Jesse Scheckner
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding lead over Donald Trump in Miami-Dade, where Democrats are poised to win or hold onto several countywide offices in the coming General Election, according to new polling.
Among likely voters, Harris leads the former President by a whopping 15 percentage points. That includes a 23-point lead among no-party voters.
Pollsters from Plantation-based MDW Communications surveyed 1,071 Miami-Dade voters Aug. 1-5. The poll, commissioned by political strategist Christian Ulvert’s EDGE Communications, was modeled with a +5 Democratic turnout, with the makeup being 38% Democrat, 33% Republican and 29% no-party voters.
Among all county voters, 53.8% say they support Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for President. For Trump, the support was 39.5%, with 6.7% of respondents saying they are undecided.
Among, no-party voters, 55.3% support Harris, compared to 31.7% for Trump and 13% who are on the proverbial fence.
“In the first countywide poll of likely General Election voters in Miami-Dade County since Vice President Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee,” Ulvert said in a statement, “(her) lead in the largest Hispanic majority county in the state of Florida affirms the coalition of voters who are excited to look ahead rather than go backwards.”
The poll indicates that enthusiasm for Harris should translate into down-ballot victories for several other Democrats (and Ulvert clients) in Miami-Dade.
In a theoretical head-to-head matchup for Sheriff, Democratic Miami-Dade Public Safety Chief James Reyes leads Assistant Miami-Dade Police Director Rosie Cordero-Stutz, a Republican and Trump endorsee, by 10 points.
Reyes faces three Primary opponents. Cordero-Stutz faces 10 Republicans, some of whom polled higher than her in earlier surveys by Ulvert and the conservative Dark Horse Strategies consulting firm.
MDW only provided Reyes and Cordero-Stutz as options. Twenty-six percent of respondents say they are undecided.
For Clerk and Comptroller, 45% of respondents say they support Annette Taddeo, a former state Senator and Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chair, over incumbent Republican Juan Fernandez-Barquin, a former state Representative whom Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed to the post in June 2023.
Fernandez-Barquin receives 35.5% support. The remaining 19.5% of respondents say they are undecided. MDW did not provide write-in candidate Rubin Young as an option.
Former Miami Beach Commissioner and state Rep. David Richardson, a Democrat, has 41.5% support in the county’s Tax Collector race compared to 33% for Republican Miami-Dade Community Council member Dariel Fernandez.
Internal polling Ulvert conducted in May found Richardson enjoyed a 10-point lead over another GOP candidate, ex-Hialeah Council member Bryan Calvo.
In the Supervisor of Elections race, Democratic ethics and elections lawyer J.C. Planas has a 7-point lead over Miami Republican Rep. Alina García, with 23% of respondents saying they are undecided.
MDW did not ask respondents about two other Democrats in the race, political consultant Willis Howard and digital media entrepreneur Arnie Weiss, both of whom Planas leads in fundraising, endorsements and campaign activity.
In keeping with statewide movement, Miami-Dade has shifted redder in recent years. Trump lost the county by 30 points in 2016. Four years later, he lost there by 7.
That’s the margin by which Trump is on track to win Florida, according to a late July poll by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab that also found incumbent U.S. Sen. Rick Scott leading by 4 points against likely Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who previously represented Miami-Dade in the U.S. House.
The Primary is on Aug. 20, followed by the General Election on Nov. 5.
12 comments
Yrral
August 8, 2024 at 1:47 pm
Trump lawyer Jenna Ellis was granted immunity in Arizona,too go before an grand jury to testify against Trump,in his role to subvert the election process in Arizona Google Jenna Ellis Trump Arizona Electors
Raul Chavez
August 10, 2024 at 12:43 pm
Yo more fake polls like 2016 when polls said kkkillary kkklinton was up over Trump by 60 points lol our latino vote gonna make sure Trump back in white house in 4 months #LATINOSFORTRUMP
rick whitaker
August 10, 2024 at 5:12 pm
RAUL, are you the the same raul that james earl ray got his weapon from ?
Michael K
August 8, 2024 at 1:55 pm
It’s a Blue tsunami – decent people rejecting divisive culture wars.
Raul Chavez
August 10, 2024 at 12:44 pm
Yo more fake polls like 2016 when polls said kkkillary kkklinton was up over Trump by 60 points lol our latino vote gonna make sure Trump back in white house in 4 months #LATINOSFORTRUMP
Childless Cat Lady
August 8, 2024 at 9:43 pm
Trump is a horrible role model for America’s youth.
Raul Chavez
August 10, 2024 at 12:44 pm
Yo more fake polls like 2016 when polls said kkkillary kkklinton was up over Trump by 60 points lol our latino vote gonna make sure Trump back in white house in 4 months #LATINOSFORTRUMP
Seth
August 9, 2024 at 11:46 am
This CANNOT be accurate. The Hispanic community, especially those from Cuba see the left going more and more left and they HATE socialism. Harris didn’t go from being THE least popular vice president ever to becoming the darling Democrat front runner, they very likely committed treason lying on the status of Biden’s ability to actually DO the job and then pushed him out in a silent coup that required no votes from anyone. They say democracy is on the line in this election. I couldn’t agree more. From both sides. One has been loud about it, the other is much much more sinister. We need balance and more than two parties. Also, what’s with each candidate picking a joke of a vice president?! I get with Trump the strategy is to keep them from constantly trying to impeach him because President Vance scares even the right. Kamala is afraid of the Palestine brigade and the LGBT crew, so the better guy got pushed aside because he’s Jewish.
Ronald Hoffman
August 9, 2024 at 2:25 pm
My family is from Austria-Hungary and from their experience during WW !! my Mother offered her children the opportunity to learn about the development of Nazism in the homeland as well as the ultimate solution of the mass killings in concentration camps. ‘Remember Us’, a documentary from the 1950’s left an impression with all us siblings of the hate and bigotry toward Jews, Gays, the handicapped and other citizens. Remember the past and learn from previous events and from history as history repeats itself. Trump, the cultists, and the conservative Christians are the major supporters of the MAGA. Conservative Christians that dictate morality to society are willing to sleep with the Devil in order to promote their personal values and cause by supporting Trump. They are willing to commit sin themselves en mass by joining the MAGA force that promotes hate and bigotry against Jews, Gays, and those that support ‘the right to chose’,, books in libraries, ‘non-traditional’ families., teachers, medical staff, etc. They came after the Jews, they came after the Homosexuals, they came after ME.
Raul Chavez
August 10, 2024 at 12:41 pm
Nah Florida Red now bigtime all ya’ll commie demoKKKrats fake polls ain’t stoppin our latino vote from puttin Trump back in white house in 4 months #LATINOSFORTRUMP
Raul Chavez
August 10, 2024 at 12:44 pm
#LATINOSFORTRUMP
rick whitaker
August 10, 2024 at 5:15 pm
#latinosforrump did you say? no , i don’t want to be bent over by maga, no thanks.
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