Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Following the recent conviction of former President Donald Trump, voter polls show slight shifts but might not be conclusive.
In a nearly 2,000-person voter poll by the New York Times in April and May, Trump was favored over opponent President Joe Biden 48%-45%, a three-point difference. Those same voters now only favor Trump by one point, 47%-46%, after he was found guilty of all 34 charges in his hush money trial last week.
The poll also shared interesting information about their stances regarding the candidates and Trump’s trial. The poll found that 3% switched to Trump after the verdict. Fifteen percent of those who switched said that they pay attention to politics “some of the time or never.” Regarding the verdict, 46% approved of it, 33% disapproved of it, and the rest were undecided. Nearly three-quarters (71%) said they paid a lot of attention to the trial.
This trend could show a possible advantage for Biden ahead of the election. However, the poll showed that despite Biden’s improvement, 1.5% of those previously supporting Biden were now supporting Trump. The Times also said that most who called back to the poll were “generally older, more educated, more highly engaged and more likely to be White” than those who did not respond. For the time being, these results are favorable but not showing a clear advantage.
The latest Emerson College poll showed that around 45% of people are “very likely” to vote. Among those voters, Trump has a three-point advantage over Biden, with 5% of those very likely to vote being undecided.
While the 5% could have some influence on the results, further parts of the study show that it may not be as impactful. Trump’s conviction saw 36% of voters say that they were less likely to vote for him, which makes up only around 9% of the whole study. This means that within the 45% of voters, roughly 1.8% would be influenced by the recent verdict.
Regardless, Trump’s campaign has been pushing for high Republican voter turnout. Part of this has been a surprising move to support mail-in voting.
Trump, who criticized absentee voting during his 2020 campaign, filmed a video for the Republican National Committee where he encourages Republicans who are not able to vote in person on Election Day to get absentee ballots or vote early.
“Many Republicans like to vote on Election Day, and we must swamp the radical Democrats with massive turnout on Tuesday, Nov. 5,” Trump said. “The way you win is to swamp them. If we swamp them, they can’t cheat. It just doesn’t work out. But if you can’t make it, you need to make a plan, register and vote any way possible.”
Evening Reads
—“Progressives urge Joe Biden to push harder on ‘Greedflation’” via Nicholas Nehamas, Jim Tankersley and Kellen Browning of The New York Times
—“Russian warships, including nuclear sub, missile frigate, will arrive in Cuba next week” via Nora Gamez Torres of The Sun Sentinel
—“Election certification disputes in a handful of states spark concerns over 2024 presidential contest” via Nicholas Riccardi and Joey Cappelletti of The Associated Press
—“What Kamala Harris isn’t talking about” via Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte of POLITICO Magazine
—“As Donald Trump threatens deportations, Miami’s undocumented grapple with uncertain future” via Syra Oritz Blanes and Max Greenwood of the Miami Herald
—“Florida has paid vendor $50 million so far for stalled plan to import Canadian drugs” via Jeffery Schweers of The Orlando Sentinel
—“Parents sue Florida Board of Education over book ban policy” via Mitch Perry of The Florida Phoenix
—”Revisiting history: Camp Gordon Johnston trained infantry for D-Day invasion” via Gerald Ensley of The Tallahassee Democrat
Quote of the Day
“It seems like if you don’t want people to abort their children, maybe you ought to help them educate them.”
— Sarasota County Commissioner Mark Smith, on the county cutting ties with the United Way because its helpline includes Planned Parenthood.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Attorney General Ashley Moody is suing The Directed Benefits Foundation after $142 million vanished into thin air. That kind of money could buy a cargo freighter full of Disappearing Acts.
Once again, The Southern Group posted monster lobbying compensation reports. Help the TSG team celebrate with a round of Money Makers.
Now that he’s off the hook, is it inbounds to order former UCF trustee Harold Mills an Indecent Exposure?
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Panthers continue quest for first Stanley Cup title
The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers open the Stanley Cup Finals on Saturday in Miami (8 p.m. ET, ABC).
Florida finished the regular season as the top team in the Atlantic Division and beat the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and the Eastern Conference’s top team, the New York Rangers in the playoffs.
Edmonton was the second-place team in the Pacific Division and eliminated the Los Angeles Kings, Vancouver Canucks, and Dallas Stars to earn a spot in the finals.
The two teams met twice in the regular season with the Panthers winning both games, 5-3 on Nov. 20 and 5-1 on Dec. 16. This is the first time the two teams have met in the playoffs.
The histories of the two teams are vastly different. The Oilers have won the Stanley Cup five times, including four times with Wayne Gretzky leading the way between 1984 and 1988. Edmonton also won the Staley Cup in 1990.
The Panthers have never won the Stanley Cup. This year marks the third time in the Finals for Florida.
Edmonton is led by Connor McDavid, one of the best players in the league, who is making his first Stanley Cup Finals appearance. McDavid finished third in the league in points and joined Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov atop the assist charts with 100. In the playoffs, he hasn’t slowed down, leading the NHL with 31 points and 26 assists in the postseason. The top four-point scorers in the playoffs are all Edmonton players.
Florida has relied on goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky who has allowed just 2.20 goals per game while winning 12 of 17 postseason starts.
The first two games of the best-of-seven series are scheduled to be played in Miami, then the series shifts to Edmonton for two.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
