Poll: Abortion rights initiative short of 60% needed to pass, but nearly 1/4 of voters undecided

A new poll shows November’s abortion rights initiative might not have enough support to pass, although a high number of voters — 23% — are still undecided.

To enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution, Amendment 4 needs at least 60% of the vote. But about 56% of all voters support the initiative, according to the latest numbers from Florida Atlantic University Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA.

“With this being a presidential year, many of the people who would turn out to vote on one of these ballot initiatives would probably turnout anyway to vote for a president,” FAU Assistant Political Science Professor Luzmarina Garcia said. “These voters that don’t know how they would vote if faced with the ballot initiative could go either way come November.”

The poll was done Aug. 10 to 11 among 1,055 registered Florida voters in both English and Spanish. The margin of error was +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, the group said.

“For males, 54% were in support of the abortion amendment compared to 59% of women, and 62% of 18- to 49-year-olds are in support,” FAU said in a press release. “For Democrats, 80% are in support compared to 35% of Republicans, while 59% of Independents are in support.”

An earlier poll from University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab said Amendment 4’s support was higher, at 69% of the vote. That poll, conducted July 24 through July 27, had an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

The FAU poll also asked voters about their opinions on the presidential race, the U.S. Senate race and the other high-profile amendment on the November ballot to legalize marijuana.

In Florida, the state’s six-week abortion ban went into effect May 1. A grassroots effort had been under way to collect signatures and put Amendment 4 on the ballot. The initiative says no law shall prohibit abortion before viability.

Medical professionals involved in the campaign have said some women find out after six weeks if their unborn child has a debilitating defect. Other women who cannot afford expanding their family don’t even know they are pregnant until after six weeks.

The Catholic Church is funding opposition groups to campaign against Amendment 4. Gov. Ron DeSantis has also vowed to fight it.

The latest setback for the Amendment 4 campaign is a state panel that quickly became partisan and approved a financial impact statement that will appear on the ballot beneath the initiative’s wording.

In part, the financial impact statement says: “The proposed amendment would result in significantly more abortions and fewer live births per year in Florida. The increase in abortions could be even greater if the amendment invalidates laws requiring parental consent before minors undergo abortions and those ensuring only licensed physicians perform abortions. There is also uncertainty about whether the amendment will require the state to subsidize abortions with public funds. Litigation to resolve those and other uncertainties will result in additional costs to the state government.”

The group backing Amendment 4 argues the statement is unfair and inaccurate and is petitioning the state Supreme Court to nullify it.