Poll: Ashley Moody up 7 points in re-election battle with Aramis Ayala
Ashley Moody. Aramis Ayala. Images via Twitter.

Moody Ayala
Survey says AG Moody is re-election favorite.

A new statewide poll gives Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody a strong lead over Democratic challenger Aramis Ayala.

Moody, a former prosecutor and judge from Plant City seeking a second term as AG, is up over Ayala, 41% to 34%, in a newly released Spectrum News/Siena College Poll.

In this survey, Moody dominates most demographics — but not all.

Female voters prefer Ayala, 42% to 36%, with 20% saying they are undecided and 2% saying they won’t vote.

Black voters also overwhelmingly support Ayala, who drew 69% support against just 10% for Moody.

Voters under the age of 50 are also ready for a change in the Attorney General’s office. Ayala is up double digits with voters 18 to 34 years of age, 38% to 27%. Ayala also leads with voters 35 to 49 years of age, 45% to 42%.

And voters in the southeast region of the state also back Ayala, 37% to 32%.

Beyond those subcategories, the polling shows Moody strong elsewhere.

Independent voters prefer Moody, 39% to 23%, with 33% undecided.

Male voters chose Moody over Ayala by nearly a two-to-one margin. Moody drew 46% support against just 24% for Ayala, with the remainder undecided, saying they won’t vote, or saying they backed another candidate.

Moody holds leads over Ayala in Miami-Dade, Tampa, North Florida and Orlando, where Ayala was a one-term State Attorney.

The 12-point Moody lead in Orlando (42% to 30%) is actually Moody’s biggest lead in any region, except for what the crosstabs call “the rest” of the state. Meanwhile, Moody is up by 9 points in her home Tampa region, 45% to 36%.

Moody performs strongest among voters between the ages of 50 and 64, with 58% support against just 35% for Ayala, and only 6% of respondents uncommitted. Moody is also up big with White voters, with 47% backing her compared to just 29% for Ayala.

In addition to polling the election, the popularity of each candidate was polled, and at least among these respondents, neither are well known.

The survey found that 75% of respondents never heard of Moody, who has served nearly four years as the state’s “Top Cop” and has enjoyed national earned media during that period. Ayala is even more anonymous, with 83% of those polled not knowing who she is.

For what it’s worth, Moody’s favorable numbers are slightly above water, with 13% approval against 12% disapproval. Ayala, with 7% approval against 10% disapproval, is technically underwater.

This poll of 669 likely voters was in the field before Hurricane Ian, between Sept. 18 and Sept. 25. Republicans made up 34% of respondents, Democrats 33%, and Independent/Other 28%. The poll had a a 4.5-point margin of error.

As Election Day approaches next month, Moody has resources Ayala won’t be able to match, with more than $5.5 million on hand in her Friends of Ashley Moody political committee, and more than $800,000 available in her campaign account.

Ayala has a little less than $22,000 in her campaign account.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski



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