Gabrielle Russon
A new poll shows November’s abortion rights initiative might not have enough support to pass, although a high number of voters — 23% — are still undecided.
To enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution, Amendment 4 needs at least 60% of the vote. But about 56% of all voters support the initiative, according to the latest numbers from Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA.
“With this being a presidential year, many of the people who would turn out to vote on one of these ballot initiatives would probably turnout anyway to vote for a president,” FAU Assistant Political Science Professor Luzmarina Garcia said. “These voters that don’t know how they would vote if faced with the ballot initiative could go either way come November.”
The poll was done Aug. 10 to 11 among 1,055 registered Florida voters in both English and Spanish. The margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, the group said.
“For males, 54% were in support of the abortion amendment compared to 59% of women, and 62% of 18- to 49-year-olds are in support,” FAU said in a press release. “For Democrats, 80% are in support compared to 35% of Republicans, while 59% of Independents are in support.”
An earlier poll from University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab said Amendment 4’s support was higher, at 69% of the vote. That poll, conducted July 24 through July 27, had an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.
The FAU poll also asked voters about their opinions on the presidential race, the U.S. Senate race and the other high-profile amendment on the November ballot to legalize marijuana.
In Florida, the state’s six-week abortion ban went into effect May 1. A grassroots effort had been under way to collect signatures and put Amendment 4 on the ballot. The initiative says no law shall prohibit abortion before viability.
Medical professionals involved in the campaign have said some women find out after six weeks if their unborn child has a debilitating defect. Other women who cannot afford expanding their family don’t even know they are pregnant until after six weeks.
The Catholic Church is funding opposition groups to campaign against Amendment 4. Gov. Ron DeSantis has also vowed to fight it.
The latest setback for the Amendment 4 campaign is a state panel that quickly became partisan and approved a financial impact statement that will appear on the ballot beneath the initiative’s wording.
In part, the financial impact statement says: “The proposed amendment would result in significantly more abortions and fewer live births per year in Florida. The increase in abortions could be even greater if the amendment invalidates laws requiring parental consent before minors undergo abortions and those ensuring only licensed physicians perform abortions. There is also uncertainty about whether the amendment will require the state to subsidize abortions with public funds. Litigation to resolve those and other uncertainties will result in additional costs to the state government.”
The group backing Amendment 4 argues the statement is unfair and inaccurate and is petitioning the state Supreme Court to nullify it.
11 comments
rbruce
August 14, 2024 at 12:11 pm
Elective abortions are ghoulish. There are legitimate reasons to end a pregnancy, but convenience is not one of them.
Dont Say FLA
August 17, 2024 at 11:04 am
I cannot say that I disagree. Considering prophylactic medicines implants and even latex penis coats and considering morning-after medicines that prevent pregnancy, there’s little reason for a procedural abortion these days, IMHO
And you know what, if that’s how you feel, as I do, try to influence your gf, wife, daughter(s), grand daughter(s) not to have (another) one if she gets pregnant due to recklessness or the extremely rare failure of prophylactics when used properly.
Beyond that, however, everybody please vote to protect the medical rights of individuals and the overall quality of overall in the state from the political ghouls on the extreme right.
cassandra was right
August 19, 2024 at 1:57 am
Recklessness? You must mean the man. It is reckless for anyone to inject his sperm into a woman unless he is one hundred percent certain that they both want to start a pregnancy (right then!).
Get the government out of the doctor’s office!
Vote YES on 4
MarvinM
August 17, 2024 at 12:03 pm
I look forward to your support of contraception access.
Fewer pregnancies equals fewer potential abortions.
cassandra was right
August 19, 2024 at 1:23 am
Only the person who’s pregnant gets to decide what is legitimate. It’s ridiculous to even be discussing somebody else’s body as if you have any right at all to determine what she does with it.
Vote YES on 4
Michael S
August 14, 2024 at 12:25 pm
Polling ‘registered’ voters as opposed to ‘likely’ voters is a red flag on accuracy. Even in presidential election years turnout is 60% of registered voters, so, in this poll you could have 40% opinion that is irrelevant to the actual outcome beyond normal sampling error.
I agree the financial impact statement is flawed. How can the authors assure that anything ‘would’ happen in the future? Where is the evidence that supports that assertion?
Dont Say FLA
August 17, 2024 at 11:07 am
How could there even be an economic impact statement when the economic impact of the newly enacted 6 week ban is still anybody’s guess?
MAGA extremists say “Economic impacts statement for thee, but not for meee”
Dennis Rees
August 14, 2024 at 2:10 pm
49 per cent of abortions are undertaken by women who live at or below the federal poverty line. Of course the financial impact statement didn’t include the potential cost to the State of having to subsidize such families. There is no uncertainty about whether the amendment will require the state to subsidize abortions with public funds – it doesn’t. What is certain is that State will have to cover the cost of the birth for those who live at or below the poverty line.
Let’s be clear, this is a deceptive financial impact statement that reads like an ad written by Amendment 4 opponents — highly-politicized and unlawfully inaccurate to mislead voters on Amendment 4.
Read this for a thorough dsicussion of the cost of abortion bans:
https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2022-06/counting-cost-abortion-ban
YesOnFour
August 15, 2024 at 5:37 pm
We’re not undecided. It’s between us and our physicians.
cassandra was right
August 15, 2024 at 6:58 pm
Abortion rights are not controversial. 80% of Americans want the government out of abortion decisions. EVERY abortion rights amendment—even in red states— has passed! Florida’s will too! The faulty, misleading FAU poll and the deceptive financial impact statement are voter suppression attempts that show just how much Amendment 4 is needed. Vote for FREEDOM from government interference in personal decisions. Vote YES on 4
Jojo
August 16, 2024 at 7:52 am
I suspect most polls but this one really stinks.1055 Floridians? How many people actually answer their phones from an unidentified caller? Certainly not the demographic that is most impacted by this draconian law.
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