New poll: Ron DeSantis’ margin of victory widening over Democratic rival

DeSantis Crist
Polling ended one hour after lone gubernatorial debate ended.

A new poll shows Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis winning a second term by a margin of victory that keeps getting wider over the Democratic nominee.

The survey from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Laboratory shows DeSantis getting 55% of the vote, compared to the 41% supporting Charlie Crist.

The UNF poll, rated an A/B by FiveThirtyEight.com, shows DeSantis dominating by more than any poll taken since late September. Other polls, such as Florida Atlantic University’s and Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy had shown him up 11 percentage points earlier in the month.

Beyond the Republican-Democrat voter divide, DeSantis’ strongest source of support appears to be White voters, who prefer him by 33 percentage points over Crist. And voters in the 34- to 44-year-old age group also show a strong preference for him.

“Given DeSantis’ historic fundraising and popularity among Republicans, his lead in this race is not surprising,” said Michael Binder, UNF pollster and professor of political science. “The surprise in these numbers is that a statewide race in Florida is closer to a blowout than a recount.”

With women voters, however, DeSantis’ support is less decisive. Just 50% of women support the Republican incumbent, compared to the 47% who support Crist — a gap that is well within the poll’s margin of error at +/- 4.7 percentage points. The poll shows that 2% of women are undecided.

Those with no party affiliation appear to be breaking in a big way for DeSantis as well — voters in that group prefer DeSantis by 11 percentage points over Crist.

Poll respondents were live-dialed in Spanish and English between the hours of 4:30 p.m. to 9 p.m., Oct. 17 through Monday. That means the 622 random sample of likely voters contacted were unlikely to have digested the single gubernatorial debate that ended at 8 p.m. Monday by the time they were contacted.

Along racial lines, Black voters and “Other” are the only demographics that break decisively for Crist. Just 13% of the Black respondents said they will vote for DeSantis, compared to 78% who answered they would vote for Crist if the election were held today. It’s a margin that mirrors the Republican-Democratic voter divide. Hispanic voters preferred DeSantis over Crist at a level within the poll’s margin of error.

DeSantis’ support is notably stronger (57%) among those with no college degree, compared to those who identified as college-educated. If the election were held on the day they were asked, DeSantis would be the choice of 51% of the college-educated respondents, compared to the 46% voting for Crist.

Dividing voters according to age groups, DeSantis is losing among 18- to 24-year-olds. Sixty-five percent of them said they are voting for Crist, compared to the 18% who said they were voting for DeSantis. The percentage gap between Crist and DeSantis supporters is within the margin of error for 25- to 34-year-olds.

But DeSantis’ support is greatest among his contemporaries. Respondents who are 35 to 44 years old picked him by 36 percentage points over Crist, who garnered just 26% support from this group. Only those who are 65 and older support DeSantis more than this age group. Sixty-four percent of the oldest voters said they were voting for DeSantis.

Anne Geggis

Anne Geggis is a South Florida journalist who began her career in Vermont and has worked at the Sun-Sentinel, the Daytona Beach News-Journal and the Gainesville Sun covering government issues, health and education. She was a member of the Sun-Sentinel team that won the 2019 Pulitzer Prize for coverage of the Parkland high school shooting. You can reach her on Twitter @AnneBoca or by emailing [email protected]


13 comments

  • Impeach Biden

    October 26, 2022 at 6:26 am

    Looks like the “floor fan” didn’t work for “Orange Man” Crist. His face is gettting redder and redder as it reflects the Red Tsunami coming his way. I have my popcorn out and ready to watch the meltdown by Corsin, Offen, Crist and all the other “fake” names he uses.

  • Tom

    October 26, 2022 at 6:29 am

    Real Tom here..
    “DeSantis support is notably stronger among those with no college.” Keep Florida religious and stupid…keep the grift going! Ron DeSantis was humiliated and annihilated in the debate. Now I will be voting for Charlie Crist. I don’t want to be one of the stupids.

    • Impeach Biden

      October 26, 2022 at 6:43 am

      Yes the Offen, Corsin, Crist, and fake Tom writer is spinning out of control. It’s coming fake Tom. November 8 will be a glorious day. By the way I am a college graduate.🤣

      • Tom

        October 26, 2022 at 7:39 am

        Well your education was most likely incomplete. In other words, you just didn’t catch something. That or you just see opportunities to grift stupid people so you’ve sided with a far right party of crooks.

      • Tom

        October 26, 2022 at 8:19 am

        Thanks Impeach.

        Legend Tom here.
        This despicable pig, Joey corsin is such a loser, he cannot stand on his own feet. He is a complete incompetent.

        Joey and Elliot rail bout uneducated, his president has allowed millions of uneducated in illegally. Good going.

        News for all the Dums, and media leftists. DeSantis is likely to top 55% in vote percentage. All your efforts have failed, and backfired. Chameleon is the worst candidate next to Nikki Fraud. Dumings has no chance.

        Rubio and Gov will bring a such a turnout percentage of support, it will bring a clean sweep below. Enjoy!

        • The REAL Tom

          October 26, 2022 at 8:29 am

          Governor of Florida he might win but presidency he will not win because he’s too far right. We know this thanks to people like CHARLIE calling out his nonsense in front of millions. Trounced, pounced, and bounced DeSantis during the debate. Won the debate.

          • Tom

            October 26, 2022 at 8:59 am

            Joey, Only in your corrupt and decrepit mind. You are so out of touch with reality, no one knows what you say. You have driven all the Dum Dems away from FP. Good going, they loved debating legend Tom.

          • Tom

            October 26, 2022 at 8:59 am

            Joey, Only in your corrupt and decrepit mind. You are so out of touch with reality, no one knows what you say. You have driven all the Dum Dems away from FP. Good going, they loved debating legend Tom.

  • David In Shoreline

    October 26, 2022 at 9:29 am

    Crist who? Is he the has-been who is so desperate for power that he’s switched parties six times? No thanks. I prefer the prosperity and stability brought by Governor DeSantis.

  • Midniteangel

    October 26, 2022 at 12:05 pm

    Anyone voting Crust doesn’t know anything about him or politics. Anyone voting dem wants socialism. They must be mentally ill.

  • the Best Tom

    October 26, 2022 at 9:09 pm

    florida is awesome. dont let some foofee libs come and ruin it with their tears and screams.

  • sunshine

    October 27, 2022 at 10:58 am

    My 19 year old son is voting for Desatis and who are my teenager nieces and nephews. They have been educated better.

  • eva

    October 27, 2022 at 5:07 pm

    I am already making an additional $43K suitable or more every month from home by performing genuinely uncomplicated and truthful tasks online. I really brought home $35K (amv-88) in income last month, which isn’t necessarily inheritable. Join up on this hobby right away to start increasing your online earnings by learning how to use the tools provided.

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Comments are closed.


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