Winner and Loser of the Week in Florida politics — Week of 4.28.24

Former Palm Beach County Chair Mindy Koch’s wild ride appears to be over, as she has resigned her position and is now running for the Palm Beach County School Board.

And while Democrats have some reasons to be optimistic this cycle, they need to cut out stuff like this in order to make those dreams a reality.

Koch’s tenure as Chair — which she won by a single vote — was under fire since last year, when Florida Democratic Party (FDP) Chair Nikki Fried stepped in and got involved with a local party dispute over, in part, whether Koch should have fired a precinct leader.

Well, that friction culminated in Fried firing Koch and two other party Chairs in March in an attempt to reshape underperforming party chapters. Sure, that’s a messy move, but sometimes leaders need to make tough decisions in order to right the ship. And there’s no doubt that Democrats performed poorly in Palm Beach County last cycle.

But this saga went from messy to mayhem when just weeks later, an FDP committee reinstated Koch as local Chair, against Fried’s wishes. What sort of signal does that send to donors and supporters looking for signs of stability from a party that has been lacking it for years?

Well, just over a month after returning to the role, Koch voluntarily resigned, arguing the party has a “cancerous element” and blaming members for using “MAGA tactics” to undercut her election.

Yikes.

Yes, Republicans have plenty of drama too. but when you’re winning major elections year after year, you can afford some turmoil. Democrats need everything going right in order to even make this state purple again. The need to hope that stuff like this is a sign that they are moving past the turbulence, and isn’t instead a sign of more to come.

Now, it’s on to our weekly game of winners and losers.

Winners

Honorable mention: Vince Lago. Lago dodged a bullet this week, as an effort to recall the Coral Gables Mayor came up short by just 117 votes.

A debate over developers was at the center of this recall effort. Those looking to remove Lago raised concern over his connection with developer Rishi Kapoor, who stepped down as head of Location Ventures last Fall. That firm is the focus of several criminal investigations, in part related to payments to Miami Mayor Francis Suarez.

Lago, meanwhile, countered that “out-of-town developers who wish to destroy our community” were pushing for the recall.

And it almost worked. The group actually submitted 1,719 petitions in total, more than the 1,650 needed to remove Lago. But only 1,533 petitions were certified in the end, prompting the effort to fall short.

Lago in 2023 won re-election for another two years unopposed. And unless something changes, it appears he’ll get to finish out that term.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: Corey Simon. We go out of our way here to spotlight when politicians on either side of the aisle take bold stands against their side of the aisle, as those principled moves are becoming more and more rare as time goes on.

Well, credit to Simon this week, as he spoke out against a Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) decision to move forward with an oil drilling permit near the Apalachicola River.

“It is unconscionable that efforts to drill for oil are happening at the same time that we are fighting for the revitalization of the Apalachicola Bay,” Simon said.

“The $25 million we’re trying to fund would allow DEP to enter into financial assistance agreements with the City of Apalachicola to implement projects that improve surface water and groundwater quality within the Apalachicola Bay Area of Critical State Concern, important legislation that I FOUGHT FOR AND PASSED. We cannot allow the actions of one irresponsible body to impact the limited precious natural resources that belong to the entire region.”

It’s a big deal when a member of the party of “drill, baby, drill” comes out so forcefully against drilling. Florida Republicans have at times taken a different position mirroring Simon’s, however. We most recently saw this play out when the 2024 GOP Presidential Primary was still competitive, as Ron DeSantis criticized Nikki Haley for pushing for more drilling in the Everglades.

But it particularly matters here because this DEP process isn’t complete yet, and a respected Senator like Simon coming out against the permit has a real chance to make an impact and possibly put a stop to this move.

One of Simon’s Democratic opponents, Daryl Parks, already came out and tried to peg this issue to Simon, pushing the Republican Senator to speak out against the project. Simon’s forceful statement blunts any line of criticism Parks would like to use, and shows Simon is willing to speak out on principle when the time comes.

The biggest winner: Ben Sasse. Sasse and the rest of the University of Florida (UF) administration deserve credit this weekend for handling pro-Palestinian protestors accused of breaking university rules in a safe manner that allowed the university to avoid the massive unrest seen elsewhere in the country.

The scenes at Columbia, the University of California, Los Angeles, and elsewhere have shown how out-of-control these protests can get. And sometimes, these are difficult calls. Universities should be beacons of free speech, and have been central to protests movements in decades past. At the same time, breaking and taking over property pretty clearly goes beyond protected speech.

UF attempted to make that point clear in a statement regarding recent protests.

“Peaceful protests are constitutionally protected. Camping, putting up structures, disrupting academic activity, or threatening others on university property is strictly prohibited,” the university said.

“The University has clearly communicated this to our students and explained that they can exercise their free speech rights but breaking the law will result in an immediate trespassing order from UFPD and an interim suspension from Student Life.”

When pro-Palestinian protestors attempted to take over the Plaza of the Americas at UF, law enforcement stepped in and made several arrests.

But unlike police intervention elsewhere, things didn’t spiral out of control at UF. Compare that to the scene at the University of South Florida, where tear gas was used in a much more dramatic scene.

Sasse and his administration were able to thread the needle here in a near impossible situation, removing students accused of crossing the line without endangering them or others. And UF spokesperson Steve Orlando hammered that point home in a statement following the arrests.

“This is not complicated: The University of Florida is not a daycare, and we do not treat protesters like children — they knew the rules, they broke the rules, and they’ll face the consequences,” Orlando said

“For days UPD patiently and consistently reiterated the rules. Today, individuals who refused to comply were arrested after UPD gave multiple warnings and multiple opportunities to comply.”

Losers

Dishonorable mention: Donald Trump. It still remains to be seen how Trump’s New York trial will play out. Will he be convicted? If so, will the penalty even be significant? And will voters hold it against him, or see this prosecution as overly aggressive?

We don’t have answers to those questions yet. But this is a weekly column. And in that case, this was not a good week for Trump.

At the beginning of the week, Trump was held in contempt for repeatedly flouting Judge Juan Merchan’s gag order barring Trump from going after witnesses and family members of those involved in the trial. Trump was hit with a $9,000 fine — a pittance for him — and was also threatened with jail time for future violations.

And as an aside, despite Trump’s wildly false claim, this gag order does not prevent him from testifying in the case.

The trial also featured several high-profile moments during witnesses testimony. Yes, these are the prosecution witnesses, which are necessarily going to have bad news for Trump when viewed in a vacuum. But it couldn’t have been easy to watch his former acolyte, Hope Hicks, giving testimony against him in a criminal case.

While that all must have been stressful — and, apparently, sleep-inducing — for the former President, he’s landing here as well due to absolutely abhorrent and cowardly comments he made to Time Magazine in a two-part print interview released this week.

Asked if Trump was worried about political violence surrounding this year’s election — a fair question given the events of Jan. 6 and the recent turmoil in protests we’ve seen around the country in recent years, Trump answered succinctly.

“No. I don’t think you’ll have political violence,” he said.

Okay, all well and good so far.

Reporter Eric Cortellessa followed up with a similar question, when Trump responded, “I think we’re gonna have a big victory. And I think there will be no violence.”

Connecting his own victory to peace is already implicitly suggesting that violence may occur should he lose, but it got worse. That initial exchange came during their first interview session. So when Cortellessa and Trump met again, Cortellessa sought to clarify Trump’s comments further.

And Trump too, went even further this time as well.

“Mr. President, in our last conversation you said you weren’t worried about political violence in connection with the November election. You said, ‘I think we’re going to win and there won’t be violence.’ What if you don’t win, sir?” Cortellessa asked.

After spouting off more delusional whining about how the 2020 election was “stollen” from him, Trump explained what would happen if he loses.

“I think we’re going to win. And if we don’t win, you know, it depends. It always depends on the fairness of an election.”

Sorry, did the guy looking to lead this country into prosperity just gave a passive “it depends” about potential political violence?

Let’s give Trump every benefit of the doubt here. Those comments, on their own, are not an explicit, in-your-face call for violence. And yeah, we’re at a tense point in this country. Depending on a lot of factors, there may be some violent episodes. On its face, that’s an accurate statement.

But to be clear, there is never a point where violence is going to help bring this increasingly fracturing country together. It’s only going to snowball and make things worse. Anyone hurt has families and friends who will be impacted, and no one’s political aspirations should be seen as a valid reason to commit violence.

Do you notice how Trump neglected to say anything remotely like that?

And yeah, strictly speaking, depending on how events unfold, there may or may not be violence. A lot of factors can serve as triggers for different people. But what’s the only thing Trump mentioned? “It always depends on the fairness of an election.”

In other words, “If I lose, I’ll say it’s unfair, then all bets are off.” And believe me, he is 100% going to blame a rigged election if he loses again.

It’s for all those reasons that someone running to be President giving a passive, hands off answer like “it depends” is such an example of moral cowardice. Isn’t Trump supposed to be a strong leader? An alpha male? Guess what: Leaders stamp this stuff out and explain why it’s wrong. They get control of their people. They don’t passively OK it with remarks like that.

Does a military general tell his troops that “it depends” whether a mission will be successful or not? Does a head coach say “it depends” whether his team will win or execute a play? No. Leaders motivate them to put solid ideas into action and try to get the best out of them. They don’t throw their hands up at a complete lack of control over the situation.

Trump is a weak man, and this is another example.

Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: Florida Dems/Brevard GOP. Here we have a case of two keynote invites that have aged poorly, but for very different reasons.

The FDP this weekend is hosting Democratic U.S. Sen. John Fetterman to keynote its big Leadership Blue gala. That event aims to raise money and rally party loyalists as Democrats seek to show up this cycle after getting clobbered in 2022.

The problem? Fetterman is expressing some views very out of step with the Democratic base. He has been sharply pro-Israel throughout the entire conflict in Gaza, even as left-leaning activists grow increasingly uncomfortable with the way Israel is conducting the war. That led to some calling for the party to disinvite Fetterman from the event.

Then just this week, days before he was set to speak, Fetterman spoke out in support of legislation praising DeSantis for signing a bill banning lab-grown meat in Florida.

Being pro-Israel and praising someone on the other side of the aisle are not outlandish positions in a vacuum. But for FDP’s keynote speaker to be so out of sync with the base regarding Israel and to praise DeSantis — the party’s mortal enemy — the week of the gala leaves the party open to attacks from the base that needs to turn out in order for Democrats to be successful.

Then, the Brevard Republican Party said, “Hold my beer.”

At the party’s annual Lincoln/Reagan Dinner on May 25 — an event named after two Presidents who were famously shot — the Brevard GOP landed on South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as its keynote speaker.

Noem was already under fire after admitting in her book that she executed her 14-month-old dog. But that same book now has glaring lies as well about her political career, prompting Noem to blame the errors on a ghostwriter.

The Brevard GOP, however, is standing by its decision.

“I saw the movie ‘Old Yeller.’ When you had a dog that was vicious, the poor guy took care of it,” Chair Rick Lacey said. “You have to do what’s right. You have to protect your family from animals, whether from a wolf or a rabid dog. The (Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals) puts down vicious animals every day.”

Someone should tell Lacey that even Trump isn’t sticking by Noem at this point. It’s OK to call an audible here and fetch another speaker.

The biggest loser: Aaron Dimmock. Dimmock is looking to oust Republican U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz in a GOP Primary. But so far, the challenger in Florida’s 1st Congressional District is running a workshop on what not to do in a modern Republican Primary.

First strike: His ties to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. You’ll recall that Gaetz famously ousted McCarthy from his post, leading McCarthy to resign. McCarthy then decided to quietly retreat into private life to make a fat salary …. just kidding! He’s now on the warpath against Gaetz and others who voted to oust him from the Speakership.

We’re going to go out on a limb here and say that Gaetz is more popular in his home district than McCarthy, and the fact that his fingerprints are on this is already setting Dimmock up to fail.

But wait, there’s more. Right-leaning outlet the Daily Caller also found references on Dimmock LinkedIn page promoting #blacklivesmatter and aiming to serve nonprofits “advancing diversity, equity, and inclusion.”

As with Fetterman, nothing wrong with backing those things in a vacuum. But we’re talking about a GOP Primary in the Panhandle. That stuff has no chance of flying there.

Perhaps the least meaningful point, but also most embarrassing: Gaetz’s team snatched up several Dimmock domains — AaronDimmockForCongress.com, AaronDimmock.com and DimmockForCongress.com — and plans to run content such as “Meet DEI Dimmock” trashing the challenger.

If your operation can’t even scoop up some basic domains for your campaign, you’re probably going to fare as well as prior Gaetz challengers.