Guest AuthorLas Vegas odds-makers analyze every conceivable contest on which you can wager money, from the Super Bowl coin-toss to Royal Baby names. They even set odds on who will win the White House.
According to the odds-making website William Harris, the odds of who will reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue after President Barack Obama has Rubio at 6 to 1 just behind Hillary Clinton at 7 to 2. Jeb Bush is at 9 to1, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is 12 to1 and (MSNBC’s favorite) former Vice President Dick Cheney is at 16 to 1.
Many ingredients go into a successful campaign for the Republican nomination for president and Rubio certainly has the necessities as well as some special traits on his resume.
With a strong message and enough money, Rubio has the ability to form a winning foundation of Tea Party types and conservative groups because of his positions on top GOP priorities: taxes, spending, guns and moral topics.
For starters, Rubio’s Cuban roots make him wildly attractive to a party desperate to gain popularity among Hispanics.
His heritage also makes him a de facto expert witness on the destructive history of Communism. This could place him front and center in the battle to rescue free-market capitalism, which the GOP needs desperately.
Anyone who has been to a Rubio event knows that TV doesn’t do him justice. Marco is a dynamic communicator who delivers a heartfelt and ultra-patriotic message.
His ability to articulate a patriotic, conservative message has earned him incredible name identification within the GOP and a dedicated following in the GOP base.
One stumbling block could be that he has been right.
Rubio was swept into office during the great GOP year of 2010 when the country realized we couldn’t spend our way to prosperity. Rubio led this charge and he is right.
Rubio is right when he says that in the upcoming budget battle it is Obama who is threatening to shut down the federal government because he’s unwilling to negotiate with a U.S. House that has a GOP majority.
The final issue that may dog Rubio is immigration reform. He is right that the U.S. can no longer ignore this issue even though he has been attacked by many conservative and Republican leaders.
The online magazine The Hill reported this week that, “Rubio has taken a hit in the polls and his aspirations to run for president in 2016 may be in danger because of his outspoken support for the controversial Senate immigration bill.”
But, Rubio is pivoting publicly from leading the reform bill to building support to withhold the money needed to implement ObamaCare, an issue that is much more appealing to conservative GOP primary voters.
The latest Gallup poll shows that with fewer than two months before the health insurance exchanges open nationwide, more Americans disapprove (49 percent) than approve (41 percent) of Obamacare.
Political etiquette is also a factor. Usually, a politician is re-elected at least once before the public will promote him to a higher office. Obama and former Gov. Charlie Crist are notable exceptions.
In fact, every president since 1960, excluding Jimmy Carter and Obama, was re-elected to his current job before being “promoted” to president. Rubio is dynamic enough to overcome such odds.
Deciding to seek the presidency will not be easy for Rubio. He will be deciding between being a leading voice in the U.S. Senate or becoming the leader of the free world.
Once he announces for president, other Republicans will announce that they are running for his Senate seat and the Florida GOP has a deep bench. Rubio would have to be willing to sacrifice his U.S. Senate seat if he opts to run for president.
Another potential obstacle is Jeb Bush.
Money and organization are essential to win the nomination. Jeb has them; Marco doesn’t.
But ddds-makers know their business and they predict that Rubio is preparing to go “all-in” for a presidential run.
