Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in Florida by 7 points; Rick Scott up 4 over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds a 7-percentage-point lead in Florida over likely Democratic opponent Kamala Harris. And in a heated Senate race, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott boasts a 4-point lead over likely Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

But neither Republican holds majority support in the Sunshine State.

That’s all according to the latest poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab.

The survey of likely General Election voters found 49% plan to back Trump in November, while only 42% will support Harris. Another 4% plan to vote for another candidate, while 6% describe themselves as undecided.

“It’s not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020,” said PORL faculty director Michael Binder. “With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida.”

As for Scott, about 47% say they want the former Governor serving a second term in the Senate. About 43%, meanwhile, intend to back Mucarsel-Powell. Less than 1% intend to support another candidate, notable as both face Primary opposition. A full 10% of respondents said they remain undecided on who to support in the Senate contest.

“What’s really interesting is that Trump has a couple point bigger lead than Rick Scott, who’s only up by four — just inside the margin of error of this poll,” Binder said. “Scott has a history of winning razor thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly more red in the past six years, this could be another close race for Scott.”

Pollsters report a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.

Scott won his Senate seat by a historically close margin, toppling Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in 2018. His edge over Mucarsel-Powell certainly projects a greater advantage than that. But he still needs to win over a substantial portion of uncommitted voters to feel comfortable in his re-election bid.

Trump’s lead also appears more than his 3-percentage point win over Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, when he lost the nationwide election.

Still, the poll results fly in the face of a growing Republican lean in voter registration, an edge that now seems almost certain to exceed 1 million voters before November. Additionally, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022 won re-election by a landslide 19 points and Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio won by a similar 17 points.