Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign is brushing off the dust from Iowa with another soft reboot.
Even before his distant No. 2 finish in the Hawkeye State, the would-be GOP nominee vowed to continue his “scrappy campaign” into March, when a glut of states from Alabama to California will hold their primary elections.
On Wednesday, the main super PAC backing DeSantis’ campaign offered an indication of what “scrappy” looks like: More layoffs.
The Governor’s chances of winning the nomination have certainly dwindled over the past week. After pouring time, energy — and loads of cash — into Iowa, the man once seen as the top alternative to former President Donald Trump managed to earn just 21% of the vote.
That 30-point loss will likely be the campaign’s zenith until much later in the game, assuming DeSantis indeed presses on through Super Tuesday.
The campaign has essentially ceded New Hampshire, where the Governor is polling at a paltry 5%. There’s little chance of a surge, either, as the Granite State’s vision of Republicanism is incompatible with the culture war-focused brand DeSantis has been cultivating for the past four years.
Meanwhile, former Amb. Nikki Haley’s campaign is entering its make-or-break stretch, with New Hampshire being her best chance to score an outright win. It’s a long shot — she was trailing Trump 50%-34% in the same poll that pegged DeSantis at 5% — but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
She’s even scored an endorsement from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, and the super PAC backing her bid is rolling out a new ad making sure voters get the memo ahead of voting day.
If Haley pulls off the upset in New Hampshire, the thinking goes, she’ll gather some steam for a strong showing in South Carolina, where she was twice elected Governor. Without that momentum, however, she’s looking at a home state beatdown on the level of Rubio 2016.
DeSantis 2024 is banking on that, and its post-Iowa strategy reflects it.
DeSantis has little chance of winning the Palmetto State — he’s in single digits there as well — but if he can wrangle a few more votes, adding to the gulf between Haley and Trump, her campaign may stall out and set up the one-on-one primary DeSantis wants.
It’s not clear whether the Governor would tangibly benefit from a two-man race, however. If polling is to be trusted, the likely prize is being the top tomato can in a party that’s still very much Trump’s.
Bill Day’s Latest
Evening Reads
—”Ron DeSantis’ bold new strategy is for Donald Trump to win New Hampshire and South Carolina” via Jim Newell of Slate
—”Shake-up by a desperate DeSantis opens wider path for Nikki Haley in New Hampshire” via Shane Goldmacher, Kellen Browning, Maggie Haberman and Nicholas Nehamas of The New York Times
—“DeSantis shifts his campaign away from New Hampshire days before the state’s primary” via Steve Peoples and Will Weissert of The Associated Press
—”DeSantis hasn’t learned a thing” via Keith Naughton of The Hill
—“In Iowa, DeSantis takes his loss as a win” via Mini Racker of TIME
—“DeSantis aims to slice state budget by $4.6 billion. Here’s how he would do it.” via Jeffrey Schweers of the Orlando Sentinel
—”Democrats flip Florida House District 35” via Matthew Isbell of MCI Maps
—“In unusual Florida case, drug dealer’s guns can’t be considered in sentencing” via Silas Morgan of Fresh Take Florida
Quote of the Day
“I recognize it’s not government’s job to raise someone’s children nor would we ever espouse that, but it is our role to give parents the tools and provisions to protect their children. We do it every single day. We don’t allow them to purchase alcohol. We don’t let them take them to strip clubs.”
— Rep. Chase Tramont, clapping back at critics who say HB 3 is an overreach.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
It turns out there are many Dr. Seuss-inspired cocktails, and any of them would suffice for DeSantis, who continues to be dogged by reports of inane book bans.
Tramont’s bill placing an age-verification mandate on adult content scored another win in committee. Pour him a Papa Bear for looking out for Florida kids.
Congrats to Eric Edwards on his promotion to senior VP of Public Affairs at U.S. Sugar. It may annoy the bartender a bit, but have him muddle some Florida-grown crystals for a classic Mojito.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Florida State travels to Miami for key ACC matchup
After losing their ACC opener in December, the Florida State Seminoles have won four straight conference games as they face their in-state conference rivals in Miami tonight (7 p.m., ACC Network).
Only North Carolina, the team FSU lost to last month, ranks above the Seminoles in the ACC standings. The key to the winning streak has been Florida State’s defense. In the four wins, FSU (10-6; 4-1 in ACC) has limited the opposition to less than 72 points per game and 45 percent shooting from the field.
Miami (12-4; 3-2) has lost two of their last three in conference play. Since 2024 began, the Hurricanes’ Matthew Cleveland has led the way averaging over 20 points per game.
After a run to the Final Four last season, Miami has been inconsistent to begin the year and the matchup against Florida State will be a measuring stick game for Jim Larranaga’s team. Miami has been very good at home only losing one game at the Watsco Center in Coral Gables. That lone home loss was their last game on their home court, an 80-71 loss to Louisville six days ago.
ALSO TONIGHT
7 p.m. — Detroit Red Wings @ Florida Panthers
7:30 p.m. — Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. — Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
8 p.m. — NCAAM: UCF Knights @ Texas Longhorns
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
