Poll: Donald Trump cruises against Joe Biden in Florida, RFK no factor
Image via AP.

Donald Trump Joe Biden
1 in 5 Democrats may not vote for Biden's re-election.

New polling from the Florida Chamber of Commerce suggests that Democrats are guilty of wishful thinking when they say Florida’s too close to call in November.

To the contrary, former President Donald Trump is set up for a decisive win in the Sunshine State, according to a phone survey of 609 registered voters: 223 Democrats, 256 Republicans and 130 others.

In a two-man race, Trump leads Joe Biden 51% to 42%, with just 79% of registered Democrats saying they’ll vote for him.

Trump, despite his legal woes and controversies during his presidency and up until the present day, has 89% support among Republicans, an especially potent bloc in what is now an R+7 state in terms of voter registration.

Hispanics are ready for a change at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue as well, with 58% wanting to get the man from Mar-a-Lago a second term.

Meanwhile, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, who has been taking fire from the campaigns of both the former President and the current occupant of the White House, is a wash when it comes to which of the two major candidates he hurts the most.

“While Kennedy would currently win 10% of the vote in Florida according to the Florida Chamber’s poll, this support comes evenly from both main party candidates as Donald Trump retains a nine-point advantage over Joe Biden in a three-way ballot, 46-37%,” the polling memo asserts.

This polling tracks with Five Thirty Eight’s average of the race, which shows a nearly 10-point Trump lead in the state, which he’s carried in the last two Presidential Election cycles.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


47 comments

  • Impeach Biden

    May 10, 2024 at 5:36 am

    Florida is solid Red, and Nikki Fried is full of crap.

    • rick whitaker

      May 10, 2024 at 7:52 pm

      HOWLER MONKEY, frorida is red, but not dead. fine people like nikki fried can breathe life back into florida after all the dead bloated whales called maga are gone. howl about that all day long.

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    • Elvis Pitts "AMERICA'S BIG VOICE ON THE RIGHT" American

      May 10, 2024 at 9:59 pm

      So true IB,
      I’m advising all Dook 4 Brains Leftys to start screaming at the sky early so they will be ready for Trump.
      Thanks IB,
      Elvis Pitts American

      • rick whitaker

        May 10, 2024 at 11:19 pm

        EARLINE, so you and HOWLER MONKEY are teaming up in agreement about florida’s level of maga cultism. good luck with that dumb and dumber. EARLINE, you are the dumber. HOWLER MONKEY is young and dumb, but you are old enough to know better. so you win the contest for dumbness with HOWLER MONKEY.

  • Tom

    May 10, 2024 at 7:13 am

    Doesn’t really matter what happens in Florida. Not like we’re a swing state. Biden will win the popular vote again and depending on the luck of the draw, trump might or might not pull off the electoral college. The whole is pretty boring already.

    • Impeach Biden

      May 10, 2024 at 7:30 am

      Both sides have poor candidates. Sad that this is the best that both parties bring. Can’t vote for Joe. Inflation is eating us alive. Nearly 8 million illegals now. Foreign policy disasters and face it, the guy is in full blown cognitive decline. I have no faith at all in his VP.

      • Dont Say FLA

        May 10, 2024 at 8:34 am

        Hey IBS, congrats to you. You said you have no faith at all in his VIP. You avoided misogynistic statements about her femaleness, sexist statements about her career, and you even avoided xenophobic mocking of her name. Good for you, man. Good for you.

        • Impeach Biden

          May 10, 2024 at 9:15 am

          I don’t do DEI, wokeism, pronouns, etc. Don’t need to with Kamala. Like I have said before, if she can get a law degree, anyone can. A perfect match for Joe.

      • Nope

        May 10, 2024 at 9:10 am

        We will be lucky to get through the next 4 years somehow intact regardless of who is “elected”. But I don’t understand people’s thinking on Trump magically fixing things back to 2019 status when the reason things are as they are is both candidates artificially propping up the economy for political reasons when there *should* have been a self corrective short recession instead of now heading into a bubble burst and more inflation with increasing wealth and wage disparity, and people think somehow Trump is smart enough to fix that when he helped create it? Trump wants to take over the Fed so he can keep interest rates artificially low, and more tax cuts for the top, both which will further drive up inflation and accelerate the alarming increase in income disparity. Trump era deregulation spurred the housing cost crisis and Biden administration’s policies overcompensated with more lax lending standards backed by the government, so now there’s a housing cost bubble. Trump has zero policy on artificial intelligence and cyber which are major, sea-change global economic issues and threats facing the economy and would probably gut the agencies doing anything at all, and Congress’s brain trust is about as useful as a box of hair. Trump’s tax plan actually raises taxes on working people who make less than $1M to pay for tax cuts at the top. Biden’s benefits households making less than $400k. Trump’s last tax cuts were still the largest deficit creator since Reagan, exploding the national debt. Some of the tax cuts were good for the working class but far too much went to the top and increased cost of living so it’s washed out, artificial. (Reagan was not a real conservative and neither is Trump.) The only reason inflation didn’t happen sooner was the economy was already entering a natural contraction. Both parties are guilty of artificially propping up the economy and preventing natural economic cycles for political reasons. Both parties prop up wall street in different ways, neither party is really for anybody making less than $1M annually, but I don’t see how anyone thinks Trump will benefit them personally unless they’re just really “special”. If Trump is re-elected there will not only be constitutional, institutional, but also global and financial implications. Unforseen consequences from someone who does not take personal responsibility when things go down. And they will, because he prefers to manufacture crises he can control instead of addressing the ones at hand. Biden administration has ironically lost on the border policy because they were so afraid of their own party, the liberal elites who cry crocodile tears and benefit from the same hypocrisy of needing undocumented workers as the R’s and confuse a fair and efficient immigration policy with non existent border security. Neither party has ever gotten it right and both benefit from it being broken. But I maintain that it will be the left who divides and undermines itself, as usual. R will always fall in line and vote R no matter what, and they show up to vote instead of complaining from the couch. But the left will pick a hill to die on on principle, and forfeit the election. So it goes. We will see. Cue the rotten tomatoes.

        • Impeach Biden

          May 10, 2024 at 10:23 am

          “NOPE”. That’s Joe’s message to the bad people around the world. Did any of the pay attention to his word? NOPE🤣

        • rick whitaker

          May 10, 2024 at 7:59 pm

          NOPE, your fatalistic statement about the dem party is not shared by me. stating the failures of the past instead of embracing the accountability of the present and near future doesn’t help much. i have a love and faith for the dem party, you, not so much. i troubleshoot the problems of my family and set out to fix and correct all issues i find that need tweaking. that can be done with the dem party, but not with your negativity.

        • MH/Duuuval

          May 10, 2024 at 9:08 pm

          “natural economic cycles” only exist in textbooks, so I vote for an economy that puts everyone who wants a job to work, provides a safety net if things fall through and a chance for a solid education, and succors the sick and dying.

          The MAGAs offer a form of water torture, trickling down upon the rest of us what inadvertently escapes their tight grasp. I don’t see long-term benefits for a society of a growing class of billionaires and millions of ordinary citizens who can’t put together $400 in an emergency. A nation based on a large and ever-expanding middle class, educated and free, is the better answer.

        • Ocean Joe

          May 11, 2024 at 2:08 pm

          Have to agree with most of that. And I will take that box of hair. Can use it.

          One thing you left out is the Trump approach to covid. We can argue that pandemic spending has led us to inflation but there is no question solid leadership would have united us instead which may have minimized the impact. Instead we had states competing against each other AND against the federal government for urgently needed supplies. Trump gets credit in my book by using his assholian personality to expedite creation of the vaccine despite the fact he indulged the antivaxxers and nuts who refuse to take it. He also encouraged the nonsense of hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin because the right wing talking heads sold him on it the same way he conned folks with his University.

          To tie that together, Trump is an imbecile who took four years of a growing economy courtesy of policies under Obama, overheated it to give more to the wealthy and kapow! Once covid hit our divided and disorganized nation, the cut off of supply and ramped up demand did the rest.

          Were you better off 4 years ago? Maybe 5,6, and 7 years ago, but 4 years ago I recall empty shelves in the grocery stores, gas lines, food lines and a deer in the headlights president who caught covid but was afraid wearing a mask would mess up his make-up.

      • rick whitaker

        May 10, 2024 at 7:41 pm

        HOWLER MONKEY, don’t lie, your party may have bad candidates like you said, but not my candidates. biden and harris are great candidates. QUIT lying. you are just too immature to know good from bad and what causes what. leave the thinking to others and you do whatever you can do. i can’t imagine what you do for a living, it must be real simple, whatever it is.

        • Impeach Biden

          May 10, 2024 at 7:53 pm

          Biden and Harris great candidates. Hilarious. Really I don’t know who has had more cognitive decline Biden or the Tennessee Hillbilly. You also try and promote yourself as some sort of oracle on this board but you are full of Tennessee Red Clay. Now I will continue to let yourself build this impression of me in your tiny little brain. I will just say like most of your postings here that you really have no clue.

          • rick whitaker

            May 11, 2024 at 1:50 pm

            HOWLER MONKEY, your comment about naples was incomprehensible. i have no idea what you were saying. you critisize me for being capable and on top of things, just because you aren’t. how childish. i say things freely and reveal facts about myself during conversation. but you don’t. no age, profession, education or training experience, or any factual content. all you do is parrot maga media sites, how boring. what facts are you hiding about yourself. are you a 13 year old girl? you hide behind the lack of honesty.

          • rick whitaker

            May 11, 2024 at 2:03 pm

            HOWLER MONKEY, it’s georgia that has the red clay. there is no red clay on my tennessee properties. where do you get this mis information. i despise naples, why would want to buy there?? i also don’t like naples italy. i saw a body floating in the bay there regularly, and the people i met were sharks. just like naples florida as far as the sharks go. i’m turned off by greed.

        • Impeach Biden

          May 10, 2024 at 7:59 pm

          Truly sad the moderator scrubbed my reply to Jethro. It was quick witted and true. Shame on the scrubber.

          • rick whitaker

            May 10, 2024 at 8:04 pm

            HOWLER MONKEY, calling me jethro, makes you act like jethro. and NO i am not the father-in-law of moses. when harris becomes the vp you better show some respect you sniveling little brat.

          • Impeach Biden

            May 10, 2024 at 8:12 pm

            Well looking at your avatar, I guess you could call everyone a brat. What are you 80+ like senile Joe?

          • rick whitaker

            May 10, 2024 at 9:34 pm

            HOWLER MONKEY, i’m 71 and i’m healthy and not a sniveling little brat like you, so i’m great. don’t be too jealous. if you were to work 60 hours a week and sacrifice your own needs to get ahead, then you might be as successful as i am. no need to be jealous. you live in florida, so that is a big handicap for you to get ahead. other states are much easier to get by in. first you must get that maga cult crap out of your head. that, will be a big problem for you. you don’t seem to listen to others much.

          • Impeach Biden

            May 10, 2024 at 9:41 pm

            Once again Rick. You have no clue. Okay money bags. Go by yourself one of those beachfront properties in Naples or any other beach in Florida. You can’t, that’s why you moved to Rocky Top. I close again telling you that you have no clue.

  • Dont Say FLA

    May 10, 2024 at 8:33 am

    Trump is cruising up the creek, without a paddle.

  • joey

    May 10, 2024 at 8:20 pm

    Who care about Florida. PA will decide the President and Trump will not win PA.

    • MH/Duuuval

      May 10, 2024 at 9:11 pm

      I like PA and have enjoyed visiting there a number of times, but its electorates are up for grabs.

      • rick whitaker

        May 11, 2024 at 1:55 pm

        MH my dad was from carnegie pa. i visited there a lot as a kid. i don’t know the east part of the state though. i guess it’s like folrida. north florida is like alabama, and south florida is like a living hell. too simple, i know.

        • Ocean Joe

          May 11, 2024 at 2:22 pm

          Living in south Florida all my life, I represent your remark.

  • Impeach Biden

    May 10, 2024 at 9:55 pm

    Scrubbed twice now on this thread. The moderator is either a friend of Rick, soft or both.

    • rick whitaker

      May 10, 2024 at 11:20 pm

      HOWLER MONKEY, i am the moderator you fool.

      • Impeach Biden

        May 11, 2024 at 6:05 am

        A thinned skin one at that. I am not surprised.

        • rick whitaker

          May 11, 2024 at 3:36 pm

          HOWLER MONKEY, a moderators job is to keep the howler monkeys out.

  • Ocean Joe

    May 11, 2024 at 2:15 pm

    I think Trump will win via the electoral college and then we will all get what we richly deserve.
    Democrats will be justly punished for not forcing Biden to step aside, recognizing that regardless of whether you agree with his decisions he is just not fit anymore.
    Republicans will be punished when the thing they love most: their wealth, is decimated by Trump’s reckless, selfish, and willful behavior as set out by NOPE above.
    We all have it coming for accepting a pair of 80 somethings as our choice: an imbecile (R) or a near incompetent (D).

    • rick whitaker

      May 11, 2024 at 3:57 pm

      OJ, i guess you are young. i remember when i turned 60, i said, boy i was dumb when i was 50. i know sharp young people and old people. being an ageist is not fair. age is a number, not an indicator of how you can perform. when i ran my company, i could out perform workers much younger. i would take an 80 year old biden with a good back up system, to a trump of any age with what he would call a back up system. is it the thousands of geriatric citizens in south florida that turned you against older people. BTW i felt that my 70 year old self was more in touch than my 60 year old self. i am a dem so i guess i sound like one. ageism is not a progressive dem thing.

    • MarvinM

      May 11, 2024 at 9:03 pm

      Ocean, I don’t agree with a lot of what you wrote here.
      Going in reverse order, 4rth sentence first, I don’t think Trump is an imbecile. But I don’t want him as President again for many reasons, some of which NOPE did go over above. Trump has no moral character. He is not someone I could point my kids to and say “Hey, you should aspire to be like that”.

      And as for characterizing Joe Biden as being “near competent”? JB has worked with his congress to get bills passed, got us through the pandemic, got jobs back, got infrastructure projects going, and despite what else you might think about how he’s handling the Middle East crisis right now, all I can say is, I’d rather have him than Trump. Or RFKjr. Or Jill Stein. Or even Cornel West. If you disagree, tell me why you think those people would have done something better (and what that better thing is).
      So, that kinda also goes to the 2nd and 3rd sentences.
      As for the first, sadly I believe it is possible the electoral vote tally could click in in Trump’s favor. But that would only be an indictment of how wrong the Electoral College method of selecting U.S. Presidents in this day and age.

      So if you care about freedom, I suggest you vote for old Joe. You will be better off under him, even if he croaks in two years, than three months* under Trump (who could easily croak in two years).

      * assuming the House and Senate pass the kind of bills he wants.

      • Dont Say FLA

        May 13, 2024 at 12:22 pm

        If you require further convincing that Trump is an imbecile, go back and stream The Apprentice. No need to waste time on entire episodes. Just skip to the end for the “Board Room” segment where he self identifies as a moe ron every single time.

  • My Take

    May 11, 2024 at 2:54 pm

    Trump apparently just promised BIG OIL all of its dreams for $1 billion.
    Oil derricks just off our beaches?

    • MH/Duuuval

      May 12, 2024 at 2:23 pm

      That was a revelatory moment: Trump soliciting a billion-dollar bribe.

      Big Oil now includes not just OPEC, but large shale companies in the US who have formed a true international cartel.

  • Elvis Pitts "AMERICA'S BIG VOICE ON THE RIGHT" American

    May 11, 2024 at 4:18 pm

    Again all “Dooks” are hereby advised to begin practising “Screaming At The Sky Now” so it wont be so devistating on your fragile “Dook Egos” when Trump kicks Y’all’s Butts.
    “THIS PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT HAS BEEN BROIGHT TO YOU COURTSEY OF:
    Elvis Pitts American

    • rick whitaker

      May 11, 2024 at 4:21 pm

      MOVE ON FOLKS, NO HUMOR HERE

  • Dont Say FLA

    May 13, 2024 at 12:34 pm

    Nappy Head used to be a pejorative term for brownish folks, but people stopped saying things like that because they realized it makes them look like the small one themselves.

    Today, however, Trump has made it perfectly okay to say Nappy Head again, and his voters rejoiced and said hallelujah!

    Joke’s on Trump, though. Nappy Head is his middle name and refers to his own very special hairdo.

    According to Donald Nappy Head Trump, He created the world in six days. And on the seventh day, arrested.

  • Florida politics is awful

    May 13, 2024 at 9:34 pm

    Florida Democrats are basically Republicans anyway.

  • Jim

    May 14, 2024 at 11:14 am

    A poll of 223 “Registered Democrats” doesn’t mean shit.

  • FLPatriot

    May 15, 2024 at 9:11 am

    Florida is Red…Which is why no one can afford to live here now.

    • Dont Say FLA

      May 15, 2024 at 11:15 am

      True dat. Broke iced MAGA / Death To America types keep moving to Red Florida despite their inability to pay rent.

      Ron DeSantis is setting up homeless camps for them while he finger points at San Francisco. Irony, meet your maker, Ron DeSantis.

  • My Take

    May 15, 2024 at 12:00 pm

    Florida is filled with refugees (refuse?) From big northern cities and the Caribbean.
    They are familiar with, and perhaps more at ease with, corruption and officialdom thuggery.

  • rick whitaker

    May 15, 2024 at 12:43 pm

    florida is a right-wing controlled hell hole. the right wing of florida politicians is in control and owns all the results from that control.

Comments are closed.


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