Jacob Ogles
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds a 7-percentage-point lead in Florida over likely Democratic opponent Kamala Harris. And in a heated Senate race, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott boasts a 4-point lead over likely Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
But neither Republican holds majority support in the Sunshine State.
That’s all according to the latest poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab.
The survey of likely General Election voters found 49% plan to back Trump in November, while only 42% will support Harris. Another 4% plan to vote for another candidate, while 6% describe themselves as undecided.
“It’s not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020,” said PORL faculty director Michael Binder. “With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida.”
As for Scott, about 47% say they want the former Governor serving a second term in the Senate. About 43%, meanwhile, intend to back Mucarsel-Powell. Less than 1% intend to support another candidate, notable as both face Primary opposition. A full 10% of respondents said they remain undecided on who to support in the Senate contest.
“What’s really interesting is that Trump has a couple point bigger lead than Rick Scott, who’s only up by four — just inside the margin of error of this poll,” Binder said. “Scott has a history of winning razor thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly more red in the past six years, this could be another close race for Scott.”
Pollsters report a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.
Scott won his Senate seat by a historically close margin, toppling Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson in 2018. His edge over Mucarsel-Powell certainly projects a greater advantage than that. But he still needs to win over a substantial portion of uncommitted voters to feel comfortable in his re-election bid.
Trump’s lead also appears more than his 3-percentage point win over Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, when he lost the nationwide election.
Still, the poll results fly in the face of a growing Republican lean in voter registration, an edge that now seems almost certain to exceed 1 million voters before November. Additionally, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022 won re-election by a landslide 19 points and Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio won by a similar 17 points.
17 comments
Ron Ogden
July 30, 2024 at 7:38 am
Seven percent? Good Lord there hasn’t been a pasting like that since Dukakis!
Ninety Three
July 30, 2024 at 8:48 am
Just wait until all the dirt comes out about her wacko liberal positions. Maybe the oligarchs lead by 84 year old Pelosi will pull her as well.🤣
nail
August 1, 2024 at 7:02 am
F Off MAGAt. No one believes the MAGAt lies and BS…Go back to Russia and serve your owner…He wants you on the front line to help Zelensky..He wants see you as what you are, cannon fodder.
Dont Say FLA
July 30, 2024 at 9:28 am
Are people really gonna vote for Trump/Vance when Trump’s gotta Trump and Jadie Vance, barely just nominated as VP, already inspired a psychopath to murder little girls at a yoga studio that was having Taylor Swift day because they might have grown up to be childless cat ladies? I don’t think so.
Ninety Three
July 30, 2024 at 11:06 am
Um. This kid is a resident of the U.K. I bet he doesn’t know who JD Vance is. Just like people in this country couldn’t tell you who the PM of England is. What silly message board do you get your info from?
Michael K
July 30, 2024 at 11:16 am
Last night, a Zoom call broke the internet when more than 200,000 “White Dudes For Harris” joined forces to help elect the first woman as president. It was characterized as a “rainbow of beige.” They raised more than $4 million.
I don’t think the party of an angry old white man is going to know what hit them.
Ninety Three
July 30, 2024 at 11:37 am
There he goes again with identity politics. So Ka Mana going to be in Atlanta today with Megan Thee Stalion. I was disappointed to see that Cardi B won’t be with them. I always thought Cardi wrote WAP with Ka Mana in mind. That’s how she got ahead right?
nail
August 1, 2024 at 7:07 am
Does it hurt to be as dumb as trump? It must because FL lost over 3 million MAGA to other states…that is why DeFascist only received 3.7% of Florida as the next worst MAGA President….they don’t support the MAGAt and there are not enough crazies and old MAGAt to get trump anywhere but in Rikers in September…
Ninety Three
July 30, 2024 at 11:42 am
Let’s see. 4 million divided by 200,000 white dudes. That’s $20 per person and that’s not counting the other folks. Most of them probably from Kalifornia, New York, Illinois, etc.
nail
August 1, 2024 at 7:09 am
WRONG! Mot ion the funds came from Florida…They had funds for a Honest Dem but not liars, sneaks, and thieves of there MAGAt persuasion…
3.7% defascist…how easily the mentally impaired forget…
nail
August 1, 2024 at 7:04 am
No funds for any MAGA down vote of crazies…This is the end of MAGAts….If the GOP does not take their party back, MAGAts and the GOP are dead…they will never see the White House…
Bernard Tessier
July 30, 2024 at 2:40 pm
All I know is America as to get rid of Trump madness with is lies, scam, and manipulation. The Mob as to go out.
Childless Cat Lady
July 30, 2024 at 3:22 pm
70% of Florida residents support a woman’s right to family planning health care, including abortion on demand. Wait another two month and show me the polling.
VOTE FOR HER!
Margaret Jones
July 30, 2024 at 3:52 pm
Trump is a criminal, liar, sex abuser who brags about it. He lies every time he opens his mouth. He says he’s a Christian but the Bible says, “by their works ye shall know them.” He sows anger, hatred and discord. His party denies healthcare to women with dangerous pregnancies who have to be bleeding out or on the verge of death to get medical care. He offers anger and “retribution” but literally has no policy platform or stated policy goals other than the general “MAGA” slogans. Empty of ideas, empty of spiritual values. He’s out for himself, his brand, his billions. he raped his wife Ivana Trump according to Ivana Trump herself during their divorce proceedings. Let that sink in.
Scarlett
July 31, 2024 at 1:22 pm
The winds of change are howling and a lot of ppl are finding themselves tasting the dust of a younger progressive generation. Trump fever is broken
Yrral
August 1, 2024 at 8:04 am
Is Trump on drugs,he been accused of using drugs,while President Google Trump Drug Stimulants
nail
August 7, 2024 at 6:08 pm
trump has been on drugs for 40 years…He was diagnosed as having ADHD since he was in grammar school..Never diagnosed until later in life he started taking Adderall in his 30’s…Now he crushes Adderall and snorts it…It was reported when the Pentagon went into the White House and raided the ex fat ones Pharmacy that his used to be Doctor Ronny Jackson lost his Marines commission because he was handing out prescription meds to anyone who wanted them and never kept track of them…
We all know that Jr is a coke addict and trump has been known to use coke with his son…
Why do you think he never got any help for his son? He would loose his dealer!~! His son is constantly serviced by the EMTs of Jupiter…I live down the street from him and the EMTs goes on auto pilot to his home…We are waiting for the day the Epipen with a drug reversal…
Look up for yourself the drugs they had under trump in the WH pharmacy…
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