Will Fred Hawkins win re-election in Democratic-leaning HD 35 over Rishi Bagga?
Does Republican Fred Hawkins have enough juice to win a light blue district?

hawkins bagga
The race could test the strength of incumbency and a red wave year.

Redistricting left Republican Rep. Fred Hawkins in a district won by Democrat Joe Biden in the last Presidential Election. But could the power of incumbency and a red wave help him overcome a challenge from Rishi Bagga?

Hawkins seeks a second term, running in House District 35. The former Osceola County Commissioner, who served on the local government body from 2008 to 2020, feels good about his time in the Legislature.

“I’m hoping voters stay the course, stay focused on keeping Florida’s economy and their lives free and support policies that will make Florida more affordable,” Hawkins said.

He has focused on family and education issues during his time in office, including sponsoring legislation requiring CPR training for high school students and providing free books to elementary school-age children struggling with reading. Speaker Chris Sprowls appointed Hawkins to serve on the Task Force on Closing the Achievement Gap for Boys, a priority of the House leader. And he has also made agriculture a priority as a lawmaker.

As for Bagga, the lawyer hopes to become the first Indian American elected to the Legislature in state history. He grew up in Orange County, the son of immigrants who purchased a 26-room motel in the state that Bagga called home until he was 17. He later graduated from the University of Central Florida and became a prosecutor.

“I think all of these are great experiences that I will bring to this position, and I’m very thankful again to have the opportunity,” Bagga said.

He has offered criticism of the Republican-controlled Legislature as a whole, specifically for failing to address problems like Florida’s insurance crisis and instead focusing on divisive policies. But he’s versed in some of the minutiae, for example slamming the Legislature at a recent Tiger Bay for boasting it hadn’t raided an affordable housing trust for one year while letting a rent crisis boil for over a decade.

Like many of Central Florida’s battleground districts, the race has seen plenty of negative attacks fly into mailboxes and onto airwaves. With Bagga opposed to term limits, Hawkins’ campaign issued a mailer with an aged photo of the Democrat and accused him of wanting politicians to serve for life. Bagga meanwhile has accused Hawkins of being the career politician in the race.

The HD 35 contest is one of several that could test the strength of a red wave and the power of incumbency. Hawkins enjoys a substantial cash lead, one Bagga has had to counter in part by putting $18,000 in candidate loans into the race.

But Democrats theoretically should hold a demographic edge in the contest. Some 51.8% of voters in the district under the new lines supported Biden in 2020, while just 46.8% backed Republican Donald Trump.

As of Oct. 11 book closings for the General Election, the district served as home to 40,646 registered Democrats and 37,534 Republicans, though no-party voters outnumbered either partisan group with 40,746 on the book.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].



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