Vote No on 3’s own poll finds support for recreational pot ‘stagnant’ but above threshold to pass

Bills to cap pot potency were stamped out. Image via AP.

A campaign opposing the legalization of recreational marijuana has yet to move the needle with voters.

That’s according to the pollster working for the campaign opposing Amendment 3. Florida Politics obtained a poll that will be distributed to donors later Wednesday. The poll finds that support for the ballot initiative has not diminished. However, the campaign will tell its donors that the bright side is that opposition has grown.

Ryan Tyson, president and CEO of The Tyson Group, polled Florida voters in February and found 65% of likely General Election voters favor the amendment. Four months later, 64% support it.

Tyson’s latest poll surveyed 1,500 likely general voters and had a margin of error of 2.53%, an amount greater than the shift in support between polls.

But Tyson finds a positive spin. In a polling memo, he notes opposition to the amendment has grown from 22% in February to 27% now. That suggests the Vote on No campaign has moved voters while support remains “stagnant.”

“This is not where proponents of the amendment wanted to find themselves with just over three months until Election Day after spending nearly $5 million on television ads in multiple major markets across the state unanswered,” Tyson writes.

But the ballot measure will pass if 60% of voters approve it. That means if support stagnates at a higher level than that, supporters will have reason to light up cigars on Election Night and maybe other goods once implementing legislation kicks in. If Amendment 3 passes, the constitution will require Florida to legalize marijuana for adults 21 years old and older.

Still, Tyson believes a sound campaign opposing the ballot measure will weaken support, and there isn’t much amendment backers can afford to lose.

“Longtime observers of ballot initiatives in Florida will note that when running a ‘yes campaign,’ the goal is always to start 10% above the threshold you need to hit on Election Day,” he wrote. “Why? Once voters focus and start reading the details and nuances of ballot language, they start questioning it. That’s exactly what’s happening with Amendment 3 in Florida this election year.”

He also notes that the campaign supporting Amendment 3 went on air months ago with ads but stepped back in marketing. Smart & Safe Florida launched a $5 million campaign across all platforms in May.

“Not only are the supporters of Amendment 3 entering traditional campaign season at a historical disadvantage, they wasted valuable time and money pushing arguments that don’t hold up with Floridians,” Tyson wrote.

Of note, fundraising reports show the Smart & Safe Florida campaign has continued to fund campaign efforts, spending more than $2.26 million between June 1 and July 12.

Of course, the Vote No on 3 campaign also has its own ads up now. Last week, it announced a “vigorous and full-throated campaign” opposing Amendment 3.