Staff Reports
Good Sunday morning and welcome back to “Brunch,” a pop-up newsletter about the 2022 campaign cycle in Florida, as well as other important information about Florida politics.
We’re at Fox Leah Farms in Southwest Florida for a horse show. It’s the first time we’ve been in the region since Hurricane Ian devastated the area. It doesn’t take long to realize that, no matter how strong the response is to what happened, this community will be digging out for years.
Be sure to check out this week’s picks for the Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics (please click here).
Happy birthday to Josh Gabel, Chief Inspector General Melinda Miguel, former House Democratic Leader Ron Saunders of Key West, and to Tyler Winik, Director of Government & Public Affairs at the Office of Brevard Clerk of the Circuit Court & Comptroller.
Tomorrow is the last day of the tax holiday that allows motorists to fill up their tanks without paying the state’s 25.3-cent-a-gallon gasoline tax.
Now, here’s Brunch.
— Voters are voting —
Early votes and mail ballots keep pouring in. Here is a rundown of ballot returns as of 6 p.m. Saturday.
— Vote-by-mail: Just over 1.8 million mail ballots have completed the round trip. Democrats are leading in mail ballots with 774,387 returns to the GOP’s 674,916. Third- and no-party voters account for another 355,176 votes.
— Early voting: Republicans keep growing their lead in early in-person voting, with 352,967 votes logged compared to 191,127 for Democrats. An added 109,751 third- and no-party voters cast a ballot during early voting.
— Totals: Republicans took the lead in overall votes Thursday, and they haven’t let up. Heading into Sunday, 1,027,883 registered Republicans had turned out compared to 965,514 Democrats — a gap of 62,369 votes.
— DeSantis in Tampa on Election Night —
Gov. Ron DeSantis will watch the results come in at the Tampa Bay Convention Center on Nov. 8.
— The event will likely turn into a victory party, as polls show DeSantis up by double digits over challenger Charlie Crist; the only question is how long after 7 p.m. Central will it take to pop the cork.
— By the way, while it’s an easy stumble from the convention center to the JW Marriott Tampa, we’re told the entire hotel is already booked. You may have to stay at the sorta-decent Embassy Suites nearby.
Of course, if price is no concern, the penthouse at The Edition is still available for $12K!
— Biden in FL —
President Joe Biden will rally with Democrats in Miami Gardens Tuesday, one week before Election Day, to highlight the choice voters face this election.
— Celeb power: Emmy and Peabody award-winning actor Keegan Michael Key will be on hand to help push the message. The Comedy Central sketch show “Key & Peele” star famously appeared at the 2015 White House Correspondents’ Dinner as then-President Barack Obama’s “anger translator.”
— Top-of-ticket Dems: Gubernatorial candidate Crist and U.S. Senate candidate Val Demings will also be on hand as they both face underdog races against Republican incumbents.
— Top issues: Expect speakers to lean into top-campaign issues such as abortion access and protecting democracy.
Doors open at 4 p.m. The rally will be held at Florida Memorial University located at 15800 NW 42nd Ave. in Miami Gardens. Election Day is Nov. 8.
— Florida Dems call on Obama —
Former President Barack Obama will be reaching the phones of millions of Floridians this week in a robocall to promote Florida Democrats ahead of the Midterms.
— What? In the call, Obama relays to voters of the importance of this year’s election, urging Floridians to support Democrats up and down the ballot.
— Hammering the issues. Obama hits on some of the key Democratic platforms for midterms, including abortion rights — an issue Democrats have homed in on since the overturn of Roe v. Wade in June. “Don’t sit this one out, because everything we care about is on the ballot,” he says.
— Will it be enough? The pre-recorded call comes as Floridians head to the polls during early voting. On Thursday morning, Republicans overtook Democrats in the polls, and the GOP has kept its lead since.
— Harder to vote —
Florida ranks 33rd in the nation for voting access, according to the Election Law Journal’s 2022 Cost of Voting Index. It’s gotten more difficult to vote in the Sunshine State since 2020.
— A big drop: Florida dropped five spots in the ranking since 2020, even as some states made it easier to vote amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
— Voter fraud: Republicans nationwide have sounded the alarm about potential voter fraud, despite evidence that such fraud is not significant. DeSantis signed into law last year new limits on who can collect and drop off ballots, making it more difficult to return mail ballots.
— Other restrictions: DeSantis and the Republican Legislature also enacted tightened restrictions on nongovernment groups’ voter registration drives and created a new state law enforcement agency to investigate voter fraud.
— Some expansion: DeSantis did sign an executive order this month extending early voting and vote-by-mail access through Election Day in three counties affected by Hurricane Ian, where voting is expected to be affected due to hardship.
— It could be worse: The report found New Hampshire ranked last for voting ease, followed by Mississippi, Arkansas and Wisconsin.
— But it could be better: Oregon ranks as the easiest state from which to vote. The state has automatic voter registration and all-mail voting.
The report concluded that Florida’s new law enforcement arm dealing with voter fraud “may lead to election interference and voter intimidation.
— Souls to the Polls —
Faith in Florida has kicked off its Souls to the Polls events and will continue getting individuals to polling places throughout the state until Election Day.
— Underrepresented communities: The group is targeting get-out-the-vote efforts in Black and Brown communities where critical races are on the ballot. In a news release, Faith in Florida claims those communities are “often ignored by candidate campaigns, and thus their voices go unheard.”
— It’s already started: Souls to the Polls events began last Saturday, Oct. 22 with events in Port St. Joe and Apalachicola and on Sunday, Oct. 23 in Chipley. On Wednesday, an event occurred in Miami Gardens and, yesterday, voters were mobilized in Largo and Opa-locka.
— Location, location, location: Voters can catch a ride to the polls today in Vero Beach, Ocala, Plant City, Riviera Beach, Fort Pierce, New Port Richey, Jacksonville, Hallandale Beach, Panama City, Mary Esther, Hobe Sound, Delray Beach and Miami.
— A lot of outreach: In 2018, the last Midterm Election, Faith in Florida organized more than 800 houses of worship in its “Let My People Vote” campaign, when they educated voters on Amendment 4 and helped 1.5 million returning citizens get their rights restored under the new law.
— And lots more to go: The event ends on Election Day, Nov. 8, with two events — one at Williams Park in St. Petersburg and another at New Generation Missionary Baptist Church in Opa-locka.
Faith in Florida is an organization that promotes people, power and change, bringing people of faith together in a unified voice for racial, economic, environmental and social justice through a network of congregations in South, Central and North Florida. The group includes more than 800 congregations in more than 35 counties, representing 160,000 families. More information on Souls to the Polls events can be found on their website.
— TV buys —
There are only nine days left until Election Day, and campaigns are throwing the last of their ad budgets onto the small screen to sway the few remaining undecided voters. Here’s a rundown of the ads that will show up on TV this week.
— Governor: Crist’s campaign dropped another $40K on broadcast ads. According to AdImpact, the flight will run Tuesday through Monday. It directs $35K to the Tallahassee media market and $5K to the Ft. Myers media market.
— CD 23: Democratic nominee Jared Moskowitz booked $29K in ad time for his campaign in Florida’s 23rd Congressional District. The buy will run on broadcast starting on Halloween and continuing through Nov. 6 in the Miami media market. Moskowitz faces Republican Joe Budd in the General Election for the South Florida seat.
— Rubio releases closing ad —
Republican incumbent Rubio takes aim at Democrats in a new ad, which will close the ad cycle a week out from the General Election.
— Taking aim: The ad targets Democratic control in Washington, arguing that “everything has gotten worse” in the two years since Dems took the lead.
— Economy: Rubio slams Democrats for the global inflation crisis, saying “Instead of growing jobs, they grow inflation and debt.” He also criticizes energy policy, saying “they beg our enemies for oil, and they make you pay at the pump.”
— Immigration: Rubio also hits on the border, saying “instead of enforcing our laws, they let illegal aliens and drugs flood across our borders.”
— Bringing it back: The ad ties it back to Rubio’s Democratic opponent, Val Demings, saying she “supported all of this” by “voting with Pelosi 100%.”
— The ad comes as polling shows Rubio leading Demings, including a recent poll finding a double-digit lead.
To watch the ad, please click on the image below:
— Poll: Lynn, Luna locked in tie —
Candidates for Florida’s 13th Congressional District are locked in a dead heat, according to the latest survey results from St. Pete Polls.
— The two are separated by less than 1 percentage point, with Republican Anna Paulina Luna posting 45.9% support to Democrat Eric Lynn’s 45.3% support. Nearly 9% of those polled are still undecided.
— Cross-party appeal: Lynn is drawing more cross-party support than his opponent. Only 7% of Democrats said they planned to vote for Luna, while 16% of Republicans said they would vote for Lynn.
— Good news for Lynn: More Lynn supporters (56%) have already voted than Luna’s (39%), which means her campaign will need to ensure those who haven’t already cast a ballot do so by Election Day.
— Undecided. More than 12% of those polled who are still undecided have yet to vote.
— Details: The St. Pete Polls survey was taken Oct. 26-27 among 509 likely CD 13 General Election voters. It has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
The candidates are running to replace Crist, who left office amid a bid for Governor.
— Hometown hero —
Democratic Sen. Janet Cruz is facing Republican Jay Collins in her re-election campaign for Senate District 14, which is perhaps the most competitive state Senate contest of the cycle. But she’s getting some backup.
— Tampa Mayor Jane Castor is the star of a new campaign ad highlighting Cruz’s values and record serving Tampa residents in the Legislature.
— Castor’s pitch: “I’ve known Janet Cruz for over 20 years, so I know how much Tampa means to Janet. Improving the lives of every Tampa resident is what drives her. For Janet, it’s not about politics — it’s about people. It’s about making Tampa more affordable, making our neighborhoods and schools safe and free from crime, and making sure everyone has access to the opportunities they deserve.”
— The fundraising call: The ad dropped in an email asking supporters to chip in what they can to help Cruz defeat Collins, whom she calls “an opponent whose views simply do not represent the people of our community.”
— Cruz had raised big. According to the latest available finance reports, Cruz has topped $2 million raised between her campaign and political committee since she last appeared on the ballot four years ago. Collins has reeled in about $700,000, though he has more in the tank and a DeSantis endorsement to boot.
Like Cruz’s current district, the new SD 14 is as purple as it gets, and the result could easily come down to a handful of votes. Cruz has prevailed in close contests before, however, squeaking by former GOP Sen. Dana Young by just a few hundred votes.
— Retraction or overreaction? —
The Hispanic Vote of Palm Beach County is asking that TV stations stop running an ad supporting Republican House candidate Peggy Gossett-Seidman and attacking her Democratic rival for House District 91 — or at least take the group’s name out of it.
— Radical claim: The ad, in rotation for the last week in Palm Beach County’s TV stations and paid for by the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee (FHRCC), has a frame that says that Democrat Andy Thomson “backed open border radicals.” And the fine print says, “Source: Thomson Endorsements, Hispanic Vote, Accessed 10/15/22.” Technically, The Hispanic Vote of Palm Beach County endorsed Thomson over Gossett-Seidman. But the group’s leader is protesting that the ad misrepresents the political action committee’s position on immigration. They explicitly don’t want open borders. And for the upcoming election, The Hispanic Vote endorsed 19 candidates — 10 Republicans and nine Democrats.
— To watch the ad, please click on the image below:
— ‘Racist dog whistle’: “Hispanic Vote Palm Beach County is a group of business and community leaders who support legal immigration,” said Jorge Garrido, CEO of The Hispanic Vote Palm Beach County. “Calling us ‘open border radicals’ because of our ethnicity is just another racist dog whistle being perpetrated by her campaign. Shame on Peggy.” Garrido said he wants the ad taken down and a public apology from Gossett-Seidman’s campaign. He’s been getting phone calls about the misrepresentation, he said.
— No clarity: FHRCC staffers, when questioned, did not provide a reason for why The Hispanic Vote of Palm Beach County was characterized as a group of “open border radicals.”
— Mistake? House Republican Rep. Rick Roth, who is among those The Hispanic Vote endorsed for re-election, said he thinks The Hispanic Vote is upset about seeing its chosen candidate attacked like this. “I think the issue was to link the Democrat (Andy Thomson) to pro-open border national Democrats,” said Roth, whose bid to represent House District 94 for a fourth term won The Hispanic Vote’s endorsement over Democrat Terence Davis’ challenge. Roth, who is part of the FHRCC’s leadership, said he could not understand why the consultant who put the ad together put The Hispanic Vote as a source, however. It might have been a mistake, he said.
Gossett-Seidman’s campaign noted that The Hispanic Voice’s Twitter account had tweets that could be construed as an open border agenda. Garrido, however, did not know about the Twitter account. Its most recent activity goes back to 2012.
— Birthday for a cause —
Former Florida Secretary of Commerce Jamal Sowell celebrated his 40th birthday by giving back. The now-president of Indelible’s Business Solutions division reportedly raised nearly $10,000 for the Boys & Girls Clubbing Pine Hills, with donations still rolling in.
— Giving back: Sowell is an alum of the Boys & Girls Club of Central Florida and credits the program for providing experience and lessons that allowed him to become a Pat Tillman Scholar, a Unified States Marine Corps Captain and Florida’s Secretary of Commerce.
— What he’s saying: “The Boys & Girls Club was a safe harbor that nurtured my interest and talents. It was a haven for me to explore my interests in a safe environment. At this stage in my life, it was important to me that I return the investment the community made in me.”
— ‘Indelible’ contribution: Sowell’s company, Indelible, which is one of the nation’s fastest-growing management consulting firms, sponsored the event, allowing 100% of proceeds raised to go toward the Boys & Girls Club. Sowell oversees the firm’s tax and audit, risk management, regulatory compliance and strategic development consultancy portfolio.
— An ‘indispensable asset’: That’s how Indelible CEO Joshua Hay described Sowell and the reason they were “honored” to sponsor the event allowing him to give back. The company hopes “to continue supporting initiatives such as this.”
Boys & Girls Clubs of America’s mission is to enable all young people, especially those who need them most, to reach their full potential as productive, caring, responsible citizens. Of the club’s teen participants, 97% expect to graduate from high school and 88% expect to complete some form of post-secondary education.
— Down the whale —
Population estimates for North Atlantic right whales declined again this year, according to the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, to around 340. A slowing of the right whales’ decline isn’t enough, though, to take away from the fact the species is on a quick route to extinction.
— Basic math: More whales are dying every year from fishing gear entanglements and ship strikes than are being born. Scientists believe every North Atlantic right whale death the past 50 years is human-caused — none are dying naturally, and the species has no predator. Pushback is ongoing regarding federal measures to provide safe waters for the whales.
— Lost progress: Gains made in population recovery before the whales’ “unusual mortality event” began in 2017 are gone, with numbers approximating what they were in 2001. “In the ensuing decade, the population increased by 150 whales; that tells us this species can recover if we stop injuring and killing them,” said Philip Hamilton, senior scientist at the New England Aquarium.
— It gets worse: A new study detailed that there are fewer female right whales that are even capable of successfully reproducing. “The evidence that females are not maturing to have calves is very disturbing, and the current trajectory for breeding females is shocking,” said Peter Corkeron, senior scientist at the New England Aquarium’s Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life. “But there is an important ray of hope in this analysis. If we can eliminate entanglements, then there’s a good chance that the cohort of females who haven’t started calving yet will do so.”
— Bucs bust —
If you want to know why the Bucs are struggling at 3-5 midway through the season, well …. let’s ask Rex Ryan.
— Ryan’s reaction: He’s the former New York Jets and Buffalo Bills coach who now does commentary for ESPN. “This team is old and slow,” Ryan said. “You talk about unwatchable on offense — they are unwatchable on offense.” By the way, that’s before the Bucs were gashed for 231 yards on the ground by the Ravens — 204 of that came in the second half when they played keep-away in an eventual 27-22 win.
— Just the facts, please: Ryan wasn’t just shooting off at the mouth. He used statistical evidence to make his case. The Bucs’ offense ranks 31st in the NFL in average top team speed, ahead of only the Indianapolis Colts. And their average team age of 27.1 makes them the oldest team in the league. Of course, the age number might be skewed a bit by 45-year-old Tom Brady. But the longer a player is in the league, the more likely they are to get hurt, and the Bucs have had a ton of injuries starting in the middle of last season and continuing this year.
— Another blow to the defense: The Bucs lost another key defensive player when linebacker Shaq Barrett injured his Achilles tendon against the Ravens. He will undergo surgery and miss up to nine months. Barrett turns 30 on November 17. If the Bucs continue to struggle and miss the playoffs, it could trigger a rebuild and a roster purge. Either way, we’re probably seeing the final games of Brady’s unmatched career.
— Brady’s frustration grows: Brady’s well-publicized personal life came into focus again on the morning after the Baltimore game. He announced that his long-rumored divorce from supermodel Gisele Bündchen was final. He also has uncharacteristically struggled on the field. The current three-game losing streak is his longest in 20 years. And with rumors of a possible shake-up in the coaching staff beginning to surface, there is little time to right the ship. Oh, and the Bucs’ next game is Nov. 6 against the defending Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams.
— Underdog repeat? —
Major League Baseball is a marathon. Until it isn’t, that is. Baseball purists pride themselves on how the 162-game regular season produces teams worthy of a championship. But last year, the Atlanta Braves proved all that matters is being hot at the right time. It’s the same way this year.
— Phillies on fire: The World Series is underway, and the Philadelphia Phillies hold one of the two spots. Last year, the Braves won 88 games (compared to 107 for San Francisco and 106 for the Dodgers and Astros). But Atlanta rode hot pitching to knock out the Dodgers in the playoffs and the Astros in the World Series. At least Atlanta won its division. That’s more than we can say for the Phillies this year.
— Let ‘em all in: MLB expanded the playoffs this season to 12 teams, and we might as well get used to that. That’s how the Phillies, who finished 14 games behind the Mets in the National League East with 87 wins, made it to the postseason party. Is that bad? Maybe it is to those who believe it’s their responsibility to keep the purity of baseball alive, but there’s no doubt it created extra excitement. If the Phillies win, will it cheapen the World Series? Some would say yes, but baseball’s postseason has become a demolition derby that is must-watch TV.
— Goodbye Dodgers and Yankees: The 111-win Dodgers didn’t survive their first-round series, falling to the Padres (who then lost to the Phillies). The Yankees (99 wins) went meekly in the American League Championship Series, falling in four straight to the Astros. Would America have preferred to watch Yankees slugger Aaron Judge battle Dodger pitching in the Series? Maybe. But the unpredictability of baseball’s postseason is what makes it compelling.
— Now it’s a sprint: The bromide that binds in baseball is that the season is a marathon, not a sprint. But the postseason is a sprint, and one or two bad games can wreck a full season’s worth of work. Too bad. As The New York Times noted, the early-round playoff chaos means the system is working.
— Brunching Out —
Tally Fish House & Oyster Bar, a family restaurant owned by Chip and Amanda Evans, combines a friendly atmosphere with good service, fresh fish, a full bar and weekly specials: whole Maine lobsters on Mondays, Oyster Tuesdays, Kids Eat Free on Wednesdays, All You Can Eat Shrimp and $8 martinis on Thursdays and live music on Friday nights. Brunch, with bottomless mimosas and bloody marys for $15 (with the purchase of an adult entree), is available on Saturdays and Sundays.
— Setting: The nautical-themed fish house has the bonus of both a private dining room and a covered outdoor patio, especially appealing now that it’s fall. There’s live music on the weekends and on Sunday morning, talented acoustic guitarist Kade Williamson started our day off on the right note.
— The menu: Fish and seafood are featured in several dishes such as shrimp and grits, blackened grouper and grits, shrimp breakfast burrito, shrimp and crab omelet, and my choice, the Fried Green Tomato and Crab Cake Benedict on a biscuit. The green tomato was juicy and crisp and the crab cakes were nicely done, and well-seasoned. We also ordered The Captain’s Breakfast, which is a generous plate of three eggs, several slices of bacon or Azur sausage, biscuits, sausage gravy and cheese grits. Among other choices: French toast, chicken and waffles, chicken and biscuits and waffles and whipped cream. You can also order off the dinner menu.
— Details: Tally Fish House & Oyster Bar, 6800 Thomasville Rd.; 850-900-5075. Hours: Brunch from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Saturday, with regular hours until 10 p.m., and 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Sunday, with regular hours to 9 p.m. Open from 11 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday, 11 a.m. to 10 p.m. Tuesday to Friday.
