Voter turnout in Pinellas not on pace to exceed 2020 Primary

With the morning rush over, voter turnout in Pinellas County had reached nearly 21% as of 9:45 a.m. But that number doesn’t appear on pace to meet turnout levels from the last Primary during a Presidential Election year.

To put this year’s number into perspective, voter turnout four years ago in the 2020 Primary reached 31.3%, with nearly 215,000 ballots cast. Of those, more than 31,000 cast a ballot on Election Day at their polling place, while just over 180,000 voted by mail.

This year, just shy of 119,000 people had voted by mail, a drop of more than 60,000 from four years ago. Election Day turnout in the first hours of polls being opened was at less than 5,000, meaning more than 26,000 people would still have to cast ballots before 7 p.m. to match totals from 2020.

Early voting did exceed levels seen four years ago, reaching nearly 5,000 ballots cast, compared to less than 4,000 in 2020. But that difference doesn’t come close to making up other deficits from the last Presidential Election cycle.

If the trend holds, a drop in voter turnout could simply be the result of a smaller ballot. Four years ago, there were several competitive races on the ballot, while this year there were relatively few for either Republican or Democratic voters.

On the Republican side, voters were confronted with a noncompetitive Primary for U.S. Senate at the top of the ticket; a Primary for Florida’s 14th Congressional District, where the Republican nominee will face nearly impossible odds of winning the General Election; a noncompetitive state Senate Primary; a noncompetitive open Primary for Supervisor of Elections; and a canceled race for a County Commission seat after one of the two candidates withdrew.

Translation: not much to vote for there.

Democrats had a bit more on their ballot, but not much. They also have a fairly noncompetitive Primary for U.S. Senate at the top of the ticket and the same Supervisor of Elections contest that features a popular incumbent and a relatively unheard of election denier. But they do have a competitive Primary for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, where Democrats have perhaps their best hope this cycle of gaining a seat in Florida’s delegation.

There are also a few nonpartisan races that appear on various ballots, depending on where voters are located. But those are typically low-interest, down-ballot races such as School Board, town races and judicial contests. The School Board races this year may draw more interest than in previous years, with two of the races targeted by Gov. Ron DeSantis, but turnout so far doesn’t appear to be showing an uptick.

And the slightly more competitive ballot before Democrats is apparent showing up in the party breakdown of turnout so far, with nearly 55,000 Democrats having cast a ballot, compared to just shy of 52,000 for Republicans. No-party voters, who really don’t have much to vote for in this election, have only reached about 20,000 in turnout.

Democrats have returned more mail ballots than Republicans, narrowly, at just under 51,000 to just over 47,000. But GOP voters turn out slightly more in early voting, at 2,234 to 2,215, and so far on Election Day voting, at about 3,200 to 2,000.

Primaries always struggle with voter turnout compared to General Elections. While turnout in the 2020 Primary was just 31%, General Election turnout that year was more than 79%.