A.G. Gancarski
As Gov. Ron DeSantis readies a formal launch of his 2024 presidential campaign, one average of national polling finds him at a low point.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average pegs DeSantis at just under 20% support in the 2024 Republican Primary field.
Former President Donald Trump boasts nearly 57% support in the same metric.
This is the worst RCP average for DeSantis since before the November 2022 Election.
The tipping point poll appears to be a recent survey from the Trump-friendly Rasmussen Reports, which shows the former President with 62% support and DeSantis with 17%. That is one of several polls that show the Governor’s support under the 20% threshold.
Two other prominent polling averages are better for DeSantis.
The FiveThirtyEight polling average has DeSantis at just over 21%, with Trump still holding majority support at 53%.
The Race to the White House average is even more forgiving to the Florida Governor. Trump only musters 53% support in that model, with DeSantis’ nearly 22% standing as the best of the three major averages.
Race to the White House also offers a delegate forecast based on state polling, which suggests the race is Trump’s to lose. In a crowded field, the former President is predicted to amass 1,788 delegates, with DeSantis taking 598. Just 1,234 are needed to win.
In a field that consolidates to a two-man race after Nevada, Trump draws 1,560 delegates, with DeSantis taking 895.
The open question going forward is how the Governor’s formal launch of his campaign, reported to be May 25, will affect these dynamics. DeSantis is expected to file paperwork and formally launch in Dunedin, the Gulf Coast community where he grew up.
The Governor is also expected to meet with donors next week in Miami, with those supporters, in turn, soliciting more financial support for the 2024 operation.
DeSantis is amassing endorsements already, including from 99 Republican members of the Florida Legislature, 51 among New Hampshire elected officials, and three dozen endorsements from Iowa legislators.
Expect more endorsements to come out with an eye toward establishing DeSantis as the Trump alternative in what is an increasingly crowded field.
8 comments
Dont Say FLA
May 18, 2023 at 11:14 am
Rhonda’s 99 endorsements from within the State of Florida mean nothing beyond how he can line item veto any legislation from anybody he feels like vetoing for any reason such as lack of an endorsement. The New Hampshire and Iowa endorsements, can we differentiate those between endorsements of Rhonda specifically versus people endorsing “Not Trump?” I think perhaps we cannot. Rhonda’s only chance is if Trump goes to prison and MAGAs actually somehow finally believe it to be true and care about having a convicted felon as their presidential candidate, which the MAGAs will never believe it and nor will they care if Trump goes to prison. Therefore, Rhonda is wasting everyone’s time and money and burning Florida down even before the summer fires really get going.
PeterH
May 18, 2023 at 11:27 am
Two years of travel throughout the USA and abroad has supplied DeSantis with ample political exposure.
Millions of Americans have said “NO” …… we don’t want the policies you espouse!
Sure thing! DeSantis will run for president…. The Republican Klown Kar needs another seat warmer.
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Michael K
May 18, 2023 at 2:18 pm
Looks like poor Mrs Rhonda will not be prancing around with her elbow-length white gloves anytime soon – though I will be very disappointed if Mr Rhonda doesn’t find an occasion to reprise his fetching white Nancy Sinatra go-go boots..
Ron DeSantis wears High Heels
May 18, 2023 at 2:31 pm
Most Americans, even Republican Americans, can recognize an un-American authoritarian when they see one.
Dont Say FLA
May 18, 2023 at 6:33 pm
Most Americans, even Republican Americans, can _NOW_ recognize an un-American authoritarian when they see one. And that’s thanks to Defelonious Javina Trump’s failed attempt that one January 6th Never Forget.
LEE ROLLER
May 19, 2023 at 10:10 am
I can’t wait for DeCeiveus to actually launch his presidential campaign in earnest just so I can watch it fail.
His own hubris is going to be his undoing. It’ll be amusing to watch this petty little tyrant of a man bury himself.
GOP voter
May 19, 2023 at 10:40 am
Ron DeSantis is supported and endorsed by establishment Republicans like the bush family, Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell! You can be a good Governor but when you become president you owe these people and there’s no way that I want Governor DeSantis near the white house! Trump is the only one that can clean up this mess that we are in and he’ll go after everyone that has been breaking the law cuz he’s the only one that has the balls to do it! Trump 2024!
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