Last Call for 6.25.24 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

New Morning Consult polls show President Joe Biden and his opponent, Donald Trump, are tied heading into Thursday’s debate.

The poll, conducted with 10,159 voters from June 21 to June 23, shows that both candidates are tied with 44% support. An additional 8% of voters favor a different candidate, and the remaining 4% are undecided.

For the eighth week straight, Biden was listed as having a higher net favorability than Trump, a trend that started during Trump’s hush-money trial. However, the poll also shows that Trump has the edge in maintaining his previous voters, holding 90% of votes who voted for him in 2020 while Biden holds 85%. Trump also has the edge among independents, holding 37% to Biden’s 34%.

The poll also showed shifting priorities on important issues for voters. While the economy remains voters’ greatest concern, now 65% of voters see immigration as a very important topic for the election, a 15% increase from the voters that listed the issue as important in November 2022. 56% of voters found abortion to also be a very important issue, the highest its been for Morning Consult’s polls since early 2024.

These results come after a poll from Morning Consult last week that showed Biden held negative approval ratings in 45 states, a shift from the 18 states that held such ratings when he entered office. The negative impact was especially felt in many swing states, with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin disapproving of the president’s job performance.

Florida’s increasingly Republican-leaning also mounts more pressure, with the state being projected to be highly competitive ahead of the election.

Biden and Trump will face off in their first debate on Thursday.

Evening Reads

—“Donald Trump could actually lose Florida. Here’s why.” via Mary Ellen Klas of Bloomberg

—“Pro-Trump extremists are sure he will win. That could be dangerous.” via Hannah Allam of The Washington Post

—“171,000 traveled for abortions last year. See where they went.” via Molly Cook Escobar, Amy Schoenfeld Walker, Allison McCann, Scott Reinhard and Helmuth Rosales of The New York Times

—”ChatGPT gave incorrect answers to questions about how to vote in battleground states” via Haley Ott of CBS News

—”Ron DeSantis just signed a law that will stop ethics investigations before they can start” via Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents

—”Abortion rights activists highlight Florida fight on anniversary of Roe v. Wade falling” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics

—”Catholic dioceses pump money into PAC fighting Florida’s proposed abortion amendment” via Creative Loafing Tampa Bay

—“UCF’s Board of Trustees approves camping ban following spring protests” via Alyssa Gary of the Orlando Sentinel

Quote of the Day

“It would turn Florida into San Francisco, or Chicago, or some of these places. We already have medical marijuana; it’s out there. But we got to keep our streets clean; we cannot have every town smelling like marijuana.”

— Gov. Ron DeSantis, claiming Amendment 3 would lead to half the state smelling like pot smoke.

Put It on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Given Gov. Ron DeSantis’ rhetoric on the recreational marijuana amendment, we think he’d be down to play the “Reefer Madness” drinking game. Just tell the bartender to have an extra keg of his fave — Guinness last we heard — on standby before pressing play.

The Florida Department of Law Enforcement has reportedly launched an investigation into Rep. Carolina Amesty. Help her by ordering a few Cheap Detectives for the gumshoes handling the case.

With multiple Florida Catholic dioceses pouring money into the anti-Amendment 4 effort, it’s time to revisit a contentious debate. No, not that one … we meant the one about which drink can claim the title “perfect Catholic cocktail.”

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Marlins searching for third straight series win

The Marlins continue a series with the Kansas City Royals with Miami looking to win a third straight series for the first time this year (8:10 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Florida).

Miami (27-51) had won only five series in the first three months of the season before taking two of three from both the St. Louis Cardinals and Seattle Mariners.

Last night, the Royals (43-37) took the first game of the series 4-1 behind home runs by Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, and Hunter Renfroe. The win by Kansas City snapped a three-game losing streak by the Royals.

Miami enters tonight’s game 25 games back in the National League East and 12 games out of the final wild-card spot in the NL. For Miami to make the playoffs, they must mount the largest turnaround in Major League Baseball history. No team has started so poorly and made the playoffs.

If there is a silver lining to the Marlins’ struggles, it is the recent play of first baseman Josh Bell, who has four multi-hit games in the last seven contests. Designated hitter Bryan DeLaCruz has collected nine hits in the past seven games. That and a couple of series wins are what passes for a hot streak for the 2024 Marlins.

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.