Poll: Vern Buchanan is set up for a smack down of Primary opponent Eddie Spier

Vern Buchanan.

U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan is trouncing his Primary opponent, Eddie Speir, by more than 50 percentage points, according to a St. Pete Polls survey obtained by Florida Politics.

The poll, taken among likely Republican Primary voters, puts Buchanan at 64% support, with Speir capturing just 13% support and 23% of voters undecided. Among voters older than 70, Buchanan leads 79% to just 8%.

The poll also showed Buchanan with high favorability among Republicans in the Manatee and Hillsborough County region Florida’s 16th Congressional District encompasses, at 4-to-1 in favor of his job performance. Again, that number goes up among seniors who dominate voter turnout, at 72% favorability to just 11% unfavorable.

Speir does not enjoy the same likability, with underwater favorability numbers at 19% unfavorable to just 16% favorable, indicating the controversial Republican is largely unknown.

Among seniors and men, Speir’s unfavorable numbers go up, to 23%.

FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings place St. Pete Polls as one of the top pollsters in the state based on its poll accuracy and methodological transparency.

While voters appear largely unfamiliar with Speir, he has been in the news in recent weeks and months, but not for good reasons. The Sarasota Herald-Tribune reported last month that Speir may be violating federal tax law by running his campaign from his nonprofit private Christian school, Inspiration Academy in Bradenton.

The IRS prohibits nonprofits from directly or indirectly participating in a political campaign. Violators could lose their nonprofit status and be on the hook for paying retroactive taxes. Speir responded to the Herald-Tribune that he had done nothing wrong and instead attacked the IRS as “woke” and “weaponized” and accused the paper of carrying “the water of a corrupt politician and his call to action to activate a woke and weaponized IRS.”

Speir also reportedly directed nearly $25,000 raised for his campaign to family members. Both in direct payments and to family-owned businesses, Speir’s campaign in Florida’s 16th Congressional District has pumped more money to loved ones than he has raised in outside contributions, Florida Politics reported last month. The payments included more than $2,900 in travel reimbursements to his wife, Claire, and $9,700 in campaign salary payments to his son, Tal, between Aug. 29 and Dec. 29 last year.

Speir is a conservative activist. Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed him to the New College Board of Trustees as part of his efforts to reimagine the small liberal arts school into a more conservative image, but the Senate did not confirm the appointment.

The poll numbers echo Buchanan’s past performance when facing a Primary challenger. When he faced Republican Martin Hyde two years ago, Buchanan secured more than 86% of the vote. It was the highest vote percentage of any Republican in Florida on the GOP Primary ballot in 2022.

The Primary Election is Aug. 20.