Florida Democrats’ voter turnout, or lack thereof, point to a ‘red tsunami’ for Florida GOP
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Dead donkey
It's hard to see any way out of this pit.

Ongoing analysis of voter turnout throughout the state shows more bad news for Democrats, as turnout in many blue counties favors GOP voters or shows a GOP over-performance in others. 

As I previously wrote, turnout in the blue counties of Hillsborough and Miami-Dade is favoring the GOP. In deep blue Leon County, Republicans are over-performing at the polls, relative to their registration disadvantage. And in Pinellas County, the state’s biggest swing county, Republicans are delivering a walloping. 

The trends don’t stop there. Most of the bad news, as expected, is coming from South Florida where, in addition to Miami-Dade, GOP ballots are exceeding Democrats’ in St. Lucie County and are closing gaps in Palm Beach and Broward Counties. 

St. Lucie

In St. Lucie, Democrats, as in much of the state, led vote-by-mail, with about 5,000 more ballots submitted than Republicans. But the GOP made that deficit up, plus about 2,000 votes during early voting, and, as of lunchtime, led Election Day turnout by more than 5,000 votes. That despite Democrats carrying a more than 9,000 voter advantage in the county, according to the most recent L2 voter data. 

Democrats have what appears to be a strong turnout advantage in Palm Beach and Broward Counties, both deep blue. But when considering turnout in relation to voter registrations, the outlook isn’t so rosy. 

Broward

In Broward, Democrats nearly double GOP voters, with 597,454 voters to 266,053 Republican voters, according to the most recent book-closing reports from the state.

Democratic registrations account for 48% of the county’s electorate, compared to just 21% for Republicans. Overall turnout shows Democrats casting half of the total ballots so far, with Republicans accounting for 27% of votes so far. While that is trending about 2 percentage points behind Republicans’ registration disadvantage, the GOP is gaining ground on Election Day, with nearly 4,000 more votes cast so far. 

The Broward numbers aren’t necessarily damning for Democrats the same way they are in Hillsborough County, where Republicans actually lead turnout. But South Florida polls have shown a consistent red shift, particularly in neighboring Miami-Dade. That means even if Democrats maintain the status quo in their most reliably blue county, GOP gains elsewhere may render its liberal electorate useless in statewide contests.

Palm Beach

It’s worse in Palm Beach County, where Democrats hold about an 11-percentage-point advantage in voter registration over Republicans. Yet turnout is only favoring Democrats by about 6 percentage points so far, with the 41% of the ballots cast so far coming from registered Democrats and 35% from Republicans. And GOP voters are bridging that gap quickly on Election Day. As of lunchtime, Republican turnout exceeded Democratic by about 20,000 votes. 

Central Florida

Jog over to Central Florida, and the story is much the same. It’s difficult to analyze turnout trends in Orange County, Central Florida’s most populous county, because its Supervisor of Elections office does not post Election Day turnout by party affiliation. But, GOP voters have out-performed their voter registration in vote-by-mail and early voting.

Of those votes, Democrats have returned 46% of the total ballots, while the GOP returned 33%, a 13-percentage-point difference. Voter registration in the county favors Democrats by 17 percentage points. That means that even if the GOP just keeps pace with Democrats on Election Day, there would still be a GOP voter over-performance.

Similar trends are unfolding in near-by Osceola County and Alachua County, home to Gainesville and the liberal hotbed surrounding the University of Florida. 

In Osceola, turnout currently favors Democrats by about 6 percentage points, with 40% turnout for Democrats and 34% for Republicans. Yet Democrats have a 16-percentage-point voter registration advantage. And, like other blue counties, Election Day turnout has so far favored Republican voters, which means the gap could be even more narrow by day’s end. 

The disparity isn’t quite as great in Alachua, but it’s still there. Republicans have cast about 32% of ballots so far, while Democrats have returned about 51%, a difference of 19 percentage points. Democrats carry a 21-percentage-point voter registration advantage. And GOP voters appear to be at least holding steady with Election Day turnout as it relates to their Democratic counterparts, with about 200 more ballots cast so far. 

North Florida

More bad news is arriving from North Florida, where Duval County, which maintains a Democratic voter advantage despite red voting tendencies, shows GOP voters leading turnout by about 16,000 votes. 

No good take-aways for Dems

With the exception, perhaps, of Duval, these are counties that carry statewide Democrats year after year. They are urban liberal pockets in a state with plenty of deep red rural counties to counteract them. Without these strongholds, Democrats stand virtually no chance of competing on a statewide ballot. And with increased GOP turnout, it leaves local Democrats likewise in peril. 

Peter Schorsch

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises Media and is the publisher of FloridaPolitics.com, INFLUENCE Magazine, and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Previous to his publishing efforts, Peter was a political consultant to dozens of congressional and state campaigns, as well as several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella. Follow Peter on Twitter @PeterSchorschFL.


12 comments

  • Tom

    November 8, 2022 at 2:31 pm

    Jesus Christ nuke Florida. It’s a piss stain on the nation. I live here. Drop it on my head for Christ sakes. Just get rid of these conservative neanderthals AkA Trumps toilet paper.. carpet bagger customers.

    • Tom

      November 8, 2022 at 5:31 pm

      Really Joey!
      You are such a small human.
      Grow up, from Tom FP legend.

      • The Real Tom

        November 8, 2022 at 5:36 pm

        Get out of here FAKE TOM!!!

        • eva

          November 9, 2022 at 3:43 pm

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    • Tom

      November 8, 2022 at 5:31 pm

      Really Joey!
      You are such a small human.
      Grow up, from Tom FP legend.

      • The Real Tom

        November 8, 2022 at 6:38 pm

        Small human? You NO human. Neo fascist animal. Threat to national security.

  • nail

    November 8, 2022 at 2:54 pm

    I have evidence that FL had 608,000 new registered voters from Jan -Oct 30. They are not on the FL voter Registration sheets. Where are they. We had less total voters on Oct 30 than we did on Jan1. I have been in contact with Anothony Mann. I have email. He said he did not know there were new registered voters, but they are on another page on the website. They come from Auto registrations, license registrations
    2022 459,248 21,512 501 31 3 1,413 31,263 61,873 32,474 608,318
    Legend
    DHSMV – Registrations submitted through Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles or County Tax Collectors’ Office
    MAIL – Registrations submitted by mail
    ASST – Registrations submitted through public assistance offices
    DIS/CIL – Registrations submitted through offices serving persons with disabilities or centers for independent living
    REC – Registrations submitted through armed forces recruitment offices
    LIB – Registrations submitted through public libraries
    3PVRO – Registrations collected and submitted by 3rd party voter registration organizations
    OVR – Registrations submitted through RegistertoVoteFlorida.gov (Online Voter Registration launched October 1, 2017)
    SOE – Registrations submitted directly to Supervisor of Elections office

  • Elliott Offen

    November 8, 2022 at 3:05 pm

    Yeah the GOP hogs are rushing to the poles after two years of heinous attacks by the far left. One dude couldn’t take it and blew his brains out. All we need you apes to do is switch to blue. You will do it. You will fkn do it.

  • Moved from Cali

    November 8, 2022 at 3:32 pm

    Not looking good for investors in face mask companies. I only saw a few flat earthers at the polls.

    • Joe Corsin

      November 8, 2022 at 3:57 pm

      Q-Shaman was there

  • Lindsay

    November 9, 2022 at 2:37 pm

    My mom is a registered FL democrat. She has requested a vote by mail or absentee ballot in the last 3 elections and has never one time received one. It’s not impossible that the low D turnout is by design.

  • Based Desantis Supporter

    November 9, 2022 at 6:27 pm

    Why did the jannies remove my post? I know you all do it for free but ffs

Comments are closed.


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