Associated Press
Climate change added at least 10% more rain to Hurricane Ian, a study prepared immediately after the storm shows.
Thursday’s research, which is not peer-reviewed, compared peak rainfall rates during the real storm to about 20 different computer scenarios of a model with Hurricane Ian’s characteristics slamming into the Sunshine State in a world with no human-caused climate change.
“The real storm was 10% wetter than the storm that might have been,” said Lawrence Berkeley National Lab climate scientist Michael Wehner, study co-author.
Forecasters predicted Ian will have dropped up to two feet (61 centimeters) of rain in parts of Florida by the time it stopped.
Wehner and Kevin Reed, an atmospheric scientist at Stony Brook University, published a study in Nature Communications earlier this year looking at the hurricanes of 2020 and found during their rainiest three-hour periods they were more than 10% wetter than in a world without greenhouse gases trapping heat. Wehner and Reed applied the same scientifically accepted attribution technique to Hurricane Ian.
A long-time rule of physics is that for every extra degree of warmth Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), the air in the atmosphere can hold 7% more water. This week the Gulf of Mexico was 0.8 degrees warmer than normal, which should have meant about 5% more rain. Reality turned out to be even worse. The flash study found the hurricane dropped double that — 10% more rain.
Ten percent may not sound like a lot, but 10% of 20 inches is two inches, which is a lot of rain, especially on top of the 20 inches that already fell, Reed said.
Other studies have seen the same feedback mechanisms of stronger storms in warmer weather, said Princeton University atmospheric scientist Gabriel Vecchi, who wasn’t part of the study.
MIT hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel said in general, a warmer world does make storms rainier. But he said he is uncomfortable drawing conclusions about individual storms.
“This business above very very heavy rain is something we’ve expected to see because of climate change,” he said. “We’ll see more storms like Ian.”
Princeton’s Vecchi said in an email that if the world is going to bounce back from disasters “we need to plan for wetter storms going forward, since global warming isn’t going to go away.”
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Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
8 comments
Paul Passarelli
September 30, 2022 at 1:11 pm
The publisher wrote: “Thursday’s research, which is not peer-reviewed, …”
Which is all anyone really needs to know about the veracity of the conclusion.
Elliott Offen
September 30, 2022 at 3:23 pm
You gonna give us money regardless we gonna take some money out of your fat ass pockets. You people are the reason why Trump got elected and cut taxes for himself and billionaire money hoarders who fk up the economy and drive wealth and income inequality. So you gonna pay…
Paul Passarelli
September 30, 2022 at 5:16 pm
Hey, @Elliot Offen, or whoever you are:
Based on the time difference between this comment & the Flat Earth comment below I’m surmising it actually took you three minutes to write that crap. So let me ask you a few questions to see it you actually read the replies or are just blathering according to some demented script.
How many aliases do you use? How do you decide which alias to switch between as you write each comment?
Where do you submit your requests for payment from George Soros, and how do his people actually verify that you are the one spewing the crap you spew?
Are you still trolling the Daily Voice newspapers up in New York? Which trolling pays better? Why do you think that is?
Elliott Offen
September 30, 2022 at 8:25 pm
You gonna give us some money..or all your GD money. Your choice…
Richard Bruce
September 30, 2022 at 1:23 pm
BS study based on biased computer models with biased interpretations resulting in biased conclusions. Who paid for this study and why?
Hope
September 30, 2022 at 1:43 pm
Climate change fanatics are self-appointed experts and the new Sci-co-paths.
It goes from global warming to global cooling to acid rain to the ozone layer all theories and based on manipulated data.
Charlie Crist
September 30, 2022 at 3:20 pm
👆Flat earther…also Trump dumb dumb.
Paul Passarelli
September 30, 2022 at 5:10 pm
Go away you fake aliis.
Comments are closed.