Republicans now outnumber Democrats in battleground Senate District 10
Jason Brodeur receives good news from book closing.

That's good news for Jason Brodeur's re-election effort.

Outsized success in voter registration for Florida Republicans has changed the balance in the makeup of a key Senate district. As of the Oct. 11 deadline for voters to register in order to participate in the Nov. 8 election, more Republicans now live in Senate District 10 than Democrats.

A book closing report from the state shows 133,173 registered Republicans in SD 10. That compares to 132,446 registered Democrats, a difference of 727 voters. That’s a miniscule margin in a district with 389,565 voters in all, but also marks a turnaround for Republicans at a critical moment.

Sen. Jason Brodeur, a Sanford Republican, faces a spirited challenge to his re-election from Democratic Rep. Joy Goff-Marcil. He has maintained a significant cash advantage in the race, and had more than $540,000 to deploy in the final month of the campaign. Goff-Marcil, meanwhile, was down to five figures.

But Senate Victory, the Florida Democratic Party’s Senate arm, has also made flipping the district blue a priority. That includes bringing a bus tour through the district in a get-out-the-vote effort, with leaders promising to focus on many communities Brodeur did not represent before redistricting.

Brodeur also has been dogged by a still unfolding “ghost candidate” scandal that led to charges filed against people close to him.

But one big strike against Brodeur’s chances seems to have been erased.

Even in early October, the state reported Democrats had a registration advantage, according to L2 voter data. Prior to book closing, there were 130,384 registered Democrats and 128,929 registered Republicans.

Since the last report, Democrats netted another 2,062 registered voters, but Republicans netted 4,244.

Now Republicans make up 34.19% of voters in SD 10 and Democrats account for 34%. The 116,106 no-party voters make up another 29.8% of the electorate, while minor parties boast 7,840 voters, or 2.01%.

It’s still a district that in 2020 performed better for Democrats than Brodeur’s old Senate District 9. About 51.5% of voters under the new SD 10 lines went for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, compared to 47.06% who backed Republican Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, Biden won the old SD 9 by 49.36% to Trump’s 49.24%. Notably, Brodeur still won a majority of votes in the old SD 9 the same day, taking 50.3% and winning his spot in the Senate.

That was all two years ago, though, and Republicans have enjoyed massive registration success, surpassing Democratic voters in Florida for the first time in state history.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • Phil Morton

    October 28, 2022 at 5:50 am

    Bring some Joy to SD 10. No more Republicans, anywhere.

    • Impeach Biden

      October 28, 2022 at 8:14 am

      So what is the Democrat message here?

      What can you point to that has been successful since Jan 2021?

      Crime, inflation, gas prices, Southern Border chaos, Ukraine. I’m all ears.

      • The Real Tom

        October 28, 2022 at 8:31 am

        Trump inspired Ashli Babbitt to become a better person, get a degree, and become a seasoned professional in a highly respected field. Vote for him in 2024 if you agree. Other than that, sorry Dems can’t clean up GOP messes fast enough. Shame on them for not quelling American Capitalist melee while simultaneously dealing with opposition party full of obstuctionists and saboteurs of government. Good news is there’s always an opposition party to vote for.

        • Impeach Biden

          October 28, 2022 at 9:55 am

          Fake Tom. You are completely full of it and I will be laughing my azz off here on November 9.

  • DemocracyDOWN - Pulling Wool

    November 2, 2022 at 1:31 am

    Clearly this piece’s author (& FP’s editors) are going right along with a downfall: An extra 700 voters out of nearly half a million? An “outsized” success!? Both parties about 34% of SD10’s pop!! And how much of the district would vote for Broduer’s utterly NAUSEATING complicity in the SICK ghost candidate SCANDAL?!!! If a pile of money from a wealth dripping & sinisterly over powerful machine party buying up of cutesy pretty commercials –amidst the horrific Gaetz teen sex insanity– makes everyone forget, then yes, this cherished nation & it’s beacon of precious democracy is being destroyed. Thanks for this machine affirming article & website, may God on high awaken us.

Comments are closed.


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