Republicans now outnumber Democrats in battleground Senate District 10

Jason Brodeur receives good news from book closing.

Outsized success in voter registration for Florida Republicans has changed the balance in the makeup of a key Senate district. As of the Oct. 11 deadline for voters to register in order to participate in the Nov. 8 election, more Republicans now live in Senate District 10 than Democrats.

A book closing report from the state shows 133,173 registered Republicans in SD 10. That compares to 132,446 registered Democrats, a difference of 727 voters. That’s a miniscule margin in a district with 389,565 voters in all, but also marks a turnaround for Republicans at a critical moment.

Sen. Jason Brodeur, a Sanford Republican, faces a spirited challenge to his re-election from Democratic Rep. Joy Goff-Marcil. He has maintained a significant cash advantage in the race, and had more than $540,000 to deploy in the final month of the campaign. Goff-Marcil, meanwhile, was down to five figures.

But Senate Victory, the Florida Democratic Party’s Senate arm, has also made flipping the district blue a priority. That includes bringing a bus tour through the district in a get-out-the-vote effort, with leaders promising to focus on many communities Brodeur did not represent before redistricting.

Brodeur also has been dogged by a still unfolding “ghost candidate” scandal that led to charges filed against people close to him.

But one big strike against Brodeur’s chances seems to have been erased.

Even in early October, the state reported Democrats had a registration advantage, according to L2 voter data. Prior to book closing, there were 130,384 registered Democrats and 128,929 registered Republicans.

Since the last report, Democrats netted another 2,062 registered voters, but Republicans netted 4,244.

Now Republicans make up 34.19% of voters in SD 10 and Democrats account for 34%. The 116,106 no-party voters make up another 29.8% of the electorate, while minor parties boast 7,840 voters, or 2.01%.

It’s still a district that in 2020 performed better for Democrats than Brodeur’s old Senate District 9. About 51.5% of voters under the new SD 10 lines went for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, compared to 47.06% who backed Republican Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, Biden won the old SD 9 by 49.36% to Trump’s 49.24%. Notably, Brodeur still won a majority of votes in the old SD 9 the same day, taking 50.3% and winning his spot in the Senate.

That was all two years ago, though, and Republicans have enjoyed massive registration success, surpassing Democratic voters in Florida for the first time in state history.