A.G. Gancarski
The Donald Trump campaign for President isn’t happy with new polling of three states pivotal to Kamala Harris’ campaign.
“The latest swing state polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin conducted by the New York Times and Siena College helpfully include the recalled 2020 presidential vote between President Trump and Joe Biden. They have dramatically understated President Trump’s support both among all registered voters and in their likely-voter model. In each state, the gap between the survey’s recalled 2020 vote and the reported 2020 election results is more than the margin between Kamala Harris and President Trump. Once again, we see a series of public surveys released with the clear intent and purpose of depressing support for President Trump,” claims the “confidential memo” from pollster Tony Fabrizio and chief data consultant Tim Saler.
The poll has Harris up 50% to 46% in all three states polled among likely voters.
But Trump’s pollsters urge a closer look.
“Even with the understatement of President Trump’s 2020 support and an unrepresentative weighting scheme relative to their Electoral Vote weights between the three states, President Trump leads by +1 (47-46) among independents in the head-to-head ballot, has more than doubled his support among all registered black voters since 2020, is essentially tied among those of Latino or Asian heritage, has narrowed the gap among those aged 18-29 to single digits, and leads among registered voters who are new to the electorate and did not participate in 2020,” the memo continues.
“This is nothing new, as NYT / Siena College polls have historically understated President Trump’s vote share. In the final poll completed just four days before the 2020 election, they found President Trump trailing in Pennsylvania by 6 points (49-43) and trailing in Wisconsin by 11 points (52-41). Eight days before the 2020 presidential election, they found President Trump trailing in Michigan by 8 points (49-41).”
For its part, the pollsters say their survey shows the race has changed.
““It’s a new race across the rustbelt battleground states now that former President Donald Trump is facing Vice-President Kamala Harris instead of President Joe Biden. Harris has opened up leads of 4 points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with strong support from women, younger voters, Blacks and those with a college education. Trump continues to be seen by voters as better on the economy and immigration but by much smaller margins than Trump had led Biden. Harris leads according to voters on abortion and protecting our democracy by wide margins,” according to Don Levy, polling director for Siena College Research Institute.
11 comments
PeterH
August 10, 2024 at 1:10 pm
NYT Kamala Harris – Walz are now ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin! She has changed the dynamics in this race. A Blue Tsunami is coming in November!
Today’s GQP MUST be destroyed before it can be rebuilt from the ground up. Get rid of MAGA. Get rid of the FREEDUMB caucus clowns! Get rid of MTG and the Qanon quacks!
Republicans are America’s worst enemy!
Vote all Republicans out of office!
Day 20
August 10, 2024 at 1:12 pm
Another zombie happy with high inflation, high fuel prices, no border control, high crime, wars across the world, etc. a zombies dream come true
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Michael K
August 10, 2024 at 1:21 pm
Trunp’s schtick is old and stale. The anger and petty grievances are as unattractive as the candidate himself. America does not want a bitter old man who lies incessantly. We rejected this re-run once already.
The energy and excitement are with a new generation who loves America and represents all Americans. It’s a historic phenomenon, people are ready to make history.
Day 20
August 10, 2024 at 1:40 pm
Bitter old man. Funny. Yet you were all on board with bitter Joe. Lots of zombie humor today. Thanks Michael H.
Day 20
August 10, 2024 at 1:40 pm
K. Then again maybe you and Peter are the same guy🤣
tom palmer
August 10, 2024 at 2:54 pm
I would be more interested in what the polls say in late October.
ELVIS "Professor/Scientist/Social Worker" American
August 10, 2024 at 2:58 pm
Good afternoon,
All polling always favors the “Dook 4 Brains Leftist” candidates
Really I, ELVIS, hope nobody out there does not already know this.
ELVIS
MH/Duuuval
August 10, 2024 at 3:40 pm
So, what’s this I hear about a helicopter ride DJT took with old Willie Brown, Jr.?
Day 20
August 10, 2024 at 3:42 pm
Either Trump is full of it or Willie is as senile as Joe and Pelosi.
ELVIS "Professor/Scientist/Social Worker" American
August 10, 2024 at 4:14 pm
Good afternoon Dook 4 Brains Leftys,
You Dook For Brains Lefty commenters are so cute in how y’all will glome onto each and every 1/2 baked lie and fake poll which comes your way. Knowing full well that your party €FFED up so badly under Harris/Biden that you dont have a political leg to stand on.
Thank you Dook 4 Brains Leftys,
ELVIS “Truth Teller”