Internal poll shows Kristen Arrington leading Carmen Torres in SD 25

Kristen Arrington
An Impact Research poll shows the lawmaker with a 5-point lead in the Democratic Primary.

Democrats may be looking outside state Sen. Vic Torres’ family for his successor. At least that’s what an internal poll from Democrat Kristen Arrington’s Senate campaign suggests.

A poll from Impact Research shows likely Democratic Primary voters in Senate District 25 favor Arrington over Carmen Torres, the incumbent Senator’s wife. About 30% of those surveyed prefer Arrington, a sitting state Representative, while 25% like Carmen Torres. That puts Arrington’s lead within the poll’s 4.9-percentage-point margin of error.

But the poll has other signs that Arrington’s edge is genuine as the race heads into the Summer. Among habitual voters who are more likely to turn out for the Aug. 20 Democratic Primary, Arrington’s lead grows from 5 percentage points to 9.

And after pollsters read biographies (described in a polling memo as “brief and balanced”) on both candidates, Arrington gains in standing, winning 60% support while Carmen Torres remains at 25%.

At the end of the first quarter this year, Arrington already started with a substantial cash advantage. Arrington’s Senate campaign closed March with $75,260 in cash on hand, compared with Carmen Torres’ $67,318.

The polling from her campaign suggested she also starts the season with more name recognition. About 37% of voters in the district are aware of the two-term state House member, a greater number even than Vic Torres’ 33% name ID. By comparison, Carmen Torres is a known quantity to only 19% of voters.

Vic Torres has served in the Senate since 2016, and logged four years in the House before that. He cannot seek another term due to term limits.

Moreover, the poll shows Arrington to be well liked by Democratic voters, at least those who know her. About 30% of voters have a positive opinion, compared to just 7% with an unfavorable opinion.

“With a strong legislative record, a solid base in Osceola County (75% of SD-25), and a money advantage, Kristen Arrington is the favorite to win the Democratic primary in SD-25,” a polling memo reads. “With the resources to aggressively communicate to voters, Arrington can drastically expand her lead, putting her in the driver’s seat to retain this seat for Florida Senate Democrats.”

The poll focuses only on the Democratic Primary. The winner of that race will go on to race against a Republican nominee. Osceola County School Bob Member Jon Arguello and cellphone dealership owner Jose Martinez are competing for the Republican nomination.

The Democratic nominee should maintain an edge in the district, but Republicans have hopes of making the race a battleground. Vic Torres in 2022 won re-election but with a closer-than-expected 53% of the vote over Republican Peter Vivaldi.

Impact – Memo Fl Sd-25 Poll Summary May 2024 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].

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