As Florida Democrats gain momentum under Kamala Harris, Donald Trump can beat them on an unexpected issue – pot

A week ago, Florida seemed like a lost cause for Democrats. The Legislature has supermajorities in both chambers. The Governor is a Republican, and every member of his Cabinet is too.

Traditionally blue counties were starting to go red, and reliably blue South Florida has been trending more and more rightward over the past few election cycles.

Even after the Florida Supreme Court simultaneously allowed a ballot initiative to enshrine abortion protections into the state constitution and allowed a restrictive six-week abortion ban to take effect in the state – moves that gave Florida Democrats hope – former President Donald Trump still clearly had a hold on the state he now calls home.

President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race and the seeming coronation of Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor renewed optimism that Florida could be competitive again.

That’s not necessarily true.

A Redfield & Wilton Strategies/The Telegraph poll released this week found Trump leading Harris by eight percentage points, at 47% to 39%. A Newsweek polling analysis shows that Trump has a clear advantage. But there’s a word Newsweek used to describe the state of play in Florida this election cycle: competitive.

If you’re Trump, you want to have as many safe states as possible, especially ones rich in electoral votes like Florida, so you can focus efforts on the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt, where states can make or break presidential races.

So, for Trump, there’s a way to get Florida more squarely in his column, and it’s not even all that hard.

Endorse Amendment 3.

This November, at the same time they are casting ballots for President, Florida voters will decide whether to legalize cannabis for recreational use among adults age 21 or older.

This issue, paired with the abortion amendment, was thought to have been an advantage for Democrats, driving turnout among those more likely to vote for a Democrat. However, Trump has an opportunity to flip that on its head, offering him a boost in Florida and a talking point that could have national relevance in other states where the former President could use a shove.

One of Harris’ most significant weaknesses among Democratic voters is her record as a prosecutor, first as a District Attorney in San Francisco and then as California Attorney General. She faced criticism among progressives over prosecutions for drug offenses.

While the narrative has been at least partially challenged – there were relatively few of those convicted who served jail or prison time – Harris indeed oversaw nearly 2,000 misdemeanor and felony convictions for cannabis-related offenses. Trump, meanwhile, can tout granting amnesty to dozens of people convicted of cannabis-related crimes, some just as he was leaving office in early 2021.

It isn’t a new concept. Before Biden dropped out of the race, USA Today made the case that both men had an opportunity to boost their dismal popularity among voters, particularly young voters, by supporting at least some measure of pot legalization. The outlet rightly noted that the issue polls well across party lines.

But it’s not just young voters, a demographic Trump could use to put Florida – and likely other swing states – in his column. Overall, only 27% of Florida voters oppose recreational cannabis use legalization, according to a poll released this week by the campaign opposing Amendment 3.

A poll conducted June 26-29 and obtained by Florida Politics found an overwhelming majority of Florida voters support Amendment 3.

The demographic breakdowns within the poll, conducted among 1,065 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, shows Trump struggling among young voters between ages 18 and 29. And while the poll does not break out demographics on race, historical data and analyses suggest Trump’s support for recreational cannabis legalization could help improve his performance among young voters, a group with whom the former President has struggled.

While Trump commanded 49.9% support overall in that poll, which was taken when Biden was still the presumptive Democratic nominee, his support among voters 18-29 landed at just 17%. Those aged 30-39 like Trump a little more, but he still struggles there with just over 39% support.

Those age demographics overwhelmingly support pot legalization, signaling an opportunity for the former President to earn some support. A staggering 100% of voters aged 18-29 in the poll support Amendment 3. Adding to Trump’s opportunity here, 82% of voters aged 30-39 support the amendment.

And, of course, there’s the Black vote, a demographic that has historically supported Democratic candidates and that, with a woman of color at the top of the ticket, may be even more of a reach for Trump this cycle. Recent polls don’t get into racial demographics on Amendment 3 – at least not publicly – but looking back at the successful medical marijuana amendment in Florida in 2016, Black voters overwhelmingly favored it.

An overwhelming 71% of Black voters at the time were behind that amendment. White voters largely favored the amendment, too, at 66%.

According to a recent Ipsos poll, 55% of White voters indicate they favor Amendment 3.

It is well known that Trump himself does not partake – his vices are more along the lines of Diet Coke and golf – but his past support for offering amnesty to those convicted of low-level drug offenses signals an opportunity to support those who do and those who face criminal records as a result.

Politics, perhaps more than anything else, is a game of strategy.

Trump has already proven he’s damn good at it. But even if Florida feels safe for the former President, there’s a rule he should remember this cycle: Always run as if you’re losing.

There are few opportunities as strong as this one to solidify his lead in the Sunshine State, and even fewer that could deliver results specific to one state while still resonating in others. And he can do it all while snubbing his nose at his latest foe, painting Harris as the cop who didn’t care.