Betting market bullish on Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis victories
At this point, both Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio are on solid footing.

But a true believer Democrat could make a lot of dough in the event of an upset.

What are the chances of an upset on Election Day in Florida’s big races?

The betting markets show few people willing to bet on a Val Demings or Charlie Crist upset.

A glance at PredictIt, where people place real money on election outcomes, shows little confidence Florida will deliver any Election Day surprises this Midterm cycle.

As of 8 p.m. on Nov. 7, the eve of the Midterm Election, the price of a “yes” share on Republican Sen. Marco Rubio winning re-election sat at 96 cents. That’s as high as the price has been over the 90 days leading into the Midterms. Meanwhile, Demings “Yes” shares were priced at a low 3 cents.

That’s as certain as the market has been, but there never seemed to be much confidence that Demings would pull a stunner.

On Aug. 28, about a week after Demings won the Democratic nomination, Rubio’s “yes” shares were available for as low as 83 cents. Meanwhile, Demings shares rose to 18 cents twice in that period, on Sept. 1 and 5.

In the Governor’s race, “yes” shares for Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis sat at 96 cents, down from the three-month high of 97 cents on Sunday. But “yes” shares for Crist dipped to a new all-time low of 3 cents.

The highest a Crist share ever ran in the market was 16 cents, a zenith reached on Sept. 2. The lowest DeSantis shares ever traded was 83 cents: a price set on Aug. 31, Sept. 1 and 5.

Overall, there’s a growing sense among those placing bets that Republicans will have a good night across the country. Those who want “yes” shares for the Republicans taking over the Senate climbed to 71 cents, down from 76 cents on Nov. 3 but still showing a takeover as the safe bet.

“Yes” shares for Democrats keeping a majority in the upper chamber climbed to 35 cents from 30 cents on Nov. 5.

The U.S. Senate control market has been more volatile than the ticket toppers in Florida. As recently as Oct. 15, a “yes” share for Democratic keeping the Senate traded higher than a “yes” vote for Republicans winning a majority. And before Oct. 12, pro-Democratic control shares were consistently trading higher.

The same cannot be said about control of the U.S. House.

That market, a day before Election Day, has “yes” shares for a Republican takeover sitting at 90 cents, while similar shares of Democrats keeping the chamber closed at 12 cents.

The market high on a GOP majority came just on Nov. 4, when “yes” shares were at 91 cents. But the most bullish market for Democrats in the last 90 days was on Sept. 3; then, “yes” shares only traded for 30 cents.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • Real Tom Legend

    November 8, 2022 at 7:03 am

    Vote for Val Demings!!!

  • babar cheema

    November 15, 2022 at 12:05 am

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Comments are closed.


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