything that is written with even a tidbit or reasonable thoughtfulness. But mostly they concentrate on name calling, and outright lies. That and Democrat Party talking points, even after they’ve been disproved or revealed to be known falsehoods.

          We need more participants here that will not stoop to the Left’s level of vulgarity & pubescent humor.

          I’d list the fakes, but there are so many that it’s just not possible. In a short time you’ll come to quickly recognize the trolls from their lack of intellect & poor writing style.

          Hopefully you’ll stay and add some sanity to the site.

    • Michael Quinones sr

      September 8, 2022 at 2:45 am

      Wow that sounds really racist of you!

  • Paul Passarelli

    September 7, 2022 at 8:29 am

    LOL — “The survey results, conducted for AARP Florida by two top pollsters, reveal the Republican Senator with a slim lead, winning 49% support among likely voters to Democrat Val Demings’ 47%. That puts the race well within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error.”

    Which means actual tallies were : Rubio 53.4% vs Demings 42.6%

    “Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics” — aka “Lessons from Democrat Companion playbook”

    • Elliott Offen

      September 7, 2022 at 9:53 am

      Trump 40,000 lies over four years culminating in the big lie… which resulted in many arrested and convicted for crimes against the nation. You’re over there smoking meth buddy!!!

      • Michael Quinones sr

        September 8, 2022 at 2:51 am

        Pretty woke of you when you listen to that liar barr and call Trump a liar LoL who’s on them drugs you do know especially with declassifying the president has the ultimate authority and that was started by Mr Bill Clinton who is so corrupt it’s incredible look up the rule because it started with Clinton’s taking things out of the White House and you’re listening to a guy like Bill Barr look up the rules and the laws

    • PeterH

      September 7, 2022 at 11:11 am

      The margin of error could favor either candidate.

      • Paul Passarelli

        September 7, 2022 at 12:29 pm

        Yes, the Margin of Error (MoE) could go either way. However that’s not the message I was trying to convey. My message was about Leftwing push polls and the way that Leftists that commission them use those polls to distort the facts, which is basically the Democrat Modus Operandi.

        I simply added the MoE to the GOP side and deducted it from the Left. Why? To undo the deception that the clients of the poll undoubtedly worked in to their (simplified) published results.

        You might recall I insulted Quinnipiac Polls in an earlier post. That’s because the “Q” were notorious for running polls for the Left that would run until the results desired by the client were achieved. There is ample evidence of that tactic being used, It’s even described in the “Users’ Guide”.

        Anyway, the Dems are focusing on publishing poll results that they favored to make their side appear to be in a stronger position than honest disclosure would have the people believe.

        The thing that bothers me most is that Democrat voters still fall for these lies.

    • Whodathunkit

      September 7, 2022 at 1:03 pm

      It is well known AARP is a far left organization. Everything coming from them is skewed heavily to favor the Dems.

  • PeterH

    September 7, 2022 at 11:08 am

    Marco Rubio continues to stumble every time he opens his mouth. Just the other day he propped up the GQP’s party leader with a minimized statement that purported “the highly classified documents at Mar-a-Lago should be evaluated as a ‘storage’ problem.

    We’ll last evening the Washington Post alerted its readers that one of the hundreds of highly classified documents detailed nuclear weapons and capabilities of a foreign government. No big thing ….. right Republicans?!?!?

    Today’s Republican Party has no vision or policies to make America a better place FOR ALL Americans. They’re running in circles trying to prop up the most despicable MAGA clowns within their Party. We learned late last night that Steve Bannon has once again been indicted on new charges.

    If Americans want women to control their own bodies, qualified teachers to replace DeSantis’s culture wars in classrooms, intelligent teacher-student conversations concerning the social issues facing Americans in the 21st century, non-bullying discussion about classroom students who are different, common sense gun regulations, and a new honest approach on how best to address climate change……



    • Whodathunkit

      September 7, 2022 at 1:07 pm

      So Pete, you are advocating for a socialist/Marxist state where the Government is your Daddy and you are their b!+ch ? To each his own based upon his need. Determined by the elitist .right?

  • ted kamie

    September 7, 2022 at 10:01 pm

    Look around you, immigration , gas prices, crime, dementia, a dope addict kids, the price of food and everything else. Are you serious. President Biden speaking to the country Wednesday. His administration has attempted to redefine what infrastructure means (it’s not only about improving roads, bridges and power grids but also about paid family leave and child care) and what a recession means (it’s not two straight quarters of negative gross domestic product growth anymore). But it just moved into the lead to win the “Lie of the Year” award with the claim that the U.S. economy is experiencing zero inflation.

Comments are closed.


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