New poll shows Marco Rubio leading Val Demings 48%-42%
A last-minute surge, and Marco Rubio takes the lead.

Rubio Demings abortion
The poll also shows the incumbent has positive favorability ratings.

U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio holds a substantial lead in his re-election effort over Democrat Val Demings. But even under a month from Election Day, the incumbent remains under a critical 50% mark.

A survey published Friday by Florida Atlantic University’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative shows 48% of registered voters in Florida intend to vote for Rubio in the General Election, while just 42% plan to support Demings. Another 7% remain undecided in the race, enough to swing the contest but only if Demings can accomplish the tall task of attracting almost all of them into her camp.

The same poll shows Gov. Ron DeSantis with a double-digit lead over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, and with majority support. Results also show either DeSantis or former President Donald Trump would beat President Joe Biden in Florida in a presidential contest.

“Republicans continue to perform well in Florida,” said Dr. Kevin Wagner, FAU political science professor and BEPI research fellow. “If these numbers hold, Florida’s status as a battleground state might be in question.”

The poll has a margin of error of 3.65 percentage points, and results from 719 participants were weighed by ethnicity, age, education, party, gender and region based on turnout for the 2020 election, when Trump beat Biden by more than 3 percentage points. The poll also notably based findings on registered voters, as opposed to screening only for likely voters.

Democrats across the board did perform better with younger voters.

The poll curiously found Rubio with higher favorability ratings than his standing in the election. About 51% have a favorable opinion of the incumbent, compared to 41% who view him unfavorably.

By comparison, Demings still remains somewhat unknown even just a few weeks out from the election. She is in positive territory with 43% who view her well and 37% who view her poorly, but that leaves roughly one in five voters with no opinion either way.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • Tom

    October 21, 2022 at 11:28 am

    I’m not a big fan of Joe Biden but Val Demings is top notch. She tore Rubio a new azzhole in the debate. I’ll vote for Val Demings now. Also I just might go ahead and vote for Charlie Crist.

    • jj

      November 4, 2022 at 5:14 am

      you must be nuts demings is corrupt as can be.

  • Tom

    October 21, 2022 at 11:39 am

    Legend Tom here.

    The amount of money spent by Dumings has suppressed Marcos strong overall support.
    He Marco, America’s Senator and the best legislator in Congress will end strong.
    Rising tide lifts all, America’s Gov, America’s Senator. He’s good for 54% on Election Day!

    Florida is the beacon of freedom, liberty and opportunity for all. Not racist Dummycrats equity B. S.

    Biden’s approval in Florida, is now 36% per civiqs. Dumings has no chance! But she, chameleon and Biden can eat ice cream on Nov 1. LMAO, losers!

    • The Real Tom

      October 21, 2022 at 12:54 pm

      👆It’s fake Tom again. Pay no attention to the guy..

      • Tom

        October 21, 2022 at 1:59 pm

        Real Tom legend here.
        Joey corsin is mentally jealous.
        He suffers from deep sexual perversion. His mommy!
        He got Charlie’s campaign manager fired over the fake incest story!
        He joey corsin is a degenerate.

        • The Real Tom

          October 21, 2022 at 2:38 pm

          He Joey Corsin? What in the hell does that mean? He Joey Corsin?

      • Tom

        October 21, 2022 at 1:59 pm

        Real Tom legend here.
        Joey corsin is mentally jealous.
        He suffers from deep sexual perversion. His mommy!
        He got Charlie’s campaign manager fired over the fake incest story!
        He joey corsin is a degenerate.

        • The Real Tom

          October 21, 2022 at 2:39 pm

          Lay off the booze and meth man you littering the thread with double posts that barely make sense. Seek help for Christ sakes.

  • Impeach Biden

    October 21, 2022 at 1:17 pm

    Demings and many others are about to get the wrath of pissed of voters. People are tired of high inflation, fuel prices, and crime. They are tired of our Southern Border being exploited by illegals and the Mexican Cartel. November 8 will be their day of reckoning.

    • Mr. Haney

      October 21, 2022 at 3:21 pm

      You’ll still be an idiot. There is no right to cheap. Republicans have sold the country out to the point that the US is no longer the world’s largest economy while idiots like you think it is. Idiots like you better get used to third world because that is what you are asking for.


      November 2, 2022 at 1:36 am

      Why don’t you people see that the gas prices are not Biden’s fault. Gas is high all over the world. You are talking BS about impeaching Biden.

  • Hope

    October 21, 2022 at 2:54 pm

    The polls have been found to be skewed, drastically, and Marco does have majority support. They are over skewing polls for Democrats so subtract at least 10 points from each Democratic Party candidate and add it to the Republican candidate and that will give you a more reasonable forecast for November 8th.

    • Joe Corsin

      October 21, 2022 at 3:13 pm

      Found to be skewed by who? Mike Lindell?

      • Hope

        October 21, 2022 at 4:57 pm

        Actually just received my dream sheets from Mike and I’m sleeping beautifully. Perhaps you should buy some to relieve some of your anxiety. You should order them ASAP because you’re going to need some stress-relief come November 8th. Sweet dreams!

    • Mr. Haney

      October 21, 2022 at 3:20 pm

      How much meth do you do?

  • marylou

    October 22, 2022 at 5:56 pm

    Here’s what Rubio thinks a 10 year old girl should be forced to risk her life and future for:

    • NoJodas

      October 22, 2022 at 8:11 pm

      Illegal immigrants is on Democrats.

      • marylou

        October 23, 2022 at 4:11 pm

        Republicans refuse to pass immigration legislation. How do Republicans plan to fix the border problems??

        • jj

          November 4, 2022 at 5:18 am

          we have had many plans, from building a wall, as you remember the liberal/democrats/ radicals wanted that ended instantly. along with 100 of other ideas that were brought up, you dip shit democrats dont want the immigration fixed cause that’s your voter base now. You democrats probably hand them a voter card to fill out soon as they cross the border.

  • Paul Gould

    October 24, 2022 at 12:32 pm

    More than half of you in Florida are really effed up. Don’t you look at any news besides Fox News? Have you ever listened to international news and other news stations to see how far off you are? I don’t think any of you have taken American government or a civics class. I am a teacher and I know that they don’t teach civics there. Wake up!! It’s easy to tell that Marco Rubio was ripped to pieces by Val Demings.

    • jj

      November 4, 2022 at 5:19 am

      Not sure what you teach, but your post makes you look like a crackhead. Val Demings is corrupt as can be, you more then likely are a teacher in orange county and a strong liberal as well as being blind as a bat.

  • Thomas Parker

    October 24, 2022 at 1:57 pm

    Sen Rubio showed bad judgment when he went along with the former president Trump’s gas lighting on 2020 election results. He played with fire and should be removed from office by the vote this November. We need moderate leaders loyal to the constitution. Not loyalty to a party or person.

  • Alan Gosiewski

    October 30, 2022 at 4:02 pm

    I could never vote for former officer leaving a WEAPON in her car, and have it stolen. Have you not heard of a TRUNK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Alan Gosiewski

    October 30, 2022 at 5:29 pm

    Mrs. Demings has another possible calling
    after her defeat in 9 DAYS. She will be a prime
    canidate for a role as A ANGRY BLACK WOMEN,
    refering to the ADDS I have seen of her ranting and raving, and her carrying the IMPEACHMENT
    documents in the house chambers. DISPICABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Comments are closed.


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